2008 U.S. Presidential Election - Electoral Vote Analysis Guide

We'll start in the Northeast where it appears that Obama has a stranglehold on New England and the northern portion of the east coast.

Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), The District of Columbia (3), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4) and Vermont (3) are all polling very strongly to the Democratic candidate.

If Obama were to take each of these states, he would win 117 electoral votes.

Strategies for Obama - Obama needs to maintain the long history of democratic success in the northeast and take advantage of the vast metropolitan areas on the east coast that tend to vote Democrat. They are his states to lose.

Strategies for McCain - McCain's biggest hope is to steal Pennsylvania, which is currently hotly contested in the polls. Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes would be valuable, and may be the only state within his reach in the northeast.

As the northeast is normally a Democratic haven, the Republicans have had better luck in the South.

Alabama (9), Arkansas (6 - despite being won twice by the home-state Bill Clinton), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), North Carolina (15), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5) all are polling well for McCain or are historic bastions for the Republican party. It will be difficult to wrestle these states from McCain, and close states will no doubt be fought over.

Strategies for Obama - Obama is holding onto a small lead in Virgina and fighting hard for North Carolina, a state even Clinton couldn't win from either Bush or Dole. If Obama were to take either of these states at 13 and 15 electoral votes respectively, he might be able to break the back of McCain's campaign.

Strategies for McCain - Just as Obama has a huge base in the northeast, McCain must preserve his southern support. Big ticket states like Texas and Florida provide a huge boost, but each of the above states will be required to have a chance of catching up to Obama. Watch McCain fight hard in VA and NC as the months tick away.

The South has a whopping 173 electoral votes.

This is where a great deal of political sparring will take place and key states in this region may just decide the election.

Illinois (21 - Obama's home state), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10) and Wisconsin (10) are polling well and are historic Democrat strongholds. (65 votes)

Meanwhile, Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3) and South Dakota (3) seem to be a lock for the Republicans. (28 votes)

The two wild cards are Missouri (11) and Ohio (20) which have both candidates polling neck and neck since May. Both of these states will be critical and, as it is often trotted out, no candidate in U.S. Presidential history has gone to the White House without winning Ohio.

Strategies for Obama - Maintain a firm hold of states that he is likely to win and barring anything else, throw all of his effort at Ohio.

Strategies for McCain - McCain may find himself fighting for his life in Missouri, but much energy and attention will have to be spent on Ohio. He can't win without it.

These states seem locked up, but some good activity is possible on the West Coast and in the Rockies.

Strong Democratic ties give Obama a strong hold on heavyweight California (55), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7) and Washington (11) for a total of 82 electoral votes.

McCain boosts the Republicans with Alaska (3), Arizona (10 - a lock for his home state), Colorado (9), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Utah (5) and Wyoming (3) for a less impressive 37 votes.

Only Nevada (5) is really up for grabs, but with bigger prizes back east, don't expect to hear much about it.

Strategies for Obama and McCain - This election will be won and lost east of the Rockies.

McCain may manage to take Nevada and Colorado, both close races, and maybe make headway in Oregon which would be unheard of for a Republican since Reagan, but these 3 would not be a decent trade for Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania under the circumstances.

Barack Obama can probably count on the following states:

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Iowa (7)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)

Total = 264 Electoral Votes

John McCain can probably count on the following states:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

Total = 238 Electoral Votes

At first glance this looks like a closer fight than the polls indicate, even if Obama is tantalizingly close to the 270 votes needed to win.

These figures don't take into account the following states:

Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
Ohio (20)

Obama is in a unique position. Assuming he can win Missouri and maintain the states listed above, he would be the first President to win without the help of Ohio (at least mathematically). Given a chance to bet I would expect Missouri to be more likely to go to McCain and Nevada would not be enough to give Obama 270 votes (winning Nevada but not Missouri and Ohio would make it a 269-269 tie).

Solution: Obama must fight for Ohio.

McCain is in the same boat but his road is tougher. With 238 electoral votes, if he takes Ohio and Missouri, but loses Nevada, then it would be a tie. He must take those last 3 states, Ohio again being key in order to vault to 274 votes.

Solution: Campaign hard in Ohio, Missouri and Nevada.

...but Nevada and Missouri are likely to follow the Bush voting pattern and go with McCain. That leaves Ohio.

Result: The Buckeye State will be visited more often than any other state and will be brought up countless times, especially considering its Always-Produces-A-Winner history.

Who will win it? That's the toughest call of all 51 electoral vote bodies. Given Obama's stranglehold over the Midwest and civic likability, he will surely carry the Democrat-heavy urban areas, but McCain will carry the farmer and worker laden rural areas, splitting Ohio down the middle.

The key issues that will break the deadlock will be regrowth of industry in the area and support for farmers. Since these are issues that McCain has to champion to win the state, it seems like it's Obama's state to lose. We'll see.

Either way, whoever wins Ohio will once again be President of the United States.

The biggest development of this election will be the selection of each candidates' running mates.

As of July 15, neither Senator Obama or Senator McCain has selected a Vice-President to join his campaign. This will probably be rectified at the DNC and RNC held August 25-28 and September 1-4, respectively.

Speculation hasn't provided much information other than names, and no one seems like a front runner. The right VP candidate can make a big difference in turning states from blue to red and back. (Clinton, for example, although unlikely as Obama's running mate could help steal her home state of Arkansas where husband Bill was Governor).

July 21 - The News is reporting McCain spending time with Giuliani while in N.Y. I don't know who else he'd hang out with in N.Y. and he may be there just to compare notes for the campaign or to encourage Rudy to be his running mate.

July 23 - Obama is continuing his whirlwind tour of the Middle East and Europe, gaining some much needed street cred. Meanwhile, McCain is talking to domestic crowds and name dropping Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota.

McCain has also started T.V. advertising with some attack ads against Obama. Obama seems to have gotten bored deflecting criticisms (he's been hit with a LOT over the last 6 months) and is just going forward overseas. Will Obama pack some mud in the home stretch?

July 29 - Obama seems to have gotten a big boost from his Europe/Middle East Tour and is reaping the benefits in national polls. Now the focus is turning towards picking a VP candidate. Today's pundits were presenting 6-7 candidates for each Presidential candidate, and a couple on each side stand out.

Obama is looking at, among others, Tim Kaine, Virginia Governor and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Apparantly, Obama is tapping Bayh as his communications director there, and is running t.v. ads. It might be more valuable to him to keep Bayh on the payroll as a staffer and elevate Kaine to VP, who might be able to help the push for Virginia and North Carolina. If Obama can use these gents to hold Indiana and steal Virginia and North Carolina, Republican strongholds that even Clinton couldn't touch, then Obama will coast to 270 votes.

McCain on the other hand is lining up candidates, particularly Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, Rob Portman, Rep of Ohio, and Former Governor of Mass. Mitt Romney. Pawlenty is McCain's co-chair of his campaign, but unlike Bayh, he needs to step in to be the candidate to try and break McCain into the Mississippi Valley and Northern Midwest. Portman says he wouldn't take the nomination, but I think he would change his mind if he got it. His placement would counter Kaine but would make for a concentrated ohio river/east coast battle. The VP debates would be something else! Romney seems like a dangerous choice, as New England will probably ignore him, and the chance to take New Hampshire just isn't worth it to McCain who needs some big steals.

McCain's best choice to steal votes is Pawlenty, or keep Portman in order to fight for Ohio, but that means that Obama would counter with Kaine and Obama would still have the advantage. Obama can trade Ohio for Virginia and North Carolina (which would be a huge coup!) and win handily.

August 11 - Based on today's polls, the electoral race is tightening up, and I'm pleased to see my prediction taking shape. If McCain were to take deadlocked Virginia and currently Obama-held Indiana, Colorado and Nevada, then McCain would have 274 votes and suddenly be in the lead for the first time in the campaign. Taking control of Ohio so early in the race was key for him. Now the question is can he hold it.

Meanwhile, Obama is trying to turn Virginia to his side, and maybe get North Carolina to follow suit, both of which have been Red States for the last four elections. Upcoming VP picks are crucial now, as a good one can have a slight influence based on importing certain values into a campaign, while promoting regional camaraderie, or just as likely can have a devastating effect on the ticket, dragging down the presidential candidate and splitting the party base.

Seeing the current polling, my predictions to see Pawlenty or Portman for McCain, and Kaine for Obama seem pretty dead on, but with the conventions coming up, its anyone's guess.

Aaaaand, just to keep people guessing, McCain was stumping in Pennsylvania today, appearing at a function with potential VP Tom Ridge. Besides being the first head of Homeland Security, he was also a Representative for Congress and Governor of Pennsylvania. Ridge actually makes a good VP to balance out the "maverick" image McCain is trying to rekindle, but Ridge wouldn't get him more in the Northeast than PA, if that. Still, PA would be a good trade for Indiana, where McCain has been lagging in the polls for a month.

August 18 - The race has tightened up again. Once again, normally Republican Indiana and deadlocked Virginia are necessary for McCain to take the lead in the polls. Even so, we have the conventions coming up and the VP picks to announce. I predict a big shift after these events occur. Somehow I sense that one or both candidates will pick someone completely different than the pundits are looking at, and the polls will go crazy shortly after the conventions.

The Clintons have finally been embraced at the DNC and will speak before the man of the hour. There are still a lot of bitter Clinton supporters waiting for an Obama hug that may not come. Meanwhile, the pundits are suggesting McCain might select a VP that could unhinge the Republican base, someone like Senator Joe Biden. I'm not convinced of this, but I certainly recognize the disastrous effect this would have on his campaign as the hardliners back away in personal horror.

Both candidates have been circling each other (and not yet the drain), neither one throwing stiff punches. I'm hoping they're both going to come out swinging during the debates, but with the milquetoast moderated affairs that we have nowadays, I expect to be disappointed.

August 21 - McCain is polling ahead in Indiana for the first time in a while, putting him 3 votes behind Obama with Virginia "undecided".

I'm looking forward to the conventions and VP picks blowing this stalemate apart for about a month, but come November, it is still going to be this close.

August 22 - Barrack Obama appears to have selected Delaware Senator Joseph Biden as his Vice Presidential running mate. Biden was originally from Pennsylvania, a key state, and as an elder statesman has more experience, particularly in foreign affairs. Although not what I expected, a lot of people were leaning towards Biden and this seems to be a solid pick.

This puts McCain in a very sticky situation. Although his strategy for picking a VP should stay the same, any of his picks will have a hard time in the VP debate, and picking on Obama for no foreign policy experience is shored up through his VP choice. McCain would still need to pick up Pawlenty or Portman to have a shot at the midwest, even though Biden has the potential to take a shot at Virginia and North Carolina.

I said before that Obama was going to wait to see what McCain does first in order to trump him, but by picking Biden, he's effectively said to McCain - "Top that".

As I said before, this is Obama's election to lose, and judging by his pick going into the frenzied DNC, he's not going to give it up easily.

August 29 - One week after Obama's VP announcement, John McCain has now selected Sarah Palin to be his VP running mate. This is quite a surprise. The first term Governor of Alaska was announced today in Ohio, and will have to make quite a showing during next week's RNC. Although she seems to be a good fit with McCain's philosophically, I wonder if voters might feel slighted that more obvious frontrunners like Pawlenty, Ridge and Romney were overlooked. This may be offset by the potential success gained in luring disgruntled Hillary Clinton voters who claimed to turn to McCain if she were not nominated, and the presence of another female candidate helps reassure them of their choice.

Strategically, this is a big gamble for McCain, but considering the position Obama has put him into, it's not surprising. This won't give him any traction in the midwest, where McCain desperately needs to hold on, but a good showing at the RNC might give him the brief boost he's looking for.

From all the pundits and prognosticators, myself included, bravo to Obama and McCain for picking against the grain, and making this a fascinating election. Anyone who picked an Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin contest is a true genius. Whichever party wins, it will make history.

If the Republicans win, the oldest President at the time of inauguration will be seated along with the first ever female Vice President.

If the Democrats win, the country will be helmed by its first African-American as the 44th President.

Only time will tell.

September 1 - Happy Labor Day to you. Going into the postponed RNC, the polls are still close, and Nevada, Colorado and Virginia continue to shape the outcome of this election.

All three of these states would have to be won by McCain for a Republican victory. Nevada and Colorado (where the DNC may have contributed to the most recent Democratic swing) have been shifting back and forth for weeks, and Virginia has stubbornly refused to go one way or the other (although Biden's presence may have an effect in the coming weeks).

Meanwhile, McCain has called off the first night of the RNC as it coincides with the landfall of Hurricane Gustav. He may get better traction from the publicity here than he will from trumping the DNC.

Truly, McCain seemed to silence the press's analysis of Obama's magnificent speech (see full video below) from the last night of the DNC, by shocking everyone and picking Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

If McCain can maintain this momentum through what's left of the RNC and carry it through to the Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates, he may very well be in the lead for the first time this year.

On the other hand, come September 26, Obama will hold his own in the debates and push the pace, while Biden will shred Palin a week later. McCain's best hope here is for a stalemate.

When the smoke clears from the debates mid-October, Obama will be back in the lead, if he ever relinquishes it in the first place.

September 2 - Contrary to what I was saying yesterday, a strange, cynical thought occurred to me today. I won't analyze the new crop of questions regarding Governor Palin's political career and machinations, Troopergate and the queries rising in the wake of the announcement of daughter Bristol's pregnancy. Instead, I wanted to throw out an over/under.

What are the odds that Palin will make an announcement that she has changed her mind, and due to a variety of issues that require her attention, will be unable to continue as McCain's VP? McCain will declare his disappointed understanding, praise Palin, and then stoically pick someone else.

After the RNC? Certainly. Before the debates? Definitely. So, over/under of 16 days? That gives McCain enough time for the RNC bump to die down to see if Palin makes any positive impact, and still gives him enough time to find a new VP who won't melt under the hot lights of the debates only 2-3 weeks later.

If suddenly Palin doesn't want to be VP anymore, you heard it here first.

September 3 - I wasn't the only one thinking that Palin might disappear into the night. NBC News ran a story today that oddsmakers had set the odds at 8-1 that Palin would leave (or be ousted from) her position. It's also not the first time.

Thomas F. Eagleton was selected as George McGovern's running mate in 1972, but less than three weeks after the convention, McGovern asked him to step down. There is a precedent...

...however, Palin took the national stage for the first time Wednesday night and rocked the house. Armed with a polished speech from a professional writer and coached by McCain, she unloaded on Obama to the rapturous response from the delegates.

This was exactly what she needed to do to get on an even keel. Whether something causes her to ditch McCain's Express prior to the debates has not yet revealed itself.

In other news, this is the first time in a long time that Ohio has polled in favor of Obama. After a successful DNC and with him stumping in Ohio while McCain is working in Minnesota, this is not surprising. If McCain finishes his coup in St. Paul, this result might turn back around, as well as allowing him to secure Nevada and Colorado.

September 4 McCain took his turn to speak before his convention with a long, winding speech (see below) that befuddled some pundits, but electrified his own delegates, fans and voters. Summoning the keyword of this election, Change (big C), McCain struck out against the current administration, without bringing names into it, and declared that he would institute Change, furthering to enhance his maverick image.

This puts both candidates in an intriguing position: Both are running on Change, a candidate from the sitting party, and one from the opposing party. The question is, who's voters will believe more which candidate can effectively bring out this "Change".

As usual, the election seems to be coming down to one unifying thought, an issue that is also a non-issue. Although Obama seems to have certain issues targeted in order to bring about Change, particularly Clinton's old horse-to-beat health care and a timetable for ending the conflict in Iraq, McCain does not clearly address these issues or any others.

I always sensed he squandered his big lead time, as Obama and Clinton duked it out over the last remaining delegates, McCain wandering around the country shaking hands and kissing babies, but not really stepping up and saying anything.

The debates should help establish (and by help I mean also convolute) the issues at hand and where Obama and McCain stand on them.

September 8 - The new polls are here! The new polls are here! Actually, the turnover that gives Obama over 300 electoral votes is days old, but depending on who you talk to, McCain is winning. USA Today/Gallup's poll reported McCain in the lead by 4%. This is with a 4 point margin of error, so, there you go.

This election is still close, and despite bumps for both candidates after their respective conventions, it will continue to be close until and even through the debates, much closer than the current electoral vote breakdown indicates.

September 10 - With all the frothy and insubstantial arguments going back and forth lately, its a bit of news to hear Joe Biden tell a Nashua, NH crowd that not only is Hillary Clinton qualified to be President or VP, that she was the better choice for Obama. This is not what you want to hear from your VP after the DNC with the debates looming on the horizon. Although Biden was trying to carry some of the popularity Clinton has in the state, throwing yourself under the bus isn't the best way to do it.

Obama also did some damage control on late night TV, explaining his lipstick on a pig comment. Obama will either have to ignore such small potatoes or come out swinging himself or else he's going to drop the election that seemed like a gimme 3 months ago.

September 12 - In the most recent polls, McCain has slipped into the electoral lead 270-268 with gains in Virginia, reclaiming Florida, holding Ohio and Indiana, and most surprisingly, swiping New Mexico.

Where Colorado was once a necessary prize, the current map shows that McCain can steal the election by holding the Dakotas, Nevada and everything else he's held onto.

It's doubtful McCain will be able to hold New Mexico, and Colorado will come into play again, but it just goes to show how one little tweak can change your strategy on the road to 270.

Back to the recent lameness of jabs back and forth between the candidates, I really hope the debates roll out some issues for a "Change". I still think it's an opportunity for Obama and Biden to get some more traction, but its the long lulls in between big events that McCain is using to slowly work his way into the White House.

Obama may be kicking himself for not taking McCain up on his offer to have 10 town hall-type meetings, instead of 4 debates, where he could beat up on McCain on a more regular basis. He'll just have to make do with 3 presidential debates and 1 VP debate, and then keep busy and on the offensive during the 20 days between the last debate and election day.

September 22 - This friday's debate will produce some interesting polls next week. The first debate will be held friday evening, when most of Obama's voters, skewing younger and more urban, will be away for the night. Let's face it, do you see all of N.Y. City shutting down for the debates? Of course not. McCain's voters, who skew older and more rural, will be more likely to be home and watching the debates. So, even though polls of people who watched the debates will favor McCain, the national polls the following week will show a major shift for Obama.

The danger for McCain is that if the majority of viewers are his voters, he has nowhere to go but down. More to the point, McCain is in danger of pulling a Nixon V. Kennedy debate where Obama appears to be eloquent, organized, magical and, most difficult to earn for any candidate, "presidential", while McCain sweats bullets and prays for the bell.

Both candidates are capable of debating well and effectively, but this debate will set the pace, and if Obama can get the swing he wants, he will carry that through the next two debates.

Recently, the topic of the VP debate was changed to domestic topics. That's a big "Whew!" for Palin who was going to be obliterated by the more experienced Biden. Still, talking is one thing. Talking under the pressure of your direct competition is something else, and Biden isn't going to let up on her. If he does, Palin can put in a good showing, and she will erase the move Obama will make less than a week earlier.

September 24 - More debate drama. With the economy taking center stage in Americans' minds, Obama offered to work with McCain to work on an economic rescue package. Before any details were laid out, McCain went public with the news, offering to suspend his campaign to work on the problem, and reschedule the debates. Now people are asking if this is a debate dodge, shrewd political gaming, a fancy double cross or all of the above. Obama says the debates are still going on and he plans to attend.

Frankly, there are hundreds of people still in Congress. Let them handle the issue. The candidates passed up those positions to campaign, so campaign already. With 41 days to go, it's too late to lose focus.

Only time will tell.

October 1 - Mid-week poll analysis. Today's electoral vote polls are interesting. Continuing the slide downward for McCain, Florida, Ohio and now North Carolina are too close too call, where last week they were in McCain's camp.

Florida and Ohio are critical as shown in the last two elections, but North Carolina is the final nail in the coffin if it swings to Obama. 15 electoral votes that Clinton couldn't win against Bush or Dole would be a devastating trend for Republicans for elections to come. Coupled with Virginia, which is normally a Republican safe haven that Clinton also failed to gain, North Carolina is a huge catch.

McCain was keeping it close, but if Obama succeeds here, it's over in grand landslide fashion.

October 7 - New poll numbers came out this morning and Obama is even further in the lead now, with Missouri tracking towards him. McCain is on the ropes going into the second Presidential debate, the third in the series of debates.

Tonight's debate will be a modified town hall meeting, with both candidates fielding questions from the public, asked by moderator Tom Brokaw. There won't be any responses by candidates to each other. This could be the most boring of the "debates" and McCain needs some confrontation if he is to have any chance, which he will not be able to do under the rules.

Some further analysis of the campaigns: Obama is doing everything right. He's been in Virginia, North Carolina and West Virginia in the last few days, marching through the states he doesn't have control of, and remedying that in grand fashion.

McCain on the other hand is wallowing in New Mexico which won't vote for him no matter how close to Arizona it is. Everyone is making a big deal of him pulling out of Michigan, which he should have given up on a month ago. With no real Midwestern influence, the Lake and Mississippi Valley states were never in contention. Now he'll be lucky to get Ohio, where he was actually polling in the lead for a solid month.

I said from the beginning that this was Obama's election to lose, and McCain seems to recognize that fact logistically and strategically (or is that tactically...?). McCain has all but conceded, and Obama is taking his victory lap of states that weren't won by Kerry or Clinton, but are polling blue or close to it right now.

October 13 - We're two days away from the final debate at Hofstra University and 22 days from the election.

Obama is looking strong going into the home stretch and is already developing his transition team. McCain is attacking this move as arrogant and assumptive, but based on polls, it's a good assumption.

Obama is now sneaking ahead in North Dakota, while maintaining Virginia and West Virginia.

If McCain were to reclaim Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, Colorado, Missouri, Virginia and Nevada, we'd be back to the tie scenario - 269 to 269. McCain would then need West Virginia to go over the top.

As much as they could be McCain's states, and were Bush states in the past, I don't see him taking back more than half of them, if at all.

October 15 The third presidential debate is over and in my opinion it was the best of the three. With both candidates up to speed, both Obama and McCain had a sharper focus on their planks and were more articulate than in the first debate, and also provided a better, more powerful performance than in the town hall style second debate.

Serious accolades, however, are due to Bob Schieffer who masterfully presented brilliant topics, kept the candidates on task and challenged them repeatedly on their answers when they strayed. Granted, they strayed early and often, but I think he did the best of the four debate moderators (including the VP debate) to nudge them back to the focus of the questions, without hindering their ability to speak out. By far, Schieffer's moderation of the debate was the most stately and focused.

Of all the debates, I have included this one below, as it is the best performance yet by candidates and moderator alike, and the most focused breakdown of each candidate's platform and ideologies.

October 21 - For those interested in McCain being the next president, a lot of you are going to have to get out and vote. McCain needs to pick up Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, Colorado and Nevada in order to reach 270 electoral votes. Today his campaign has said they are pulling out of Colorado, and are focusing on Pennsylvania. This doesn't seem like a likely pickup, even if Penn is worth more than twice as many votes. If McCain WERE to pull off this feat, trading Colorado for Pennsylvania, he could afford to lose either North Carolina or Virginia, but not both, and would still have to take all of the states mentioned above. This is a tough row to hoe.

Obama fans on the other hand, just need to come out and vote like they are polling and their man will be the next President of the United States. Spending money 4-1 over McCain, looking confident and ready to lead, there's little that can happen in the next two weeks that will overturn the current map. Just don't get too cocky, Obama voters, if you don't vote because you think everyone else is voting Obama, we could have another Dewey Defeats Truman moment.

October 26 - It's not quite time to swear in Barack Obama as President, but it's pretty close. If Obama does win on November 4th, he will have done it on the strength of taking red states away from McCain, states which even Bill Clinton did not take in his bid for the presidency and for reelection.

Obama has been polling well in North Carolina, Virginia and now Indiana, three states Clinton could not win in 1992 or 1996. These three states total 39 electoral votes, and without them, McCain will not be able to win. There are simply no other states which he could steal in the next 8 days that he has shown any sign of taking.

Although McCain has shown a desire and plan to take Pennsylvania, there have been no signs that he is making any headway. The west coast, northeast and most of the midwest are locked up, and Obama is making headway along the US-Canada border. Even conservative-leaning New Hampshire is out of reach.

Obama taking Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana, or even any one of those states, will break the back of the McCain bid for sure.

If Obama takes Virginia or North Carolina (or both) we might see the earliest called election in history. After the 2000 debacle with Florida, no network will claim victory until it's all said and done, but without those crucial east coast states, McCain is as good as finished.

November 1 Quick note: I said at the beginning that Ohio, Missouri and Nevada would be critical. Considering the imminent landslide that may not be prescient, but I find it interesting that Obama is polling ahead in all three states. Even if it was close, and those three states were the key for McCain, Obama will probably take all three, securing his victory.

Of course, he's also polling ahead in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina...

November 3 - This is the last monday before the election, and the last time I'll update the chart below. Little has changed since last week, and Obama still looks strong right up to the eve of his victory.

To put it all in perspective, assuming the polls hold through the election, McCain would have to flip Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada to win with 274 electoral votes.

If McCain were to take Pennsylvania, which is unlikely since no Republican has won it in the last four elections and he hasn't polled ahead there for any meaningful period since February, he could sacrifice a big state/small state combination like NC/NV or VA/CO, but this doesn't seem like it will occur. McCain has also been campaigning heavily in New Hampshire, but he hasn't been in the lead there since September. Even then it would only benefit him if he won all of the above states, minus PA and NV.

As a result, keep an eye on the following states:

Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado

If at any time Obama wins one of these states, the election is just about over.

That being said, don't let that stop you from voting. Your vote IS important so get out and be heard. If you've already voted early, sit back and watch the festivities. Despite dragging it out on the news, they will be extremely short for all intents and purposes.

November 4 - Election Day! Get out and vote! If you've already voted, sit back and watch the fireworks.

As of the dates below, these are the electoral vote counts based on polls. Naturally these figures will shift dramatically over the coming months.

Note: 270 electoral votes are required to win the election.

Date

Obama

McCain

Too Close To Call

July 14

320

204

14

July 21

312

199

27

July 28

292

195

51

August 4

316

209

13

August 11

289

236

13

August 18

275

250

13

August 25

264

252

22

September 1

278

247

13

September 8

301

224

13

September 15

247

257

34

September 22

273

265

0

September 29

286

252

0

September 29

286

252

0

October 6

329

194

15

October 13

346

181

11

October 20

364

171

3

October 27

375

157

6

November 3

353

185

0

Current polling for 2008 Presidential Election, as of today:



This data was gathered from Electoral-Vote.com
- the best resource for polls and political commentary that I have ever seen.

You can also check out 270towin.com to play with the states yourself.

The final vote for 2008 was Obama:365, McCain:173

Election night coverage will never be the same again.

Tim Russert, besides having a long career at NBC, particularly as host of Meet the Press, was a staple for election night analysis since 1992. His quick analysis of changing electoral college scenarios (depicted and calculated on his dry erase board) made election nights exciting.

His prediction that Florida would be the pivotal state in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 were uncanny, and before his death, he predicted that 3 of the 4 following states - New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada - would be enough to allow the Democrats to give up Ohio and Florida in 2008. What a coup it would be to see this odd calculation occur!

It is watching his analysis that makes us armchair analysts want to do what he did, but never with as much charm and knowledge that Tim Russert displayed.

He is often credited with coining the terms 'Red State' and 'Blue State', but his political contributions go much further, including work for senators and mayors, and diligent work as a Washington insider, both for NBC News and for Meet the Press, where Russert was a bulldog, revealing candidates and politicians from all parties, presenting them to the harsh lights of inquiry and putting them through their paces like no other.

He will be missed.

View his tribute at MSNBC - Tim Russert - In Memoriam

More VP analysis from the Votemaster from www.electoral-vote.com. He's sorted out some potential VP candidates for Obama.

As with McCain's picks, I don't think he's giving enough credit to Jim Webb, who might be convinced to take the job, or to Wesley Clark, who showed he had good political insight during the debates 4 years ago (I think being aggressive is an asset for him). Still, I respect his shrewd analysis and wanted to include his Democratic VP choices for parity. Also, John Edwards losing in 2004 is just a speed bump. He's still tremendously popular. Look at Gore since he's been out of office and lost to Bush in 2000.

The downsides are a little more picayune here, and frankly, it shows just how much more Obama has to work with.

Candidate

Job

Downside

Evan Bayh

Sen. from IN

Boring campaigner; costs the Dems a Sen seat

Joe Biden

Sen. from DE

Incurable verbal diarrhea

Sherrod Brown

Sen. from Ohio

Not much experience; possibly too liberal

Wesley Clark

Retired General

Poor campaigner; poor political judgment

Hillary Clinton

Sen. from NY

Wants to be co-pres; makes Reps go and vote

Tom Daschle

Ex Sen. SD

Lost reelection while maj. leader

John Edwards

Ex Sen. NC

Lost in 2004; possible scandal brewing?

Chuck Hagel

Sen. from NE

Conservative pro-life, pro-gun Rep

Tim Kaine

Gov. of VA

Very little experience; VA not in the bag

Claire McCaskill

Sen. from MO

Might upset Clinton supporters; min experience

J. Napolitano

Gov. of AZ

Might upset Clinton supporters; never married

Sam Nunn

ex Sen. GA

Too old and anti-gay

Jack Reed

Sen. from RI

Doesn't want job; would be replaced by a Rep

Ed Rendell

Gov. of PA

Doesn't look/act/talk like a President

Bill Richardson

Gov. of NM

A Black/Latino ticket wouldn't fly

K. Sebelius

Gov. of Kansas

Same as McCaskill but more experience

B. Schweitzer

Gov. of MT

Unknown outside Montana

Ted Strickland

Gov. of Ohio

Doesn't want the job

Jim Webb

Sen. from VA

Doesn't want the job; loose cannon

Another humorous look at Obama's VP candidates.

Obama's Selection: Delaware Senator Joseph Biden

The Votemaster from www.electoral-vote.com laid out his reasons for dismissing some potential VP candidates for McCain. Although I think he doesn't give Pawlenty enough credit as a potential mover of Midwest states (or at least someone who can portray that he is a representative for Midwestern states), he is normally dead-on when it comes to analysis. I felt it was imperative to include his breakdown here.

More to the point, it just goes to show how sunk McCain is when he picks a VP. Whoever he picks, Obama will trump that candidate.

Candidate

Job

Downside

Charlie Crist

Gov. of Florida

Bad decision maker - 5 divorces

Carly Forinia

ex HP CEO

Nearly ran HP into the ground

Bobby Jindal

Louisiana Gov.

Performs amateur exorcisms; comic fodder

Mike Huckabee

Former AR Gov.

McCain thinks he is crazy

Kay Hutchison

Texas Sen.

Might not play well with working-class men

Sarah Palin

Alaska Gov.

Under investigation for brother in law scandal

Tim Pawlenty

Minnesota Gov.

Unknown nationally-Dems will win Minn anyway

Rob Portman

ex OMB Director

Bush's former budget director

Tom Ridge

ex Gov. PA

Pro choice-will infuriate the Base

Mitt Romney

ex Gov. MA

Flip-flopper; not popular in the South

Mark Sanford

SC Gov.

Unknown outside his state

John Thune

SD Senator

Only three years in the Senate - unknown

McCain's Selection - Alaska Governor Sarah Palin