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Prediction Market Resources

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Prediction Market Resources

This Squidoo lens has been created specifically to focus on resources available to anyone looking for more information on prediction markets.  It includes books, papers, and links to help you understand prediction markets and potentially to get you started with your own market.

This page is very much a work in progress.  Please add your favourite books, links, and comments to help others better understand the concept and industry of prediction markets. 

Prediction Market materials at Amazon.com

Books and other materials that could be helpful in your prediction market research, all from Amazon.com. Submit your favourite prediction market related books to add to this list!

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The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki

The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki

The most fascinating text written till today on th more...1 point

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Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions by Robert Hahn

Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions by Robert Hahn

This book is about prediction markets only, and is more...0 points

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Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan

Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan

I highly recommend this book as a background to ho more...0 points

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Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein

Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein

A good book by Cass Susstein with a great section more...0 points

Key Prediction Market academic articles

Prediction Markets
by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. A great foundation in the topic.
Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?
by Justin Wolfers, Emile Servan-Schreiber, David Pennock and Brian Galebach. This begins to answer the question about the effectiveness of play-money prediction markets. In short: they work.
Sales Forecasting at HP
by Kay-Yut Chen and Charles Plott. A good paper describing a very small-scale implementation of a prediction market to forecast product sales. It determined that the market predicted better than the standard method at HP.
Combinatorial Information Market Design
by Robin Hanson. This is the paper where he lays out his Market Scoring Rule mechanism for prediction markets, which allow for greater liquidity while keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
A Dynamic PariMutual Market
by David Pennock. A description of his new market mechanism that allows for greater liquidity while still keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems
by Joyce Berg and Thomas Rietz. A good overview of the setup and results of the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias
by Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers. A lot of great information and data if you're interested in the "Longshot Bias."
Predicting the Future
by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman. This paper outlines the latest HP innovation in prediction markets, which measures each person's risk profile and integrates that with their trading.

More Prediction Markets Papers

You can add your own favourite papers here and vote them up or down. What do you think are key papers on prediction markets?

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Currency Converter Calculator

FREE Currency Converter Calculator online!2 points

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Wigs Guide

View brand-new styles from the best designers.2 points

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Home Furniture

Discovery the latest in Home Furniture styles and more...2 points

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Cooking Games Online

Play free cooking games and online cooking games.w more...2 points

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Dora Games Online

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King Dora Puzzle Games

Play King Dora Puzzle Games at Dora Games!King Dor more...2 points

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Barbie Cooking Games

Play Barbie Cooking Games at Dora Games!Barbie Coo more...2 points

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Betta Fish Care

We offer a complete library of free articles about more...1 point

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Beach Decorating

Everything for your beach, surf or coastal themed home more...1 point

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Quilt Bedding

At Atlantic Linens, we have hundreds of different more...1 point

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Boy Games

Play free Boy Games and online Boy Games.we add a more...1 point

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Cabin Decor

Everything for your rustic cabin or lodge themed h more...1 point

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http://artificialmarkets.com/am/pennock-neci-tr-2000-168.pdf

ficiency and Forecast Accuracy in Web Market Games more...0 points

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http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Kay-Yut_Chen/paper/public-ms.pdf

Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information more...0 points

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http://www.aei-brookings.org/publications/abstract.php?pid=846

Harnessing the Power of Information: A New Approac more...0 points

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http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/BFNR_2000.pdf

Results from a Dozen Years of Election Markets Res more...0 points

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http://hanson.gmu.edu/futarchy.pdf

Shall we Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?0 points

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Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review

Covering 155 academic papers. Also presents a clas more...0 points

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Channel Data Integrity

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Self-Improvement Millionaires

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Paper Shredder

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Cheap Chair Mat. Compare Prices and Read Consumer more...0 points

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Glue Guns. Compare Prices and Read Consumer Review more...0 points

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Dog Beds. Compare Prices and Read Consumer Reviews more...0 points

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Portable Grills

Shop & Save On Cheap Portable Grills. Compare more...0 points

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How to diagnose, troubleshoot, repair, and fix car more...0 points

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Discovery the very latest in Coffee Table styles a more...0 points

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Hair Extensions Guide.0 points

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Wigs

Free Wigs Guide0 points

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Crime Scene

BRAND-NEW BOOK: How to think like a Crime Scene In more...0 points

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Mercury's Blog

The last few posts I've made to the Mercury Research and Consulting blog will be shown here.
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Prediction Market News from Google

All of the news about prediction markets that Google can find. This list is updated every six hours.
The Betting Window Is Open for Greece's Future
Like stock or bond prices, its predictions, often expressed as probabilities, are derived by matching...
Scared of Facebook shares? Wager on Friday's close
Intrade, the online prediction market where investors can bet on numerous events, from movie box office...
Prediction markets don't work.
The markets indicate that there's more than a 3 percent chance that neither Barack Obama nor Mitt...
Ganeshaspeaks: Market prediction for May 25
?If you have the yearly book with you, you can cross-check the current predictions with the predictions...
Powered by Google

Prediction Market blog posts from Google

All the prediction market blog posts that Google can find will be shown here. It updates every six hours.
The Betting Window Is Open for Greece's Future
Like stock or bond prices, its predictions, often expressed as probabilities, are derived by matching...
Scared of Facebook shares? Wager on Friday's close
Intrade, the online prediction market where investors can bet on numerous events, from movie box office...
Prediction markets don't work.
The markets indicate that there's more than a 3 percent chance that neither Barack Obama nor Mitt...
Ganeshaspeaks: Market prediction for May 25
?If you have the yearly book with you, you can cross-check the current predictions with the predictions...
Powered by Google

Reader Feedback

Please share any feedback you have for this page. Should other links/books/sites be added? What else would you like to see here?

  • braidhairextensions Jun 27, 2011 @ 5:06 am | delete
    Thank you for a great list of the prediction market materials...This has been really helpful to me. Keep updating!
    -Emily
    Remy Hair Extensions
    Clip In Human Hair Extensions
  • Nov 12, 2010 @ 12:26 am | delete
    Nice lens! Great information. Your readers might also be interested in discount luxury hotels and luxury hotels information. Feel free to visit and leave a feedback!
    Good luck!
  • Aug 1, 2010 @ 9:36 am | delete
    nice lens. thank you
    .....
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  • Pontious O'Rosa May 4, 2007 @ 9:05 am | delete
    Great Start.
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Jed Christiansen is the Managing Director of Mercury Research and Consulting Ltd.

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