Prediction Market Resources
This Squidoo lens has been created specifically to focus on resources available to anyone looking for more information on prediction markets. It includes books, papers, and links to help you understand prediction markets and potentially to get you started with your own market.
This page is very much a work in progress. Please add your favourite books, links, and comments to help others better understand the concept and industry of prediction markets.
Prediction Market materials at Amazon.com
Books and other materials that could be helpful in your prediction market research, all from Amazon.com. Submit your favourite prediction market related books to add to this list!
The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki
The most fascinating text written till today on th more...1 point
Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions by Robert Hahn
This book is about prediction markets only, and is more...0 points
Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan
I highly recommend this book as a background to ho more...0 points
Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein
A good book by Cass Susstein with a great section more...0 points
Key Prediction Market academic articles
- Prediction Markets
- by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. A great foundation in the topic.
- Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?
- by Justin Wolfers, Emile Servan-Schreiber, David Pennock and Brian Galebach. This begins to answer the question about the effectiveness of play-money prediction markets. In short: they work.
- Sales Forecasting at HP
- by Kay-Yut Chen and Charles Plott. A good paper describing a very small-scale implementation of a prediction market to forecast product sales. It determined that the market predicted better than the standard method at HP.
- Combinatorial Information Market Design
- by Robin Hanson. This is the paper where he lays out his Market Scoring Rule mechanism for prediction markets, which allow for greater liquidity while keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
- A Dynamic PariMutual Market
- by David Pennock. A description of his new market mechanism that allows for greater liquidity while still keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
- Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems
- by Joyce Berg and Thomas Rietz. A good overview of the setup and results of the Iowa Electronic Markets.
- Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias
- by Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers. A lot of great information and data if you're interested in the "Longshot Bias."
- Predicting the Future
- by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman. This paper outlines the latest HP innovation in prediction markets, which measures each person's risk profile and integrates that with their trading.
More Prediction Markets Papers
You can add your own favourite papers here and vote them up or down. What do you think are key papers on prediction markets?
http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Kay-Yut_Chen/paper/ms020408.pdf
Information Aggregation Mechanisms1 point
Channel Data Integrity
Channel Visibility - Zyme is the leading provider more...1 point
http://artificialmarkets.com/am/pennock-neci-tr-2000-168.pdf
ficiency and Forecast Accuracy in Web Market Games more...0 points
http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Kay-Yut_Chen/paper/public-ms.pdf
Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information more...0 points
http://www.aei-brookings.org/publications/abstract.php?pid=846
Harnessing the Power of Information: A New Approac more...0 points
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/BFNR_2000.pdf
Results from a Dozen Years of Election Markets Res more...0 points
http://hanson.gmu.edu/futarchy.pdf
Shall we Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?0 points
Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review
Covering 155 academic papers. Also presents a clas more...0 points
Mercury's Blog
The last few posts I've made to the Mercury Research and Consulting blog will be shown here.
Fetching RSS feed... please stand byMidas Oracle Feed from midasoracle.org
All of the latest posts from Chris Masse at MidasOracle.org.
Fetching RSS feed... please stand byPrediction Market News from Google
- Crowdcast and The 2.0 Adoption Council Partner to Launch a New Prediction ...
- "One of the main ideas behind prediction markets is the power of the wisdom of the crowd to for...
- Let's try prediction markets for contract cost and schedule goals
- In a prediction market, buyers and sellers trade contracts.The payoff depends on future events, such...
- Collective Intelligence Summit - Leading Prediction Markets 6 November 2009 in ...
- Learn how social media and prediction markets create fundamental advancements in collective intellig...
- Sermo Launches the Practice Management Exchange to Support the New Physician ...
- Leveraging aspects of social network theory, prediction markets and arbitrage, subscribing clients c...
Prediction Market blog posts from Google
- The Faculty Lounge: Swine Flu Prediction Markets
- From Wednesday's FT, swine flu contracts are trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by Iowa Uni...
- Unlike RCF, prediction markets are much harder to be gamed by the ...
- A well-crafted prediction market draws from a diverse group of people, ensuring a balanced point-of-...
- Determining the ROI of Enterprise Prediction Markets | Prediction ...
- Dawn Keller, formerly with Best Buy, evaluates ROI of prediction markets and how business leaders ne...
- Prediction markets are crazy cool. | Midas Oracle .ORG
- Dialog: * Port: o Prediction markets are crazy cool. o If you had to design a method of prediction t...
Reader Feedback
Please share any feedback you have for this page. Should other links/books/sites be added? What else would you like to see here?
Pontious O'Rosa wrote
Great Start.
Posted May 04, 2007
by jed-christiansen
(more)
