Conservation, Population, and Exponential Growth
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Vex Populi
In recent years, there has been increasing efforts to educate the public as to the importance of conservation. But if conservation is all we do, it may be worse than doing nothing at all because it gives the false impression that we are addressing the real problem.
Bacteria and Bottles
One of my more lasting memories of going to the University of Colorado were talks by Al Bartlett, a member the physics department who gave regular public lectures on overpopulation. Professor Bartlett presented the following quiz (which I've paraphrased here a bit) as a way of illustrating the power of exponential growth.
Suppose we put a single bacterium in a bottle at 11 AM. It doesn't have to be bacteria; any reproducing organism will work to illustrate the point. But let's use bacteria. I will tell you this kind of bacteria divides once per minute. I will also tell you that precisely at noon, the bacteria have filled the bottle. At this point, they have no more room to grow, so all the bacteria die. Here is a question: at what time was the bottle HALF full?
You have all the information you need to answer the question: you don't need to know how big the bottle is or how many bacteria there are. It's not a trick question, it's a thinking game.
Suppose we put a single bacterium in a bottle at 11 AM. It doesn't have to be bacteria; any reproducing organism will work to illustrate the point. But let's use bacteria. I will tell you this kind of bacteria divides once per minute. I will also tell you that precisely at noon, the bacteria have filled the bottle. At this point, they have no more room to grow, so all the bacteria die. Here is a question: at what time was the bottle HALF full?
You have all the information you need to answer the question: you don't need to know how big the bottle is or how many bacteria there are. It's not a trick question, it's a thinking game.
Overpopulation 101
The topic of Professor Bartlett's talk was not bacteria growth but the growth of human population. It is natural to think that humanity has been around for quite a while, and growing all that time, so what's the big deal? Many people don't realize that population did not increase gradually and steadily to its current level. Rather, world human population grew slowly until roughly the beginning of the 20th century, at which point it began to climb sharply.
Actual scholarly graphs detailing population history are easy to find on the web. However, the fun graph above illustrates the main point: a relatively recent (and we might add: alarming) increase in world population. This may seem counterintuitive. Didn't, say, the Romans live about as long as we do now? (yes, they did). Didn't women have a lot of babies in past times? (yes, they did). What about the terrible wars of the 20th century that killed millions? (barely makes a noticeable dent in the climb). What is going on?
Consensus seems to be that the change was due to advances in medicine that reduced infant mortality. And - although it may sound cold - infant mortality is what had previously kept our numbers in check. If you did not live, you did not live to have children of your own. Modern medicine gave us healthy babies; these babies grew up to have babies of their own, which grew up to have babies of their own, and so forth. The net result was an explosive growth of population that continues to the present day.
Exponential Growth
This kind of "multiplicative" process driving world population is known as exponential growth (footnote for nerds: we are, of course, oversimplifying: human population growth is only approximately exponential: at times it has grown faster and at other times slower than exponential . We're also blurring the distinction between exponential and geometric growth). Exponential growth describes any process in which the growth-rate-of-stuff is proportional to how-much-stuff there is. It works for human and bacteria populations; it also works for compound interest and nuclear chain reactions. Exponential growth appears in the parable of the chessboard.; it has been used as an advertising hook ("you tell two friends, and they tell two, and so on, and so on"). Also, exponential growth is the central concept of zombie movies ("...Every dead body that is not exterminated becomes one of them. It gets up and kills! The people it kills get up and kill!" - Dr. James Foster.).
Exponential Growth, Simplified
We can simplify all this to something that fits on a t-shirt:This is the equation describing exponential growth: N is the size of the population, dN/dt is how fast the population is growing, and c is some positive number (the exact value is not important for our discussion, but c went up when infant mortality dropped).
Exponential growth means that the rate at which a population grows is proportional to the size of the population. Importantly, the population grows faster as it gets larger. This sounds like something that can create problems. Are there adverse effects? What are the adverse effects? How long can growth continue? Should it continue?
The Bottle Begins to Feel Crowded
Population comes at a price. A person requires resources, so a large population must require a large amount of resources. These resources include the obvious food and water, but also things like energy and livable space. In consuming these resources, a population stresses the environment, often to the detriment of the individuals in the population themselves.
It's not hard to find indications that humans are headed for trouble - climate change, diminishing irrigable farmland, falling fish populations, emergent diseases, record species extinction, rising toxicity levels, increasing desert encroachment - to name only a few items on a long list of warning signs. The good news is that people are becoming increasingly aware of the problem. Perhaps at no other time in history has there been more discussion and debate about the global environment. People begin to understand: this isn't tree hugging, it's self-preservation.
It's not hard to find indications that humans are headed for trouble - climate change, diminishing irrigable farmland, falling fish populations, emergent diseases, record species extinction, rising toxicity levels, increasing desert encroachment - to name only a few items on a long list of warning signs. The good news is that people are becoming increasingly aware of the problem. Perhaps at no other time in history has there been more discussion and debate about the global environment. People begin to understand: this isn't tree hugging, it's self-preservation.
Conservation is Good
Organizations and individuals concerned about the environment have identified many creative ways each of us can help, such as those listed above.
There is, however, something odd about these suggestions.
In fact, there is something odd about the entire mainstream environmental debate.
Conservation will Fail
If you want to reduce consumption of a resource, there are two things you can do: 1) reduce individual consumption, and 2) reduce the number of consumers.Environmental organizations work hard to educate the public in ways to reduce consumption. Yet, not only do they not give equal emphasis to reducing population, it's not part of their message at all. This seems, to put it bluntly, bizarre.
This is not to imply that reducing consumption is bad. Conservation is an excellent idea. Recycling is an excellent idea. The problem is that any effort to reduce consumption, individually or collectively, will be overwhelmed by continued population growth. The human population could consist entirely of sustenance farmers and, left to grow without bound, our numbers would still eventually exhaust the planet's resources.
A Different View
The problem is not food supply. The problem is not clean water. The problem is not diminishing irrigable farmland. The problem is not landfills. The problem is not desert encroachment. The problem is not algae blooms. The problem is not mine runoff. The problem is not industrial farming. The problem is not falling fish levels or rising mercury levels. The problem is not the rainforest. The problem is not a lack of public transportation. The problem is not energy consumption.
The problem is population. Population is the engine driving this madness. All other problems are symptoms.
A Modest Proposal
Our solution fits on a button:One child per couple for a century. This would reduce world population to pre-20th century levels, before the explosive expansion began.
A serious proposal? Certainly it is an oversimplification. For example, it ignores the fact that persons living in developed countries have a much larger impact on the global environment that those living in underdeveloped countries. Also, some will say any effort to reduce population invites abuse, or that the idea is an affront to cultural or religious traditions of large families, or that it will bankrupt the tax base. These are valid concerns. But such concerns ignore an unpleasant truth: there will come a day when our population cannot grow further. Logically, biologically, physically, a population cannot grow indefinitely. We can decide for ourselves how to control population growth now, or nature will decide for us later. And nature can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pain or fear or pity or remorse.
What Time is It?
Let's return to our bacteria: the answer is 11:59 - the bottle becomes half-full at one minute before noon (many people reflexively answer 11:30). You may convince yourself of the correct answer by working backward. If the bacteria divide once every minute and the bottle is full now (noon), then then one minute ago (11:59) the bottle was half-full.
The point is not that the bottle fills up; the point is how little warning there is before things go horribly wrong. That is the real danger of exponential growth.
There is a second part to the quiz:
Suppose a clever bacterium notices the bottle is getting crowded, decides life is about to turn unpleasant, and after some frantic searching finds a second bottle. "Hooray!" cry the bacteria, "we are saved!" They have doubled their living space. From the bacteria's perspective, it's as if they have discovered a second earth. The bacteria continue to divide once per minute. And now comes a question: How much more time does the second bottle buy them?
Answer: one minute.
The point is not that the bottle fills up; the point is how little warning there is before things go horribly wrong. That is the real danger of exponential growth.
There is a second part to the quiz:
Suppose a clever bacterium notices the bottle is getting crowded, decides life is about to turn unpleasant, and after some frantic searching finds a second bottle. "Hooray!" cry the bacteria, "we are saved!" They have doubled their living space. From the bacteria's perspective, it's as if they have discovered a second earth. The bacteria continue to divide once per minute. And now comes a question: How much more time does the second bottle buy them?
Answer: one minute.
An Opposing View
Population Research Institute
The Population Research Institute (PRI) is a non-profit organization working to end China's one-child policy. The PRI also has a strong anti-abortion position, consistent with the organization's ties to the Catholic church. Their larger message is that concerns over population growth are at best misguided, arguing that steps to limit population invite human rights abuse in developing countries and will destroy the tax base in the industrialized world. They have have produced some rather slick animations arguing their position that are available on YouTube (see below).
The ostensible goals of the PRI are commendable (I don't know of anyone who is pro-human-rights-abuse or, shrill right-wing commentary notwithstanding, pro-abortion). However, It seems rather inefficient - one might even say disingenuous - to couch such efforts as population policy. If you wish to fight human rights abuses, then fight human rights abuses. If you wish to oppose abortion, then oppose abortion. Machinations make one's motives suspect. In fact, some have claimed that the de facto agenda of the PRI - whether intentional or not - is the suppression of woman's rights. This gives some indication of the passions that population issues invariably excite, just as the comments on the PRI YouTube submissions demonstrate the challenge of discussing the issue rationally.
The ostensible goals of the PRI are commendable (I don't know of anyone who is pro-human-rights-abuse or, shrill right-wing commentary notwithstanding, pro-abortion). However, It seems rather inefficient - one might even say disingenuous - to couch such efforts as population policy. If you wish to fight human rights abuses, then fight human rights abuses. If you wish to oppose abortion, then oppose abortion. Machinations make one's motives suspect. In fact, some have claimed that the de facto agenda of the PRI - whether intentional or not - is the suppression of woman's rights. This gives some indication of the passions that population issues invariably excite, just as the comments on the PRI YouTube submissions demonstrate the challenge of discussing the issue rationally.
curated content from YouTube
Links
Professor Bartlett's webpage on population growth may be found here.
The non-profit organization zero population growth works to educate the public about overpopulation. Please support their efforts.
The graphic designs used on this page are available on our store at zazzle.com. Your purchases help raise awareness of population issues.
Contact us at: neuralconcepts@gmail.com
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Copyright (c) 2010, Neural Concepts
The non-profit organization zero population growth works to educate the public about overpopulation. Please support their efforts.
The graphic designs used on this page are available on our store at zazzle.com. Your purchases help raise awareness of population issues.
Contact us at: neuralconcepts@gmail.com
--
Copyright (c) 2010, Neural Concepts
Learn More
Al Bartlett - Arithmetic, Population, and Energy
Here is the first part of Professor Bartlett's population lecture. You can find the remaining sections on YouTube
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World Population Growth
Video depicting the growth of world population throughout history which has been making the rounds on YouTube for some time. This version features commentary by Mike Hanauer of Zero Population Growth.
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Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?
- Al Bartlett
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cffutah
Oct 7, 2011 @ 8:55 am | delete
- very interesting lens, glad I browsed upon it this morning, gave you a 'thumbs up' too.
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grafixforacause
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- A good written lens on an important subject. Thumbs up and featured on Overpopulation, Religious Dogma, Politics and the Big Squeeze
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Sep 13, 2010 @ 10:36 pm | delete
- Excellent! Of course this is the problem. Adding the the difficulty of a solution is the fact that humans in general resist understanding and in general propose solutions to symptoms. I intend to construct my own lens on this topic -- perhaps a slightly different take will be helpful. Thanks again!
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