Prediction Market Resources
This Squidoo lens has been created specifically to focus on resources available to anyone looking for more information on prediction markets. It includes books, papers, and links to help you understand prediction markets and potentially to get you started with your own market.
This page is very much a work in progress. Please add your favourite books, links, and comments to help others better understand the concept and industry of prediction markets.
Prediction Market materials at Amazon.com
Books and other materials that could be helpful in your prediction market research, all from Amazon.com. Submit your favourite prediction market related books to add to this list!
The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki
The most fascinating text written till today on th more...1 point
Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions by Robert Hahn
This book is about prediction markets only, and is more...0 points
Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan
I highly recommend this book as a background to ho more...0 points
Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein
A good book by Cass Susstein with a great section more...0 points
Key Prediction Market academic articles
- Prediction Markets
- by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. A great foundation in the topic.
- Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?
- by Justin Wolfers, Emile Servan-Schreiber, David Pennock and Brian Galebach. This begins to answer the question about the effectiveness of play-money prediction markets. In short: they work.
- Sales Forecasting at HP
- by Kay-Yut Chen and Charles Plott. A good paper describing a very small-scale implementation of a prediction market to forecast product sales. It determined that the market predicted better than the standard method at HP.
- Combinatorial Information Market Design
- by Robin Hanson. This is the paper where he lays out his Market Scoring Rule mechanism for prediction markets, which allow for greater liquidity while keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
- A Dynamic PariMutual Market
- by David Pennock. A description of his new market mechanism that allows for greater liquidity while still keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
- Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems
- by Joyce Berg and Thomas Rietz. A good overview of the setup and results of the Iowa Electronic Markets.
- Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias
- by Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers. A lot of great information and data if you're interested in the "Longshot Bias."
- Predicting the Future
- by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman. This paper outlines the latest HP innovation in prediction markets, which measures each person's risk profile and integrates that with their trading.
More Prediction Markets Papers
You can add your own favourite papers here and vote them up or down. What do you think are key papers on prediction markets?
http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Kay-Yut_Chen/paper/ms020408.pdf
Information Aggregation Mechanisms1 point
http://artificialmarkets.com/am/pennock-neci-tr-2000-168.pdf
ficiency and Forecast Accuracy in Web Market Games more...0 points
http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Kay-Yut_Chen/paper/public-ms.pdf
Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information more...0 points
http://www.aei-brookings.org/publications/abstract.php?pid=846
Harnessing the Power of Information: A New Approac more...0 points
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/BFNR_2000.pdf
Results from a Dozen Years of Election Markets Res more...0 points
http://hanson.gmu.edu/futarchy.pdf
Shall we Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?0 points
Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review
Covering 155 academic papers. Also presents a clas more...0 points
Mercury's Blog
The last few posts I've made to the Mercury Research and Consulting blog will be shown here.
Fetching RSS feed... please stand byMidas Oracle Feed from midasoracle.org
All of the latest posts from Chris Masse at MidasOracle.org.
Fetching RSS feed... please stand byPrediction Market News from Google
- Putting Prediction Markets to Work
- Bo Cowgill, a quantitative marketing manager at Google, told me about his company's prediction m...
- Weekend markets: Stocks fall for fourth week as recession persists
- It was the agency's first prediction for 2010. Gold fell as a stronger dollar and lower oil pric...
- Crowdcast Launches Prediction Markets Platform for Enterprise ...
- "Crowdcast is the first enterprise-ready prediction markets platform that gives executives real...
- Prediction puts NC jobless rate at 13% peak
- Mike Walden, a William Neal Reynolds professor and NC Cooperative Extension economist at NC State Un...
Prediction Market blog posts from Google
- Putting Prediction Markets to Work
- One of the most interesting stories I've written in the last nine months or so (at least in my opini...
- Who will be the Next Philippine President? (Inkling's Public ...
- Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur. ......
- Inkling Corporate Blog - Business Intelligence Using Prediction ...
- Inkling Corporate Blog - Business Intelligence Using Prediction Markets. We hate: Corporate politics...
- Who will win the Tour de France 2009? (Inkling's Public Prediction ...
- The winner will very probably come from one of the riders listed in this market. The market will pay...
Reader Feedback
Please share any feedback you have for this page. Should other links/books/sites be added? What else would you like to see here?
Pontious O'Rosa wrote
Great Start.
Posted May 04, 2007
by jed-christiansen
(more)
