Amitabh Bachchan

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Health experts 'surprised' by UK spread of swine flu

? Scientists were 'caught napping' by outbreak, says flu expert ? Under 30s at greatest risk from pandemic One of the world's most respected influenza scientists said today that health officials had been surprised by the spread of swine flu. Dr Alan Hay, director of the London-based World Influenza Centre, said the extensive summer outbreak in Britain had not followed expected patterns and warned the Department of Health needed to be prepared for a more deadly form of the disease. "We have been a little surprised by the degree of spread of this virus. A few weeks ago we anticipated that this was going to be a short series of outbreaks that would probably peter out before reappearing in the autumn or winter and that has proved not to be the case." Hay added: ? Some of the background health concerns noted against flu deaths would not have been fatal, noting an American case where the underlying cause was obesity ? The flu surveillance community had been "caught napping" by the emergence of the swine flu outbreak as most resources were concentrated on guarding against a bird flu pandemic ? He was concerned about the emergence since 2007 of drug-resistant flu, which could impact on the pandemic virus. Seventeen people in the UK have died after contracting swine flu and 335 people have been treated in hospital after contracting the virus. But tens of thousands are visiting GPs with flu-like symptoms every week, according to the Health Protection Agency. The latest deaths were of a six-year-old girl from north-west London and a GP from Bedfordshire. Hay, who advises the World Health Organisation on its flu policy, said it had become clear the flu pandemic was predominantly affecting children aged five to 14, with the majority of cases nationally and internationally affecting people under 30. Those born before the 1957 flu pandemic appeared to be particularly resistant to the outbreak, indicating they carried some residual immunity. Hay said the current outbreak would probably continue for another "week or two" before re-emerging in the autumn and early winter. However, the high level of sufferers now could mean that an autumn outbreak would be less severe. "We are already experiencing this extensive outbreak of the flu at the present time. The people who are being affected will have reasonable immunity against the virus if it reappears during the winter season, which we anticipate. That will lessen the impact subsequently [on health services]," he said. "So forecasting what will happen is rather difficult but what the Department of Health has to be prepared for is for there to be significant demand on health services resources." Of particular concern was that the virus, which has caused only mild illness in most cases, could become more deadly. "The concern is that the situation might change, the virus may become more virulent," Hay said. "The proportion of severe infections might increase. And fatalities might increase. We have been monitoring this quite intensively in the labs all around the world and have been seeing some minor changes in the viruses." Hay said there had been a small number of cases of resistance to antiviral drugs but no sustained emergence of resistance. "We're not totally sure what to expect. Because on the one hand, prior to a year ago, really the anticipation was for very low levels of drug resistance, and then we had the experience in late 2007 with the emergence of drug resistance of seasonal H1N1. And those emerged to become the predominant seasonal virus that has circulated recently. That was really an unanticipated event. We don't know what the implications of that are in the emergence of this novel virus. It is a concern." Hay concurred that most people who had died from the outbreak had underlying health problems, but said that those may not have been life-threatening. "Would they have died anyway? I think the answer to that is probably no," said Hay. "Those who have underlying conditions included one that was identified in the US was obesity. So these people were not going to die of obesity in the next month or two I suspect. Some people may have been in a more critical condition." Flu surveillance scientists, who had been concentrating resources on looking for a bird flu pandemic, had been surprised by the swine flu outbreak, he added. "We were not anticipating a virus of this nature causing a pandemic. All our eyes were focusing on the H5N1 virus that had been circulating in wild and domestic poultry populations. "We have been observing similar viruses to this pandemic in pigs in the past 10 years in the US. And because it was antigenically related to the viruses already circulating ? it was the same H1N1 subtype ? it was not perceived as being a major threat. Of course we were caught napping, you might say, but this is what has transpired. "We don't really know the way this virus might change as it adapts to the human population and what the consequences of such changes might be." Swine fluNHSguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

Goldman Sachs set for big bonuses

? Investment bank delivers profits of $3.44bn ? Big bonuses likely to be paid to 29,400 Goldman Sachs staff The Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs has milked the recovery in global financial markets to generate a surge in quarterly profits to $3.44bn (£2.11bn), raising the prospect of a bumper bonus handout of as much as $700,000 for each of its 29,400 staff. Goldman's figures, equivalent to profits of $38m per day, smashed analysts' forecasts and amounted to an increase of 65% over the second quarter of 2008. The results confirmed Goldman's status as one of the stand-out winners from the credit crunch which paralysed financial markets for much of last year. Much of the bank's success came from its trading and principal investments division, where revenue almost doubled with a 93% leap to $10.78bn. David Viniar, Goldman's chief financial officer, put the bank's higher profits down to "basic blocking and tackling from the front". Viniar said Goldman had done "very well" on its trading floor: "It was very widespread, day after day, client-facing business in very liquid markets and very liquid products." Viniar said the bank had a "very, very strong culture of risk management" and had secured loyalty from its clients: "At the depths of the crisis, we were there trying to provide them with liquidity and with the services they wanted." During the quarter, Goldman dedicated 49% of its revenue to paying its staff ? amounting to a compensation fund of $6.65bn. If the bank's bottom line continues to prosper, analysts expect that Goldman will generate an annual bonus pool of as much as $20bn by the end of the year, which would mean average payouts of nearly $700,000 for its employees ? almost double last year's figure of $363,000. Such payouts have aroused huge controversy. In London, where Goldman employs 5,500 staff, some 38 MPs have signed an early day motion noting the prospect of the bank's bonuses "with concern" and calling on the government to intervene over vast payouts in the financial industry. One Labour MP, Lindsay Hoyle, last week complained that bankers were being rewarded with "suitcases full of money". Defending the bank's compensation practices, Viniar said Goldman had a long established "pay for performance" policy and pointed out that staff saw a sharp drop in payouts when times were tougher in 2008. But he said: "If we do perform well, our employees will be rewarded appropriately." Goldman's success has generated its fair share of detractors. Critics point out that the bank was the biggest counterparty in financial insurance policies to the insurer AIG and that its collateral calls contributed to the giant US company's collapse, requiring AIG to seek $150bn of government aid. Furthermore, Goldman received $10bn itself from the US government's troubled asset relief fund, which it paid back last month to avoid any further caps on dividends or remuneration. The bank paid out $717m in dividends to preferred stockholders, including the US Treasury, to leave it with $2.71bn of profit attributable to common shareholders. The firm converted to a "bank holding company" last year, allowing it to take retail deposits, as the business model of a standalone Wall Street bank came under threat. As rivals such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers failed, the credit crunch has eliminated weaker players in the banking business, leaving the remaining trading houses with less vibrant competition. Viniar said there was "definitely less risk capital" at play in the markets. Cubillas Ding, an analyst at the Boston-based financial consultancy Celent, said: "Goldman has possessed a sharp eye to jump into areas where others fear to tread. Being swift to remove the constraints of government Tarp [Troubled Asset Relief Programme] arrangements also means that the firm can capitalise on opportunities to lure investment banking talent from faltering peers." Goldman SachsUS economyUnited StatesFinancial crisisGlobal recessionguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

Guardian shows MPs hacking proof

Documents produced by Nick Davies involve senior News of the World journalists in Mulcaire affair ? How the Guardian committee hearing unfolded The Guardian today produced evidence to MPs that shows phone-hacking at the News of the World was more widespread than its owner News International had claimed. Documents passed to the Commons culture, media and sport committee, which is investigating phone hacking, reveal that Neville Thurlbeck, the paper's chief reporter, read transcripts of 35 hacked telephone messages between PFA chief executive Gordon Taylor and Jo Armstrong, a legal advisor at the PFA. They were sent in an email to Glenn Mulcaire, a private investigator on the paper's payroll, by an unnamed junior reporter on the paper on 29 June 2005. In the email, the reporter says "Hello, this is the transcript for Neville". The committee was told by Guardian reporter Nick Davies this was Neville Thurlbeck. Mulcaire was used by the paper's former royal editor, Clive Goodman, who was jailed in January 2007 along with Mulcaire. Executives at the NoW's owner, News International, have always maintained that Mulcaire and Goodman were acting alone and without the knowledge of managers or executives at the paper. A second document is a contract between the News of the World and Glenn Mulcaire offering him a bonus of £7,000 if he worked to develop a story they were after. It includes the name of Greg Miskiw, then the paper's assistant editor in charge of news. It used the false name of Paul Williams but was sent to Mulcaire. MPs were also shown an invoice from an unnamed private investigator for work carried out for the News Group, which publishes NI's tabloid titles, dating back to 1998. Nick Davies, the Guardian reporter who wrote the story, told the committee: "It is hard to resist the conclusion that [News International] have consistently admitted only what has been dragged into the public domain and is indisputable." Earlier, PCC director Tim Toulmin told MPs. "People had raised eyebrows that Andy Coulson did not know what was going on. I would say ? having been exposed as not knowing ? he then resigned because he did not know what was going on. For that reason he resigned and paid a high price." The Guardian's editor, Alan Rusbridger, said: "This is not a campaign to oust anyone, to reopen the police inquiry, for more prosecutions [or to] force anyone to resign. We have not called for any of those." He added that one of the key questions was whether self regulation of the press was "effective". ? To contact the MediaGuardian news desk email editor@mediaguardian.co.uk or phone 020 3353 3857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 3353 2000. ? If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication". News of the WorldNews InternationalNational newspapersNewspapersNewspapers & magazinesPrivacy & the mediaPrivacyguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

BBC bosses 'leaving staff in despair'

Culture secretary Ben Bradshaw makes strong attack on Mark Thompson and Sir Michael Lyons over BBC licence fee The culture secretary, Ben Bradshaw, has attacked the BBC director general, Mark Thompson, and Sir Michael Lyons, the chairman of the BBC Trust, for "self-defeating" and "wrong-headed" resistance to sharing the licence fee with other broadcasters. BBC management had lost the confidence of many of their senior staff who had been left with "almost a feeling of despair", he said. Speaking on the eve of the publication of the corporation's annual report, Bradshaw said Thompson and Lyons were misguided in their resistance to government plans, outlined in Lord Carter's Digital Britain report, to share some of the £3.6bn licence fee with rival broadcasters. "[There] are plenty of people within the BBC that do not feel it is a well-led organisation and that is almost for me the most worrying thing," Bradshaw told the Financial Times. "And they don't feel they are being well-led on this issue. It fits into a pattern. It is not the only issue. There is almost a feeling of despair among a lot of highly respected BBC professionals." Digital Britain outlined proposals for the BBC to share some of the licence fee with other broadcasters for the first time in its history. Around £130m of licence payers' money will go towards ITV regional news programmes, and possibly children's programming. Thompson accused ministers of having an "ideological" motivation for the plan, while Lyons said the BBC Trust would not "sit quietly by and watch this happen". Bradshaw, who succeeded Andy Burnham as culture secretary last month and is himself a former BBC journalist, said: "I don't know why they have adopted this position. I don't think it's sensible. "I think it's wrongheaded and will ultimately be self-defeating. And there are plenty of people I know in the BBC who agree with me. "I think the BBC is far more likely to be able to make a strong case in future for the retention of the licence fee if it sees itself as an organisation that is not just simply always interested in defending its own narrow interests, but has a broader role in terms of defending and providing high-quality public-service content." This echoed Bradshaw's comments at the all-party parliamentary media group's summer reception last month, where he said he rejected the idea that top-slicing threatened the future of the licence fee. "I think the opposite is the case," he said. "It is far more likely to secure the licence fee if you share it, rather than end it." Bradshaw told the FT that a consultation period lasting until early September was "an opportunity for the leadership of the BBC to show some leadership rather than feel that the bunker is the place they want to be in". He said the idea that the top-slicing plans were ideologically motivated was "nonsense". "We have an ideological commitment to ensuring that the public gets high quality public service provision in those areas which the public tell us matter to them ? and local and regional news are at the top of that list." ? To contact the MediaGuardian news desk email editor@mediaguardian.co.uk or phone 020 3353 3857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 3353 2000. ? If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication". BBC licence feeBBCTelevisionBen Bradshawguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

Conductor dies at Swiss suicide clinic

Sir Edward Downes, who conducted first Sydney Opera House performance, ends life with wife, Joan, in Switzerland One of Britain's most respected conductors, Sir Edward Downes, and his wife, Joan, a choreographer and TV producer, have died at an assisted suicide clinic in Switzerland, their family said today. Downes, 85, was almost blind when he and his 74-year-old wife, who had become his full-time carer, travelled to Switzerland to end their lives, a family statement released to the BBC said. Born in Birmingham, Downes had a long and distinguished career, including conducting the first performance at the Sydney Opera House. He worked with the BBC Philharmonic and the Royal Opera House in London. The statement from the couple's son and daughter, Caractacus and Boudicca, said they "died peacefully, and under circumstances of their own choosing". The statement continued: "After 54 happy years together, they decided to end their own lives rather than continue to struggle with serious health problems." The couple died at a clinic run by Dignitas, the Swiss organisation that operates a specialist euthanasia service. The Downes family said: "Our father, who was 85 years old, almost blind and increasingly deaf, had a long, vigorous and distinguished career as a conductor. "Our mother, who was 74, started her career as a ballet dancer and subsequently worked as a choreographer and TV producer before dedicating the last years of her life to working as our father's personal assistant. "They both lived life to the full and considered themselves to be extremely lucky to have lived such rewarding lives, both professionally and personally." Downes was knighted in 1991.A Metropolitan police spokesman said Greenwich CID had launched an investigation. "We continue to investigate the circumstances of their deaths. [There are] no further details at this stage," he said. In the past, police have investigated cases in which British people have travelled to the Dignitas clinic. Anyone assisting a person to commit suicide could face up to 14 years in prison. Prosecutors have not pushed forward cases against families and friends of the growing numbers of Britons who have travelled to Dignitas to die, however, and there is fierce debate about whether the law should be changed to protect people from prosecution. Last December, the Crown Prosecution Service announced it would take no action against the family of 23-year-old Daniel James, who travelled to Switzerland to die after being paralysed from the chest down in a rugby accident. The police did not investigate the deaths earlier this year of Peter and Penelope Duff, who became the first terminally ill British couple to be helped to die together in Switzerland. Last week, the House of Lords voted against an attempt by the former lord chancellor Lord Falconer to relax the law on assisted suicide. His amendment to the coroners and justice bill would have allowed people to help someone with a terminal illness travel to a country where assisted suicide is legal. Debbie Purdy, who has multiple sclerosis, is seeking to clarify the law in the House of Lords. She wants a ruling that her husband will not be prosecuted if he helps her travel abroad to die. Some people fear that relaxing the law on assisted suicide would lead to an increase in cases, and put people at risk of being pushed into taking their own lives. Gordon Brown is against a change in the law. Assisted suicideClassical music and operaSwitzerlandguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds