Teaching High School Students About the Election, Polls and Futures Markets

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Lesson Plan: Can a Futures Market Be More Accurate Than a Public-Opinion Poll?

If you're a high school teacher, the presidential election is a neat way to teach your students about the elections, public-opinion polls and futures markets.

Americans (not to mention people around the world) keep close tabs on the presidential election. As a result, we're bombarded by polling data: daily tracking polls... polls of undecided voters... polls of likely voters.

Sure, polling techniques are pretty sophisticated, but is there a better way to predict the winner? The Iowa Electronics Markets -- a simple futures market where people use their own money to predict the presidential winner -- seems to provide pretty accurate results.

You'll download a Civics and Economics lesson plan that helps you accomplish two things:

a) you'll introduce your students to an economic system; in this case, a futures market

b) you'll reinforce the importance of voting and civic engagement

Step 1: Download the Lesson Plan 

But Don't Use It Yet: We'll Need to Cover Some Basics

Download the "Can Election Futures Markets Be More Accurate Than Polls?" lesson plan:

Direct link (PDF, right-click to download)

This lesson plan is from the 'Focus: Understanding Economics in Civics and Government' book, which contains 20 lesson plans for teaching economics principles in high school civics and government classes.

During the lesson, you'll use data from the 2004 election to compare and contrast the accuracy of public-opinion polls and commodities markets. There is a reading activity for your students, as well as multiple choice and essay assessments.

Step 2: Helpful Background Information 

To Help You Teach The Lesson

a) The Presidential Election Is Important... For the United States and the World

We Americans take our presidential election seriously. And because the United States has so much influence in the world, other countries watch our election closely, too. With so much riding on the outcome, people here and abroad want to know who the next leader of the free world will be.

b) So, People Try to Predict the Winner

An entire cottage industry of polling organizations have sprung up to meet this need and try to reduce the uncertainty of presidential outcomes. Candidates use them to formulate strategy. Party loyalists use them to gauge how their candidate is doing. Undecided voters use them as a benchmark. News organizations use them to create news.

Popular polls for the 2008 Election include:

[Note: if you have access to a computer lab, you may want to integrate these websites into your instruction by having your students browse these sites before reading the handout]

Harris polling data and headlines

Gallup polling data and headlines

USA Today presidential poll tracker

RealClearPolitics poll averages

Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll

Reuters/Zogby index

ABC News/Washington Post

New York Times poll watch

CNN election tracker

You might notice: all these polls seem to have different results. Why?

c) Pollsters Face a Number of Challenges

It's just plain difficult to predict the outcome of the presidential election with any sort of accuracy. Pollsters need to find representative samples. They need to contact those samples, by phone, email or in person. And the sample sizes need to reflect the population as a whole. Plus, they need to create unbiased questions that generate honest answers.

d) Is a Market-based Approach More Accurate?

Sure, it sounds pretty simple... is it too simple?

For the 2004 election, a futures market, the Iowa Electronic Markets, produced very accurate results. In fact, it was as accurate as the two closest polls from the New York Times and CNN.

But the IEM didn't use one focus group, ask a single question or convene a single panel of undecided voters.

How did the IEM do it?

Step 3: Okay, You're Ready to Teach the Lesson 

Here Are Some Terms You Should Know

Incentives is the core concept of this lesson.

And here are a few others, for good measure: voluntary exchange, and supply and demand.

These are the economic concepts that your students will take away from this lesson plan.

Don't worry, all these terms are explained in the lesson plan. You can also download a handout of these terms, and more, for your students:

Terms and Concepts Handout (PDF, right-click to save)

Economics Video: Incentives 

Explains the economic concept of 'incentives'

Here is a video clip you can use to introduce your students to the role incentives play in predicting human behavior.

Economics Video: Incentives Matter

This video clip, from the Virtual Economics CD-ROM, explains the economic principle "incentives." More information on Virtual Economics is available at http://ve.ncee.net. Distributed by Tubemogul.

Runtime: 100
57 views
0 Comments:

curated content from YouTube

Step 4. Additional Online Lesson Plans that Combine Civics and Economics 

These Online Lesson Plans Help You Extend and Reinforce the Lesson Plan

Voting is a very important part of citizenship. Use these lessons to keep the civics love rolling:

The Economics of Voting: What Do You Mean, My Vote Doesn't Count? -- Explores the costs and benefits associated with voting in national elections.

The Economics of Voting -- Students try to answer the question: Why do so many voters stay away from the polls on Election Day?

The Mystery of the Voters Who Don't Vote -- Why don't more Americans vote?

Link Love 

Links Related to the Lesson Plan

A nifty little one-stop shop to the links from this lens
Can Election Futures Markets Be More Accurate Than Polls?
PDF of the lesson plan
Glossary of Terms
PDF of the terms and definitions your students should know; use as a handout
Incentives
definition of economic concept 'incentives'
Voluntary Exchange
definition of economic concept 'voluntary exchange'
Supply
definition of economic concept 'supply'
Demand
definition of economic concept 'demand'
The Economics of Voting: What Do You Mean, My Vote Doesn't Count?
additional online lesson plan on the economics of voting
The Economics of Voting
additional online lesson plan on the economics of voting
The Mystery of the Voters Who Don't Vote
additional online lesson plan on the economics of voting
More Civics Lesson Plans from EconEdLink.org
find more civics and government lesson plans at EconEdLink.org
Focus: Understanding Economics in Civics and Government
book that contains 20 lesson plans for teaching about the role of economics in civics and government
Iowa Electronic Markets
a futures market that predicts election outcomes
Wikipedia: Iowa Electronic Markets
wikipedia entry for Iowa Electronic Markets
Wikipedia: Election Stock Markets
learn more about election futures markets
Harris poll
polling data from Harris
Gallup poll
polling data from Gallup
USA Today poll
poll tracking data from USA Today
RealClearPolitics poll
polling data from Real Clear Politics
Rasmussen Reports poll
polling data from Rasmussen
Reuters/Zogby poll
polling data from Reuters and Zogby
ABC News/Washington Post
polling data from ABC News and Washington Post
New York Times
polling data from New York Times
CNN
polling data from CNN
American Civics: Understanding and Participating in Government
a lens on civics

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For a deeper understanding of Civics, StuMax has links to Civics sites and a focus on the Constitution and Bill of Rights at his lens, American Civics: Understanding and participating in Government

JoyfulPamela created the Constitution Lapbook to explain the Constitution, government, laws and choices

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