Making great NFL picks

Hello visitors, here is Inside the Numbers Picks Six from NFL week 1, and how they performed against the closing NFL line.

• Bet made: $100 on Atlanta to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -250
  
  
  • Result: Win $140.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $140.00 - $100.00 = $40.00
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Minnesota to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -200
  
  
  • Result: Win $150.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $150.00 - $100.00 = $50.00
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Baltimore to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -135
  
  
  • Result: Win $174.07
  
  
  • Net Profit: $174.07 - $100.00 = $74.07
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Green Bay to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: +145
  
  
  • Result: Loss $0.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $0.00 - $100.00 = -$100.00
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Green Bay to Cover Spread
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -110
  
  
  • Result: Loss $0.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $0.00 - $100.00 = -$100.00
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Over OAK @ BUF
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -110
  
  
  • Result: Win $190.91
  
  
  • Net Profit: $190.91 - $100.00 = $90.91
  
  


• Overall profit week 3: $54.98


• YTD profit: $449.17 or 24.9% ROI
  

Real Points:
This is a pure strength of schedule ranking where a team earns points only for wins based on the quality of their opponent.
Win Grade:
This is a fundamental score based ranking. A team earns points for how well it plays in fundamental areas, and then those points are factored in with how often that team wins.

Together these two ranking systems form a dynamic base from where we will make our predictions. The two rankings are quite different on purpose, and each one has its strengths and weaknesses. When looking at a matchup between two teams, the rankings will show us which team is better against the field of all NFL teams. This is a good start, but to truly make winning picks we have to analyze how the two teams match up against each other, which is step 2.

2. Now its time to compare and contrast smaller components of each team rather then the team as a whole. We look at many different matchups, including rushing, passing, turnovers, home and away stats, and others. If a team matches up well against their opponent we mark it with a value and set it aside for later. Then we look inside our rankings to the numbers that create them and see if there are any hints that a team is over/under rated, or if a team is over/under playing its abilities. Once this is done we move two the last step where we put it all together.

3. We understand our ranking system very well, and know which matchups agree with them, and which do not. We combine the data from the rankings with the values from our matchups to make a final prediction. If the matchups that disagree with the rankings are strong enough in value, it can overturn the rankings and create an upset. When all the calculations have been completed, we will have picked a winner, a point spread, and an over/under total score. Check it all out at Inside the Numbers: NFL picks, stats, and rankings or link directly to our Historical NFL past years and records section.

Hello visitors, here is Inside the Numbers Picks Six from NFL week 1, and how they performed against the closing NFL line.

• Bet made: $100 on Oakland to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: +160
  
  
  • Result: Win $260.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $260.00 - $100.00 = $160.00
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Tennessee to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: +100
  
  
  • Result: Win $200.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $200.00 - $100.00 = $100.00
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Arizona to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -280
  
  
  • Result: Win $135.71
  
  
  • Net Profit: $135.71 - $100.00 = $35.71
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Denver to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -120
  
  
  • Result: Win $183.33
  
  
  • Net Profit: $183.33 - $100.00 = $82.33
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Oakland to Cover Spread
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -110
  
  
  • Result: Win $190.91
  
  
  • Net Profit: $190.91 - $100.00 = $90.91
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Over ATL @ TB
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -110
  
  
  • Result: Loss $0.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $0.00 - $100.00 = -$100.00
  
  


• Overall Profit: $369.96

Hello visitors, here is Inside the Numbers Picks Six from NFL week 1, and how they performed against the closing NFL line.

• Bet made: $100 on Green Bay to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -135
  
  
  • Result: Win $174.07
  
  
  • Net Profit: $174.07 - $100.00 = $74.07
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Dallas to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -280
  
  
  • Result: Win $135.71
  
  
  • Net Profit: $135.71 - $100.00 = $35.71
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Philadelphia to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -425
  
  
  • Result: Win $123.53
  
  
  • Net Profit: $123.53 - $100.00 = $23.53
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Washington to Win
  
  • Closing Line Odds: +180
  
  
  • Result: Loss $0.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $0.00 - $100.00 = -$100.0
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Green Bay to Cover Spread
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -110
  
  
  • Result: Win $190.91
  
  
  • Net Profit: $190.91 - $100.00 = $90.91
  
  


• Bet made: $100 on Under HOU @ PIT
  
  • Closing Line Odds: -110
  
  
  • Result: Loss $0.00
  
  
  • Net Profit: $0.00 - $100.00 = -$100.00
  
  


• Overall Profit: $24.23