Prediction Market Resources

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Prediction Market Resources

This Squidoo lens has been created specifically to focus on resources available to anyone looking for more information on prediction markets.  It includes books, papers, and links to help you understand prediction markets and potentially to get you started with your own market.

This page is very much a work in progressPlease add your favourite books, links, and comments to help others better understand the concept and industry of prediction markets. 

Prediction Market materials at Amazon.com 

Books and other materials that could be helpful in your prediction market research, all from Amazon.com. Submit your favourite prediction market related books to add to this list!

The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki

The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki

The most fascinating text written till today on th more...1 point

Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions by Robert Hahn

Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions by Robert Hahn

This book is about prediction markets only, and is more...0 points

Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan

Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan

I highly recommend this book as a background to ho more...0 points

Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein

Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein

A good book by Cass Susstein with a great section more...0 points

Key Prediction Market academic articles 

Prediction Markets
by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. A great foundation in the topic.
Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?
by Justin Wolfers, Emile Servan-Schreiber, David Pennock and Brian Galebach. This begins to answer the question about the effectiveness of play-money prediction markets. In short: they work.
Sales Forecasting at HP
by Kay-Yut Chen and Charles Plott. A good paper describing a very small-scale implementation of a prediction market to forecast product sales. It determined that the market predicted better than the standard method at HP.
Combinatorial Information Market Design
by Robin Hanson. This is the paper where he lays out his Market Scoring Rule mechanism for prediction markets, which allow for greater liquidity while keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
A Dynamic PariMutual Market
by David Pennock. A description of his new market mechanism that allows for greater liquidity while still keeping the key advantages of a standard CDA market.
Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems
by Joyce Berg and Thomas Rietz. A good overview of the setup and results of the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias
by Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers. A lot of great information and data if you're interested in the "Longshot Bias."
Predicting the Future
by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman. This paper outlines the latest HP innovation in prediction markets, which measures each person's risk profile and integrates that with their trading.

Mercury's Blog 

The last few posts I've made to the Mercury Research and Consulting blog will be shown here.

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Midas Oracle Feed from midasoracle.org 

All of the latest posts from Chris Masse at MidasOracle.org.

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Prediction Market News from Google 

All of the news about prediction markets that Google can find. This list is updated every six hours.
Crowdcast and The 2.0 Adoption Council Partner to Launch a New Prediction ...
"One of the main ideas behind prediction markets is the power of the wisdom of the crowd to for...
Let's try prediction markets for contract cost and schedule goals
In a prediction market, buyers and sellers trade contracts.The payoff depends on future events, such...
Collective Intelligence Summit - Leading Prediction Markets 6 November 2009 in ...
Learn how social media and prediction markets create fundamental advancements in collective intellig...
Sermo Launches the Practice Management Exchange to Support the New Physician ...
Leveraging aspects of social network theory, prediction markets and arbitrage, subscribing clients c...

Prediction Market blog posts from Google 

All the prediction market blog posts that Google can find will be shown here. It updates every six hours.
The Faculty Lounge: Swine Flu Prediction Markets
From Wednesday's FT, swine flu contracts are trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by Iowa Uni...
Unlike RCF, prediction markets are much harder to be gamed by the ...
A well-crafted prediction market draws from a diverse group of people, ensuring a balanced point-of-...
Determining the ROI of Enterprise Prediction Markets | Prediction ...
Dawn Keller, formerly with Best Buy, evaluates ROI of prediction markets and how business leaders ne...
Prediction markets are crazy cool. | Midas Oracle .ORG
Dialog: * Port: o Prediction markets are crazy cool. o If you had to design a method of prediction t...

Reader Feedback 

Please share any feedback you have for this page. Should other links/books/sites be added? What else would you like to see here?

Lensmaster

Pontious O'Rosa wrote

Great Start.

Reply Posted May 04, 2007

by jed-christiansen

Jed Christiansen is the Managing Director of Mercury Research and Consulting Ltd.
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