2007 Semiannual Forecasts and Sunday Updates of Stock Market, Forex, Precious Metals, and Grains by Top Contestant in Trading Competitions
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I had been posting at the discussion group at Dan Ascani's website. When his discussion group closed due to spam, I started my own blog at geocities.com. In 2007, I moved to squidoo.com.
SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS
SUNDAY UPDATES
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Jan. 6, 2008 update
Dec. 30, 2007 update
Due to the holidays, I'll analyze gold only like last Sun. Happy holidays!
Gold should finish minute i of minor wave 5 by this Wed followed by an abc correction. I'll post price and time targets next Sun.
DISCUSSION
Jeff H wrote
I had the ABC correction in GG done 4 days ago, loaded up with calls when the hour chart blow out the base pattern 1,2,i,ii further price action confirms my count so far, go baby go.
Posted December 26, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
My projected low of 12/18 for gold arrived early on 12/17. It wasn't the end of minute e of triangle minor 4 from early Nov. I expect the triangle to complete this Fri or next Mon around 785 basis Feb, after which minor 5 may begin.
Posted December 19, 2007
iacomo, wrote
THX, au Steve, the may not make new lows, but I exspect a kind of double bottom.
Posted December 17, 2007
au steve wrote
Thanks iacomo. We've also got bradley turn date on the 22, I'm wondering if the $ has gone too far too quick. Looking for Full Sto double dip on the xau as confirmation. The H&S could easily fail given the oversold condition which would be bullish. I'm still cautious though maybe overtly so.
Posted December 17, 2007
iacomo wrote
If I may be of any help, I've got following turn-dates for Gold:
19th dec. low
29th jan. high
Posted December 17, 2007
au steve wrote
Look like its all in the dollar. (whats your call will it have a sustainable break past 77.5 and beyond? )The head and shoulders I mentioned has come into play.
Posted December 17, 2007
au steve wrote
Cyclist's turn date of the 7th Dec seem to be a downer as opposed to up as expected.
Gspot who has been very good in the past, after his last failed call he switched his strategy to 2 thirds invested 1 third tradeable stating he no longer trusts his analog model.
Posted December 17, 2007
au steve wrote
Turn dates -- IDT --- Abridged
I've got 12 turn dates for December. The biggy is on Dec 31, positive for gold. The two that I can't get a handle on are from the big Kahuna component on Dec 8 and Dec 13. I'm being cautious until we get past the 13.
Posted December 17, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Feb gold clearly completed abc up today. It appears to be forming a triangle from the early Nov high.
Posted December 11, 2007
Jeff H wrote
The bail out or the rate freeze is bogus. Just try to got one of them to not reset your loan. The true rescue was the FHA bill killed in the Senate by the Demo. The bubble continues to burst, Tulip mania is over.
See you at the bottom.
Posted December 08, 2007
Dec. 23, 2007 update
Due to the holidays, I'll analyze gold only. Happy holidays!
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. gold's minor wave e does not appear to be complete; let's see whether gold has 5 waves up from last Mon's low or drops over the next few days to the high 780's basis Feb to complete wave e
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. soybeans is in a runaway bull market
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Dec. 16, 2007 update
Due to time constraints, I'll analyze gold only. I'll post at least one update on gold during the week. I hope Au-Steve will post turning points soon.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. gold appears to be forming a triangle from the early Nov high, should be complete this coming Tu 12/18, must have strong upside breakout to start minor wave 5; HUI should also complete its correction on Tu 12/18.
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. soybeans is in a runaway bull market
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Dec. 9, 2007 update
1. gold bottoming
2. sugar bottoming
3. US dollar topping; Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, and yen bottoming
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. soybeans is in a runaway bull market
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Dec. 2, 2007 update
1. gold completing iii or c down from last Monday's high near 775 basis Feb. on Monday; will update in discussion section over the next few days
2. sugar bottoming
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. US dollar topping; Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, and yen bottoming
2. soybeans is in a runaway bull market
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Nov. 25, 2007 update
Thanks to BruceS. I barely have the time and patience to even post anything once.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. T-bonds and notes continuing minor wave 3 or C up
2. stock indices bottoming in minor wave c or 3
3. cocoa and coffee should have minor wave c drop this week
4. sugar should drop into early Dec
5. cotton bottoming, about to begin primary wave (3) or (c) up
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. euro broke out of triangle and complete 5 waves up last week; Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, and yen should have lows against the US dollar in early December
2. soybeans is in a runaway bull market
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Nov. 18, 2007 update
Happy Thanksgiving!
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. T-bonds and notes should continue minor wave 3 or C up
2. S&P 500 appears to be forming a triangle in minor 4 and should soon resume the wave 5 of intermediate 3 or C decline into the forecasted low at the end of month
3. coffee and sugar should have nice drops for the remainder of Nov
4. Cotton's minor c drop for which I got tired of waiting finally arrived last week; primary (3) or (c) up should start this week
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. euro appears to be forming a triangle, should soon break to the upside; the US Dollar completed 3 waves down from mid-August, upward correction is weak, probably a 4th wave;
2. gold probably in minor 4 rather than intermediate (4)
3. soybeans is much less bearish than originally forecasted
Nov. 11, 2007 update
S&P 500 and DJI appear to have completed 3 waves up to the early Oct peak with a possible 5th wave failure in the 2nd half of October; this would be extremely bearish for many months to come. On the other hand, the apparent 3 waves only up to the early Oct peak on the daily chart of S&P 500 and DJI would imply that these 2 indices have not completed their topping process yet. NDX 100 completed 5 waves up to its intraday peak on Nov. 1 above its Oct high; the final S&P 500 and DJI peak almost always arrive afterwards. I'm uncertain as to which longer term scenario is correct.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. T-bonds and notes should continue minor wave 3 or C up
2. the US Dollar completed 5 waves down from June last week and is correcting upwards, whereas the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, and yen have turned down
3. gold should correct down to 790's basis Dec this Tu, bounce up to Nov. 21; gold would be in intermediate (4) if (3) is not extended
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. the stock indices are due to start bouncing; they should resume the decline next week
2. soybeans peaking late and may be less bearish than originally forecasted
Nov. 4, 2007 update
Thanks to Au_Steve for summarizing gold turn dates.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. T-bonds and notes are in minor wave 3 or C up
2. cotton doesn't appear to want to drop very much, time to cover short
3. stock indices starting minute iii of minor 5, new highs coming in SPX followed by extended drop
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. the US Dollar's drop about to end, whereas the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, and yen about to turn down
2. gold should ideally complete minute v of minor 5 of Intermediate (3) this Tu near 840 basis Dec, correct to 790's on 11/13
Oct. 28, 2007 update
I discovered my error in last week's gold analysis. I'm moving last week's discussion module to immediately below this update to make previous messages easier to find.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. T-bonds and notes are almost to begin minor wave 3 or C up
2. cotton started dropping in minor wave C, hasn't made much progress
3. stock indices headed for slight new highs
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. the US Dollar will drop a few more days, whereas the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, and yen have a little more upside; correction coming
2. gold in minute iii of minor 5 of Intermediate (3), up for rest of week; sharp drop the following week
Oct. 21, 2007 update
In response to iacomo's question on Oct. 17th, William D . Gann's techniques forecasted a gold top for last Fri. Old Billy brought back many esoteric secrets from India, the land of avatars. Broader than the original meaning in Sanskrit, an "avatar" seeks to transcend ordinary human knowledge and abilities. That's why I chose the name David_the_Avatar. Thanks to Au-Steve for giving us the link for a gold mine of gold info . Unfortunately, I have neither the time nor the patience to sort through a ton of dirt for a few ounces of gold as in a typical gold mine. If anybody finds reliable forecasts there or elsewhere, please post the gold nuggets in the discussion section and leave the ton of dirt behind. Seeing
reliable forecasts by others helps me catch careless errors. IDT's 10/30 gold low looks good; I have 10/29 low. You don't need to register with squidoo.com to post comments in the discussion below. Clickable links may be posted.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. T-bonds and notes should complete minor wave 1 or A bounce on Mon, move sideways through end of week, and begin minor wave 3 or C up
2. cotton should complete abc on Mon and start good drop in minor wave C
3. gold should have very sharp drop this week, Dec gold target is 730 on 29th
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. stock indices dropped sharply into the current low as shown in my semiannual forecast, but I expect a weaker bounce than shown for this week
2. gold's forecast for the coming weeks should be pushed to the right (ie. forward in time) by about a week
Oct. 14, 2007 update
All of the markets (SPX, euro, gold, and soybeans) included in my semiannual forecast should be forming short term tops around this time. There were lively discussions of inflation vs. deflation and several markets over the last few weeks. Let's give a special welcome to gold specialist Au-Steve who shared his turn dates of Oct 12 (high), Oct 15 (low), Oct 20 (high), Oct 21 (low) and Oct 30 (low) in the discussion section on Oct. 11th. You don't need to register with squidoo.com to post comments in the discussion below. Links may be posted using html.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. Euro should be topping, possible that it won't make new high as forecasted; Australian dollar, British pound, and Canadian dollar topping; Japanese yen will be weakest among major currency in the coming weeks
2. T-bonds and notes completing minor C drop, small minor wave 1 or x bounce starting soon
3. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials appears to need one more small wave up, may make slight new high early in week
4. cotton ready to start good drop in minor wave C
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS
1. S&P 500 index will correct less than forecasted, final high from mid-August lows will be in Nov
2. soybean's next forecasted high may be a lower test of the previous high
3. gold, HUI, XAU appears to be in v of 5; more detailed wave structure is very unclear; high arriving late, perhaps as late as 19th (Au-Steve's theoretical high is Oct. 20th)
DISCUSSION
Au-Steve wrote
Hi guys just thought I'drop by. IDT has a (smalish I think) turn date for 23 Nov. School seems to be out on whether we have completed an abc and begining third wave up or whether we are in b now with c to come. Cyclist's model is saying early dec for third wave. What are your thoughts David?
Posted November 22, 2007
Jeff H wrote
Countywide will be profitable, the losses now will be the holders of real estate, here in San Diego we are in iii of 3, no trading, limit down, no more free money. I sold 2005 low should be 2010.
Posted October 26, 2007
Jeff H wrote
Is that the top or another scary drop, well I will choose the later, but I am out. We are in a 1930 and 1970 trading range on the long term. Short term the next few days will tell. We never got really happy on the calls so not a B wave. 5 maybe done.
Posted October 20, 2007
iacomo wrote
Steve, that is excactly what David is predictin. I see a sideways to down move from now onwards, to take out volatility, until the seccond week of Nevembre, where the for the moment last advance should begin.
If I'll chance mind or dates, I'll be back.
Thanks for sharing
Posted October 17, 2007
iacomo wrote
Seems, that Gold dit a high and reversetody.
Would fit with your prediction, David. Why do you think, the high will come later ?
A gapdown tomorrow would confirm.
Regards,
iacomo
Posted October 17, 2007
Au-Steve wrote
I'm not sure how the next days play out but a heads up the gold ratio just broke out, the 13 day ema on xau just broke and the yen cross has turned down significantly - but hey I'm the best contrarian indicator out there.
Posted October 17, 2007
Au-Steve wrote
I only know his handle IDT, he doesn't post them very much now, another guy whose cycles I respect sold up at the last high and expects a mild downturn accelerating last days of oct. They both say it looks good eary Nov and post here http://www.voy.com/64855/ very noisy but a gold mine ;)
Posted October 17, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Au_Steve, I just gave your lens 5 stars. Whose turn dates are those? Can you give us more? The 15th low arrived only one day late. The 20th high looks good; I see a 19th high.
Posted October 17, 2007
Au-Steve wrote
PPS I've added you to my lens role, if you get a chance I'd love what you think about my lens.
http://www.squidoo.com/goldinvest/
(its just aimed at the general public)
Posted October 17, 2007
Au-Steve wrote
Well I feel like a plonker as the Oct 15 (low) didn't exactly come about. But then again I didn't know about the smoking Ichimoku Japanese grannies!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/15/bcngold115.xml
BTW Not my turn dates, I wouldn't be so presumptious.
Posted October 17, 2007
Oct. 9, 2007 update
(delayed due to technical problems)
I have been trying to publish this update without success since Sunday evening! I posted a midweek update last Wed. Please note there are a few posts in the last few days in the discussion section under my Sept. 30 update.
There were lively discussions of inflation vs. deflation and several markets in recent weeks. You don't need to register with squidoo.com to post comments in the guestbook below. Links may be posted using html.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS (updated Oct. 9, 2007)
1. sugar probably not in wave 4 since March couldn't hold 9.90's
2. Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, and Euro in minor 3 of intermediate (3); Japanese yen will be relatively weak in the coming weeks
3. T-bonds and notes is having good minor C drop, currently in ii of 5 of C, low due this Th or Fri, small minor wave 1 or x bounce afterwards
4. gold should be topping late this week, XAU and HUI forming triple tops
5. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and NDX topping this week
6. cotton completing abc bounce up, good drop in minor wave C coming
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL FORECASTS FOR S&P500, EURO, GOLD, AND SOYBEANS (updated Oct. 9, 2007)
1. S&P 500 index will correct less than forecasted, final high from mid-August lows will be in Nov
2. soybean's next forecasted high may be a lower test of the previous high
DISCUSSION
iacomo wrote
sorry, just read it wrong, got new glasses, and I'm not used to it, hadreading glasses only before that. :laugh:
Posted October 11, 2007
iacomo wrote
David, you changed your mind ?
At your forecast, we have another high at the middle of November and then the SPX going down.
We should see the lows in Novembre now and going up afterwards ?
Posted October 11, 2007
Au-Steve wrote
I just thought I'd sign in. The turn dates for gold that I look at are Oct 12(high) Oct 15 (low) Oct 20 (high) Oct 21(low) Oct 30 (low)
Posted October 11, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Barry is looking for a stock market 5th wave low in April 2008, perhaps caused by a major Middle East war. Sorry, but I see a high. If you try out his free 2-week trial here, let us know what he predicts.
Posted October 11, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
He also wrote: T-notes "aberration on Oct. 5 ..."; "Weekly chart cycle highs for copper are likely due into the week of Oct. 26".
I foresaw the sharp wave C drop in notes/bonds. My SPX and gold forecasts disagree with his. I see: late Oct low for copper; notes/bonds rally into Dec.
Who's right?
Posted October 11, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Oct. 9th report of Fortucast Market Timing. Barry Rosen wrote: stock market drop "may not start until Oct. 22 and they could even carry into November." and "next weekly chart cycle low is due into Dec. 14."; T-notes' "lows do dominate into Nov. and Dec."; gold highs probably "the week of Oct. 26."
Posted October 11, 2007
iacomo wrote
Thanks, David
Posted October 10, 2007
Sept. 30, 2007 update
There were lively discussions of inflation vs. deflation and several markets in recent weeks. You don't need to register with squidoo.com to post comments in the guestbook below. Links may be posted using html.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. crude oil continue strongly upwards in minor 3 of intermediate (3)
2. sugar completed c rather than 3 from mid-August lows if Mar 08 contract cannot hold 9.90's
3. lean hogs completing minor 3 of intermediate (c) down, possible long for 4th wave bounce
4. Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Euro in minor 3 of intermediate (3); British pound and Japanese yen not as strong against the US dollar index
5. T-bonds and notes should complete minute abc up mid-week, minor C wave drop afterwards
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL PROJECTIONS
1. S&P 500 index's early Oct. peak should be slightly higher than 9/19 peak, probably near 1550
2. soybean's projected low for this week arrived last week
3. gold's projected low for this week arrived last week
4. euro's projected low for this week arrived last week
DISCUSSION
David wrote
Posted on 10/3 that LH will be weak. Couldn't publish new weekend update since Sun. Stocks topping; correction will be weaker than originally forecasted. Cotton about ready to drop in minor wave C. Soybean's next forecasted high will be lower test of previous high. Bonds and note bottoming tomorrow.
Posted October 09, 2007
iacomo wrote
lean hogs may have ended its downmove. I took a long position as per today.
Posted October 09, 2007
Jeff h wrote
The blackwater boys are operating the way we should since day one, this is no justice in war, that is crazy, the war would have been over years ago. War is insanity and too many good americans have died trying to do a just war. Welcome to hell, welcome to war
Posted October 08, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Oct. 7, 2007 (continued)
4. gold should be topping late this week, XAU and HUI forming triple tops
5. S
Posted October 08, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Oct. 7, 2007 update
1. sugar not in wave 4 since March couldn't hold 9.90's,
2. Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, and Euro in minor 3 of intermediate (3); Japanese yen will be relatively weak in the coming weeks
3. T-bonds and notes should complete minor C drop late in the week
Posted October 08, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Hi Jeff H,
I agree. This site hasn't let me save my Sunday update since yesterday afternoon. Let's see if this is posted. If so, I'll post the remainder in this section.
Posted October 08, 2007
Jeff H wrote
Where are the call buyers, Wave 5 appears to be nearing
completion, I am down to one long position. we need to churn and have them get happy on the CBOT. I just dumped my kids 529 SP 500 position from Oct 2005 on the new high.
Posted October 08, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Sugar couldn't hold 9.90's; further uptrend questionable. Lean hogs remains weak. T-bond futures topped as expected; breaking presumed last week Tu's wave a high significantly will confirm C drop to 109 area. My semiannual forecast of lows this week for soybean, gold, and euro are coming on time.
Posted October 03, 2007
AlanHu wrote
Running the money pump 27/7 can make the stock market go up at the same time that crude oil and precious metals go up. It's funny money at work.
Posted September 30, 2007
djohnson1 wrote
The Fed has lost control. It's trying to keep the economy from dropping into a deflationary recession. What else will be the result but inflation?
Posted September 30, 2007
Sept. 23, 2007 update
There was a lively discussion of inflation vs. deflation last week. Which do you think is correct? Please post in this week's discussion below this update.
THIS WEEK'S INTERESTING MARKETS
1. crude oil continue strongly upwards in minor 3 of intermediate (3)
2. sugar broke out, in minor 3, significant high in late Oct, possible test of high in mid-Nov.
3. lean hogs completing minor 3 of intermediate (c) down, may be a good buy after completing 4-5 late in the week
4. Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Euro continue strongly upwards in minor 3 of intermediate (3)
CORRECTIONS TO SEMIANNUAL PROJECTIONS
1. S&P 500 index peaking slightly later than projected, either early this week or in early Oct. near 1550
2. soybean high arriving slightly later than projected
DISCUSSION
iacomo wrote
sorry, meaning the dollar in last posting
Posted December 17, 2007
economist wrote
When the Fed redefined money supply around 1980, they came up with over 10 definitions. They dropped some of these over the years due to problems. It's not easy to have definitions that continue to measure what they purport to measure as conditions change.
Posted September 28, 2007
Jeff H wrote
The market is slowing down here. This is not a good thing, sold more calls this morning, on the deflation issue, the sub prime bond is a financial asset, you need to use financial gauges to measure this, money supply is disappearing as each one of these goes bad.
Posted September 28, 2007
economist wrote
Jeff H, economists and laymen don't normally define inflation and deflation by stock prices, but by the cost of living.
You referred to Marty Zweig. Why does he believe that stocks will trend downwards soon?
Posted September 28, 2007
Jeff H wrote
I measure inflation/deflation with stock prices, those the K-wave low as 2002 or 2003. After WWII the market took a dump, the war is nearing a end.
Posted September 26, 2007
abearden wrote
Could Jeff H be referring to severe drops in a specific sector or commodity in 1938/1939 and 1946? From the viewpoint of Gann, many commodities still have more upside coming. Moreover, the producers will have to pass the high costs on to the households or go bankrupt.
Posted September 25, 2007
MCowdery wrote
Jeff H, What do you mean by "Current inflation rates are not like the market, it is 6 to 9 months ahead"?
Posted September 25, 2007
blackcloud wrote
Huh? No steep drops in price according to the Fed:
CPI and rate of inflation
year CPI rate of inflation
1938 14.1 -2.1
1939 13.9 -1.4
....
1946 19.5 8.3
Posted September 24, 2007
Sept. 16, 2007 update
short term - EC correcting, about to resume uptrend
intermediate term - BP, CD, EC and JY should be very strong for a month (see my semiannual euro projection through Jan 2008 below)
GRAINS
short term - W quickly completed 5 wave sequence last week, S topping now
intermediate term - (see my semiannual S projection through Jan 2008 below)
INDICES
short term - I highly respect Jeff H's analyses, but do not agree with his count of a potential 5th wave for this move up because his 4th wave very deeply overlaps his 1st wave in the SPX; may be wave 3 within C for SPX from the mid-August low, time is running out, so becoming more likely that wave C up was complete in early Sept and that the coming high is a test for SPX, whereas DJ should complete wave C top near 13600 by mid-week (see labelled short-term chart below)
intermediate term - completing top (see my semiannual SPX projection through Jan 2008 below)
METALS
short term - metals completing 3rd wave from mid-August lows
intermediate term - next high in Oct (see my semiannual GC projection through Jan 2008)
OTHER MARKETS OF INTEREST
crude oil tested and broke early August high already, topping
sugar ready to start extended uptrend
Abbreviations:
AD = Australian dollar, BP = British pound, EC = Euro, Jy = Japanese yen;
C = corn, S = soybean, W = wheat;
SPX = S&P 500 index, DJ = Dow Jones Industrial index;
GC = gold, SI = silver, XAU = Philadelphia gold/silver mining index, HUI = unhedged gold/silver
mining index
Please do your own analyses before making trades
DISCUSSION
Alllovely wrote
really useful and informative lens. If you ever have a credit card from American Express if not get it from Amex credit card
Posted November 04, 2007
Jeff H wrote
The effect, no one has a meaure on the true extent of this deflationary crash. But we are right in the middle of a 1929 style deflation crash, it is world wide and debt on no margin, measure it what you will, the wave is here.
Posted September 29, 2007
Jeff H wrote
Wave structure is still up on the SPX, NDX looks funny, sold all my call this morning. The put buyers have to give in before we top. They have not yet.
Posted September 26, 2007
Jeff wrote
We seen a bubble of 1929 size, it is about the debt and forgiven of debt that cause deflation in the K-wave. I have the K-wave low stock 2002, a Gann 50% haircut, commodities 1998. It is about debt now just like 1929 margin debt
Posted September 26, 2007
abearden wrote
According to Gann cycles and other analyses, commodity prices have much further to go. When crude oil hits $100/barrel next month, it will make headlines. People's complaints about high heating bills in the colder climates will also make headlines this winter. That's inflation!
Posted September 21, 2007
abearden wrote
History says that the spike in Producers Price Index ended in 1919 and the spike in Consumer's Price Index ended in 1920. This was followed by a price plateau as stocks rose to a peak in 1929 and then deflation afterwards.
Posted September 21, 2007
Jeff H wrote
Brother, the size of this bubble is 1929, it effects the whole world, when demand decreases the prices of the above commodities will drop. The Tidal Wave is here, the thing is to be left standing at the end,
even better to profit from it.
Posted September 21, 2007
abearden wrote
My cost of living will go up sharply because of the recent surges in crude oil, grains, metals, etc. Isn't that inflation? Moreover, the sharp drop in the US dollar will make all imports go up sharply.
Posted September 21, 2007
Jeff H wrote
Inflation, poohy, a deflationary cycle is unfolding, the World Central Banks have pumped the system full of cash, this is a short term fix, the bubble has burst and the bear cycle must run its full course. 2010 low in real estate.
Posted September 21, 2007
iacomo wrote
Thanks a lot, David.
Posted September 20, 2007
Sept. 9, 2007 update
short term - EC bottomed early last Tu, new uptrend started
intermediate term - BP, EC and JY should be very strong for a month (see my euro projection through Jan 2008 above)
GRAINS
short term - C bottomed last Fri, strong uptrend for the grains, the top for grains should arrive slightly later than shown on my projection, W should be the strongest
intermediate term - important grain low in early Sept (see my S projection through Jan 2008 above)
INDICES
short term - very minor low here, SPX and DJ should test 1500 and 13500 areas, respectively, in one week
intermediate term - completing top (see my SPX projection through Jan 2008 above)
METALS
short term - should be stopped out of shorts, strong uptrend for a month
intermediate term - next high in Oct (see my GC projection through Jan 2008 above)
OTHER MARKETS OF INTEREST
crude oil should test early August high in the next two weeks
sugar is almost ready to start extended uptrend
Abbreviations:
AD = Australian dollar, BP = British pound, EC = Euro, Jy = Japanese yen;
C = corn, S = soybean, W = wheat;
SPX = S&P 500 index, DJ = Dow Jones Industrial index;
GC = gold, SI = silver, XAU = Philadelphia gold/silver mining index,
HUI = unhedged gold/silver mining index
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Reader Feedback
iacomo wrote
David, soy made a third up-gap today, I took it as an exhaustion ( no chance of a 4, so far) . So we either ended somewhat in soy, even a 3 would be welcomed, or just started.
If we gap down next week, we'll leave an island.
Posted September 20, 2007
Jeff H wrote
The point of no return, we have traded up to break away levels on the SPX, I see a lot of base patterns, we need to blow out to the upside within days or my count is history. If I am right 3 to 5 days of fast rally. This liquidity thing is scary at best.
Posted September 14, 2007
David_the_Avatar wrote
Jeff H,
Thanks for visiting and posting your valuable analyses. I hope to hear from the other guys.
Congratulations on selling your California real estate in June 2005 right at the top.
Posted September 11, 2007
Jeff H wrote
As forecasted wave iii of 3 appears underway, we should see strong A/D numbers and a fast move up to confirm a wave iii of 3. Taking out yesterdays low will kill this whole count.
Posted September 11, 2007
Jeff H wrote
when all that weak paper is final accounted for as worthless.
My call on a crash of Calif real estate was right on, I sold in June 2005 right at the top, I am getting a low near 2010.
We are going to re-balance the whole system, and in the process a lot of people are going to take some big losses.
Posted September 11, 2007
Sept. 2, 2007 update
short term - EC continued topping, ideally down through end of coming week
intermediate term - will resume uptrend from early Sept low (see euro map through Jan 2008 above)
GRAINS
short term - C dropped last week, more downtrend this coming week, should be stopped out of S
intermediate term - important grain low in early Sept, good time to buy W (see S map through Jan 2008 above)
INDICES
short term - next high in mid-Sept
intermediate term - uptrend (see SPX map through Jan 2008 above)
METALS
short term - precious metals and miners should be dropping through end of coming week
intermediate term - next good low in early Sept (see GC map through Jan 2008 above)
Abbreviations:
AD = Australian dollar, BP = British pound, EC = Euro, Jy = Japanese yen;
C = corn, S = soybean, W = wheat;
SPX = S&P 500 index, DJ = Dow Jones Industrial index;
GC = gold, SI = silver, XAU = Philadelphia gold/silver mining index, HUI = unhedged gold/silver
mining index
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Aug 26, 2007 update
short term - EC topping, downtrend this week
intermediate term - important low in early Sept (see euro map through Jan 2008 above)
GRAINS
short term - C topped last Th, S should complete top on 8/27 Mon, both should drop this week
intermediate term - important grain low in early Sept (see S map through Jan 2008 above)
INDICES
short term - very minor top here, following my map, next high in mid-Sept.
intermediate term - uptrend (see SPX map through Jan 2008 above)
METALS
short term - precious metals and miners completing top, nice short here
intermediate term - next good low in early Sept (see GC map through Jan 2008 above)
Abbreviations:
AD = Australian dollar, BP = British pound, EC = Euro, Jy = Japanese yen;
C = corn, S = soybean, W = wheat;
SPX = S&P 500 index, DJ = Dow Jones Industrial index;
GC = gold, SI = silver, XAU = Philadelphia gold/silver mining index, HUI = unhedged gold/silver
mining index
Please do your own analyses before making trades
Aug 19, 2007 update
short term - EC should be sideways to up for this whole week, then nice short for a retest of last Th's low
intermediate term - important low in Sept (see euro map through Jan 2008 above)
GRAINS
short term - C and S are good shorts, would cover November S short around 780
intermediate term - important W low in early Sept (see S map through Jan 2008 above)
INDICES
short term - following my map, next high in mid-Sept.
intermediate term - uptrend (see SPX map through Jan 2008 above)
METALS
short term - XAU and HUI should complete top by this Wed, GC should complete top by this Fri, nice short afterwards
intermediate term - next good low in early Sept (see GC map through Jan 2008 above)
Abbreviations:
AD = Australian dollar, BP = British pound, EC = Euro, Jy = Japanese yen;
C = corn, S = soybean, W = wheat;
SPX = S&P 500 index, DJ = Dow Jones Industrial index;
GC = gold, SI = silver, XAU = Philadelphia gold/silver mining index, HUI = unhedged gold/silver
mining index
Please do your own analyses before making trades.
Aug 12, 2007 update
short term - EC is almost ready to resume uptrend against the US dollar through early Sept
intermediate term - (see euro map through Jan 2008 above)
GRAINS
short term - the grains are completing tops this week, C good short late in week
intermediate term - (see S map through Jan 2008 above)
INDICES
short term - SPX testing bottom
intermediate term - (see SPX map through Jan 2008 above)
METALS
short term - precious metals and miners will have brief uptrend
intermediate term - next good low in early Sept (see GC map through Jan 2008 above)
Abbreviations:
AD = Australian dollar, BP = British pound, EC = Euro, Jy = Japanese yen;
C = corn, S = soybean, W = wheat;
SPX = S&P 500 index, DJ = Dow Jones Industrial index;
GC = gold, SI = silver, XAU = Philadelphia gold/silver mining index, HUI = unhedged gold/silver mining index
Please do your own analyses before making trades.
Note: Previous updates had been posted at this blog.
Reader Feedback
annemarie755 wrote
impressive
Posted July 11, 2009
Michael087 wrote
in reply to AB1111 Brokers are salepeople!
Posted June 18, 2009
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