Teaching High School Students About the Election, Polls and Futures Markets

Download the "Can Election Futures Markets Be More Accurate Than Polls?" lesson plan:

Direct link (PDF, right-click to download)

This lesson plan is from the 'Focus: Understanding Economics in Civics and Government' book, which contains 20 lesson plans for teaching economics principles in high school civics and government classes.

During the lesson, you'll use data from the 2004 election to compare and contrast the accuracy of public-opinion polls and commodities markets. There is a reading activity for your students, as well as multiple choice and essay assessments.

a) The Presidential Election Is Important... For the United States and the World

We Americans take our presidential election seriously. And because the United States has so much influence in the world, other countries watch our election closely, too. With so much riding on the outcome, people here and abroad want to know who the next leader of the free world will be.

b) So, People Try to Predict the Winner

An entire cottage industry of polling organizations have sprung up to meet this need and try to reduce the uncertainty of presidential outcomes. Candidates use them to formulate strategy. Party loyalists use them to gauge how their candidate is doing. Undecided voters use them as a benchmark. News organizations use them to create news.

Popular polls for the 2008 Election include:

[Note: if you have access to a computer lab, you may want to integrate these websites into your instruction by having your students browse these sites before reading the handout]

Harris polling data and headlines

Gallup polling data and headlines

USA Today presidential poll tracker

RealClearPolitics poll averages

Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll

Reuters/Zogby index

ABC News/Washington Post

New York Times poll watch

CNN election tracker

You might notice: all these polls seem to have different results. Why?

c) Pollsters Face a Number of Challenges

It's just plain difficult to predict the outcome of the presidential election with any sort of accuracy. Pollsters need to find representative samples. They need to contact those samples, by phone, email or in person. And the sample sizes need to reflect the population as a whole. Plus, they need to create unbiased questions that generate honest answers.

d) Is a Market-based Approach More Accurate?

Sure, it sounds pretty simple... is it too simple?

For the 2004 election, a futures market, the Iowa Electronic Markets, produced very accurate results. In fact, it was as accurate as the two closest polls from the New York Times and CNN.

But the IEM didn't use one focus group, ask a single question or convene a single panel of undecided voters.

How did the IEM do it?

Incentives is the core concept of this lesson.

And here are a few others, for good measure: voluntary exchange, and supply and demand.

These are the economic concepts that your students will take away from this lesson plan.

Don't worry, all these terms are explained in the lesson plan. You can also download a handout of these terms, and more, for your students:

Terms and Concepts Handout (PDF, right-click to save)

Voting is a very important part of citizenship. Use these lessons to keep the civics love rolling:

The Economics of Voting: What Do You Mean, My Vote Doesn't Count? -- Explores the costs and benefits associated with voting in national elections.

The Economics of Voting -- Students try to answer the question: Why do so many voters stay away from the polls on Election Day?

The Mystery of the Voters Who Don't Vote -- Why don't more Americans vote?

For a deeper understanding of Civics, StuMax has links to Civics sites and a focus on the Constitution and Bill of Rights at his lens, American Civics: Understanding and participating in Government