The Great Game, Again: Russia, Georgia, and the Southern Thrust

In the 19th Century a primary goal of Russia's foreign policy was, through treaty and conquest, to gain access to a secure southern warm water port, to protect its energy supplies and trade routes.

This stage of the Great Game was immortalized by Rudyard Kipling, in his tales of the adventures of Kim. British strategy, to confound Russia at every turn, was fairly successful.

In the 20th Century the USSR continued the Tsarist's Southern policy by annexation and colonization of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Stalin (born in Georgia but an equal-opportunity ruthless dictator) attached Abkhazia to Georgia and split Ossetia between Georgia and Dagestan. The local inhabitants never accepted these arrangements. As the Soviet Union dissoved, separatist movements went to arms, resulting in a joint peace-keeping force in South Ossetia and sanctions against Abkhazia.

Apparent triggers of the current crisis were:
1) Russia canceled sanctions against Abkhazia;
2) Georgia acted against South Ossetia separatists.

Why?
The answer is easier in the South Ossetia case: I have no doubt that Saakashvili is a sincere and dedicated leader of his country. But he is both naive and heavy-handed (the same dangerous combination as George Bush). He naively believed that the West in general and the US in particular would support him. And why should he not? American "advisors?" were training the Georgian army; US client-state Israel was supplying those arms. He really fell for it.

Abkhazia is more difficult to explain. Since the Georgians completed the East-West road to link Abkhazia and Tiflis, it is more of a strategic asset (to the Russians). With the upcoming eastward relocation of the Black Sea fleet (its lease on Sebastopol ends in 2017), it makes sense to have at least friendly relations with the region to the South of the new base at Novorossiysk. Novorossiysk is also the terminal of one of the Baku pipelines. You don't want a hostile country too close to your pipelines. And pipelines may be at the root of this whole issue. The net effect of this crisis is a much-weakened Georgia, and interruption to the Western-focussed pipelines that skirt South of Russia.