AFL Dream Team Tips 2012

While the NAB cup is never a true indication of players potential, it is a good chance to get a close look at some of the players you can't quite decide on. The below players are on my radar and fighting for a place in my star studded team.

James Magner ($85,800) - This guys was almost a lock until his little injury. He should be right in the early rounds and may still be worth considering but he is likely to miss rd 1 at least.

Brian Lake ($255,200) - only played 5 games last year in an injury interrupted season but was an average in the mid 90's in 2010 he's definitely worth a look. He turns 30 this year but age doesn't always impact the backs the backs. Joel Bowden for example averaged 98.4 in 2008 when he turned 30, although Richmonds chipping around the back game plan did help his scores. Didn't play rd1 of NAB Cup but scored 28 in a half in rd2 before being vested.

Ryan Hargrave ($232,700) - Got a lot of attention in 2009 and subsequently burnt a lot of people in 2010 and 2011 with form issues and some foot problems. Could he turn it all around and return to 2009 form this year? A risky prospect, but could be glorious. Looked good in rd 1 of NAB Cup with scores of 47 and 47 in his two outings and followed up with 105 in rd 2.

Jason Winderlich ($246,100) - Missed the majority of last season with injury, but if he's up and running this season he could be a good choice. Keep in mind though he's never played out a full season with his best effort in 2008 and 2009 where he played 19 games each year. Didn't play rd 1 of NAB Cup and no game in rd 2 due to the Essendon no show.

Jonathan Brown ($331,400)- He turns 31 this year, but his body still looks in good shape. This guy can turn a match and light up the DT scoreboard. He has a proven track record of high scores despite his team being in the bottom half of the ladder for much of his career. With an improving midfield we could see a lot more ball coming his way, although his team hasn't looked good in the first 2 rounds of NAB cup and his injured his face AGAIN. I think avoid.

Shannon Byrnes ($197,900) - Lacks job security for me, especially with the rise of Christensen but he has shown the ability to score, infact he broke 100 four times in 2010. Played half a game in rd 2 and looked OK but not awesome.

James McDonald ($98,700) - A mid 90's average in 2010 before being delisted by Melbourne, Ronald has been given a second chance at the Giants. Given he's priced below most of their rookies, he is worth a look. Scored 38 in his first NAB Cup game this year but much quieter in rd 2 before being subbed at half time.

Jason Porplyzia ($202,500) - The porp isn't likely to blow games away with fist pumping high scores, but I wouldn't be suprised to see him average 75 to 80 this year, especially given that the Crows are expecting a better year without Craigy. Injury has always been the concern with this guy but at this price I'm willing to take the risk. Looked good in rd 2 scoring 53 after being subbed on in Q3.

Allen Christensen ($338,800) - There has been a lot of talk about this guy stepping up in 2012. If people are expecting a Shiels like rise then I think they will be bitterly disappointed. I'll be watching his preseason but I have a much lower opinion of this guy than most. I'm expecting an average of 75 to 80. He will probably crack the ton from time to time but I expect he will also go missing.

Rhys Palmer ($323,500) - This guy was BIG when he hit the AFL in 2008 scoring 87 in his first game and keeping that average for the year. Injuries and discontent have kept his scores down in the last few seasons but with a start at GWS he could explode! Scored 48 in his first NAB Cup game this year and 77 in the round 2.

Liam Anthony ($378,200) - Entering his 4th year and could explode. I guess it depends on what he learnt from last year. Not for me though. He didn't show much in his first NAB Cup hitout.

Lachie Neale ($98,700) - Fremantle have a good track record of playing the younger players and rewarding the DT owners. Neale down before this guy as he will be one of the cash cows of the year. He'll sell for a pretty penny at the mid year slaughterhouse as his early NAB Cup form suggests. An injury in rd 3 of the NAB cup has reduced his stocks but I'd still consider this guy.

Plenty of GWS Players! - While you shouldn't read too much into NAB Cup games, the GWS boys looked better than expected in thier first hit out (except Israel Folau). Jonathan Giles ($117,800) performed well in the ruck, Sam Darley ($104,200) and Tomas Bugg ($104,200) looked promising as cheap defensive options while Rhys Cooyou ($119,800) was promising up forward. Anthony Miles ($104,200), Devon Smith and Dom Tyson ($170,700) deserve a look in the midfield and will be watched closely for the rest of the preseason. Round 2 probably showed a more realistic score line getting hammered by the Hawks.

2012 brings an eighteenth team into the competition. There are plenty of cheap GWS players available this year but don't rely too heavily on them to bring in the cheap points. Last year only 4 Gold Coast players averaged over 80 for the season and they were all established players(Ablett, Rischitelli, Brennan and Bock). Furthermore only 7 players played 20 or more games for the season. This suggests players in a new team are likely to return only modest scores (expect a ceiling of 70 from a good pickup), and may well be rotated out of the team when you need them most. If you are happy with a ceiling of 70 odd points and for your players to be rotated in and out of the team then pick away, I'd limit myself to a couple of the better GWS prospects while looking elsewhere for the guys due for a breakout year.

This year round all the teams will have a bye between rounds 11 to 13, woth 6 byes each week. This mean over these 3 rounds all of your players will have a week off. To 'help us out' we've been allowed 3 trades in each of these rounds, but even if we do burn through the trades in these weeks chances are we will still cop a few donuts. There is a mathimatical possibility of getting through the 3 rounds without a donut but this requires your full list to play and for you to have at least 3 dual position ruckman. With a lack of quality ruckmans with dual position eligibility I think you're better off having a better structures team and taking the donuts. If you need more info on these techniques they are discussed throughout fanfooty and DTTalk. Below are the key ideas to keep in mind coming into the bye rounds to minimise the damage.

Any player you trade in for round 11 will have a subsequent bye in round 12 or 13. You are better off preplanning to ensure you have sufficient round 11 players from the start. Then you can save your trades for the business end of the season.

Coming into the bye rounds you ideally want to have a fairly balanced team - ie similar number of players with a bye in each round (in each position). You'll also want to think about your captain choices. If you only have 2 guns in your team you don't want them to have the bye in the same week or you'll have to risk the captaincy on someone else. The teams with byes are shown below:

Rd 11 - Adelaide, Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney, North Melbourne, West Coast, Bulldogs
Rd 12 - Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Melbourne, Swans
Rd 13 - Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Port, Richmond, St Kilda

Note: Swan, Pendles, Watson, Selwood, Bartel, Stevie J, Barlow all have the rd 12 bye.

With a little bit of planning we can use the 3 trades in rounds 12 and 13 to both avoid too many donuts and upgrade out teams. Ideally we want our rookies (cash cows) to play round 11. In rounds 12 you should be looking to upgrade rookies with the rd12 bye for guns who had the bye in rd11. Similarly in rd13 we want to upgrade our rookies with byes for players that have already had their bye.

There are a number of players that show a lot of promise each year but give us nothing but disappointment. They'll try to lure you in but do not succumb to them. I've vowed never to recruit the below players having been burnt on numerous occassions

Higgins - One of the softest players in the competition, and also one of the worst performers in the last round of the year (being DT final) with scores of 30, DNP, 85 and 40 in his last 4 DT grand finals. Always gets into a lot of teams early with some high early scores, but his body is not capable of a full season.

Adcock - One of the greatest teasers of the last few years. He hasn't played a full season since 2007 and his body is just too flaccid to endure top flight football. Needs to harden up before being considered DT worthy, particularly at his relatively high price.

Sylvia - Another injury prone player that teases us promise. Now entering his 9th year, he is yet to play 20 games in a season. Avoid

Chapman - Too old for me. His hammy's have cost me some big games over the years and with age they are becoming a bigger and bigger risk. Sure he had a good year last year, but this guy is a ticking timebomb.

Pettard - I'm a big fan of this guy. For a small guy his tackles crunch like celery, but unfortunately so do his bones. He averages 10 games a year since his rookie year in 2007.

Grimes - Maybe it's a Melbourne thing. He has the potential to be a DT hero but has never managed more than 14 games in a season.

Drummond - Shows promise from time to time but averages just over 11 games a season over 7 year.

Broughton - Tends to operate in cycles. He can be hot for several weeks but can also go cold for just as long. His potential value this year may depend on his role in the team. He's burnt me once to many times for me to consider.

Gray - I can't believe I almost forgot to mention this chap. He promises a lot but he'll never deliver due to the lack of durability in his body and his nasty habit of resting in the most barron area on a footy ground - the Port Adelaide forward pocket.

It's always tempting to trade out a premium after a couple of bad performances, particularly when you see the value dropping. The best thing to do is hold your trades, unless injured a premium will always return to form. If you don't take my advice then beware that their next big score will be the week after you dump them. The past is littered with examples of premiums redeeming themselves.

2011
Swan was well down on form in rounds 9 to 11 with scores of 94, 89, 83 followed by a week off where he went to Arizona to treat his injuries. A lot of people dumped the fallen star however he returned with scores of 125, 130 & 148. In fact over the 10 weeks after his week off Swan averaged 132.9.

Goddard had a lean start to the year reaching triple figures only once in the first 7 rounds. While a lot of people jumped off the wagon the coaches that stuck it out saw him average over 100 for the rest of the season including 9 scores over 100 in the last 15 games.

Similarly Hodge couldn't crack the 100 until round 7. After this he scores also scored at an average over 100 for the remaining games of the season.

A lot of claims are made about when a player will have their breakout year. A look at the top 20 midfielders in 2011 (as well as a few other select picks) shows that a player can breakout at anytime. If you have a good feeling about a player don't let their lack of experience hold you back. I personally like the look of the 4th year breakouts so I'll be looking for a few 4th year players this year.

Year in which player first averaged above 80:
1st year - Ed Barlow
2nd year - Bryce Gibbs, Scott Pendlebury, Brent Stanton, Matt Priddis, Dayne Beams, Nathan Fyfe
3rd year - Rockliff, Redden, Marc Murphy, Chris Judd, Jimmy Bartel, LIam Shiels
4th year - Dane Swan, Matthew Boyd, Sam Mitchell, Nick Dal Santo, Jobe Watson
5th year - Scott Thompson, Dale Thomas
6th year - Gary Ablett, Steve Johnson
7th year - Paul Chapman
8th year - Heath Scotland

Every year one of the gun rucks goes down mid season. These are generally listed as 2-3 week injuries, but history shows that once a ruck goes down for more than a week they are as good as gone for the year. Avoid the lengthy decision and ditch the big boy.

Need proof?

2011
Sandilands - Initially injured his big toe during the clash against Port Adelaide in round 9. This was listed as a 3-4 week injury however he ended up missing 9 of the next 10 games. Who would have thought a stubbed toe would result in 9 weeks out.

Jolly - Assessed as a 2 week knee injury, DJ missed 7 games in a row.

Mumford - Injured in round 9, Mumford was expected to miss 1 game but actually missed 5 of the next 6 games

2010
Hille - Sufferend a hamstring strain which the coach described as a two week injury. Hille missed 7 weeks.

Seaby - After an ankle injury in round 6 Seaby was listed as a 12 week injury. If that wasn't long enough he didn't play until round 9 of the following year.

2009
Cox - suffered from a groin compliain in Round 12. After a week off he was listed as a test in the official injury listing however he ended up only playing one game for the rest of the season.