Technical Mumbo-Jumbo vs Your Wallet
Statistics are boring, right? Numbers, percentages, averages, blah, blah, blah... YAWN... Who wants to think about that sort of thing?
Well, if you're paying for traffic to your site, you should be very wary of the statistics you are given for how many "hits" your site is getting. There are a lot of ways that the statistics can be wildly inaccurate, and you should be aware of these problems before spending your money (or time, or effort).
In the "early years" of the Web, before the dot com bubble, I wrote a paper about the validity of Web site hit counts, and a condensed version of that paper was published in 1997. (Starting out as an academic paper, it had a mouthful of big words for the title, but I'll not strain your eyes with that!) Surprisingly, despite many changes since the mid-90s, many of the problems I wrote about back then continue to exist today.
Photo credit: wax115 (Carlos Paes) / morgueFile.com
Well, if you're paying for traffic to your site, you should be very wary of the statistics you are given for how many "hits" your site is getting. There are a lot of ways that the statistics can be wildly inaccurate, and you should be aware of these problems before spending your money (or time, or effort).
In the "early years" of the Web, before the dot com bubble, I wrote a paper about the validity of Web site hit counts, and a condensed version of that paper was published in 1997. (Starting out as an academic paper, it had a mouthful of big words for the title, but I'll not strain your eyes with that!) Surprisingly, despite many changes since the mid-90s, many of the problems I wrote about back then continue to exist today.
Photo credit: wax115 (Carlos Paes) / morgueFile.com
An Overview of the Problem
- People share computers
- People share user accounts
- Any one person can use more than one computer, or more than one browser on a computer
- Any one person can have more than one user account
- Tracking "cookies" can be blocked and/or deleted
- People can turn off (disable) JavaScript, Flash, referring-page reporting, and other browser capabilities used for "tracking"
- People can configure their browser to block third-party-server images (known by silly names such as "Web bugs," "Web beacons," "transparent GIFs," "1-pixel GIFs," etc., even though none of those terms is really accurate)
- IP address sharing, using proxies (intentionally or otherwise), and caches can "hide" people or "disconnect" people from their actions
- As Ms. Karen reminded me (see below), "content syndication" -- meaning RSS feeds and that sort of thing -- and other duplication of your content on other sites or through other software can "hide" views
Oh, Statistics!
It Pays to Test. And Re-Test.
Although we've moved beyond the simple, and completely unreliable, basic Web hit counters of the mid-90s, there are still a lot of reasons to view hit counts with a solid dose of skepticism. If you're paying for hits, you should test your hit calculation methods, and compare multiple methods against each other. Even if you use a "traffic exchange" like EasyHits4U or FastFreeway and just use the free surfing credits, you're still paying with some attention and effort.Your best bet is to collect stats in multiple ways, then compare the different numbers. (Trust me, they will be different!) Then make an educated guess, based on an averages, about the actual level of traffic you're seeing. This isn't a one-time effort, either. In addition to keeping your eye out for new ways to collect statistics, you should take time at regular intervals re-test the ones you're already using, to see how they're performing (and drop any that seem to be too far off). How often you do this will depend, of course, on how important accuracy is to you.
Photo credit: Ronnie Bergeron (ronnieb) / morgueFile.com
An Excellent Example
What better example to use for showing how you can't assume that hit statistics are correct, than this Lens? In the first week that this Lens existed, a hit-tracking link redirector reported that seven people came to this Lens by way of that system. Guess how many hits Squidoo reported coming from that system? Just one. Which number is correct? Probably neither -- the redirector probably counted hits that were either duplicate or where the visitor never made it to this Lens (perhaps due to network problems). And Squidoo may have reported a hit from the redirector as a "direct" hit, if the visitor's browser did not report the referring page.
So the main point here is that somewhere between 1 and 7 people reached this Lens via the redirector, but I'll never know exactly how many.
So the main point here is that somewhere between 1 and 7 people reached this Lens via the redirector, but I'll never know exactly how many.
Related Reading
Hey buddy, got a dime?
All of my Lenses have donation modules to make it easy to support worthy causes. If you like this Lens, please consider a contribution. The charity I'm featuring for this Lens is shown below.
What do you think?
Feel free to share your thoughts on this topic.
submit
-
Reply
- Ms. Karen Ms. Karen Sep 18, 2008 @ 3:54 pm
- I have always wondered how accurate the counter is on my blog. Since I'm not blogging for a living, I've kind of given up caring about it. But I'm still curious who my readers are.
Also, feed readers can skew the numbers, especially if your readers don't have to visit your site to get all the information. That's one reason I have my site set up to only show a short paragraph, so if they want to read more, they must click and visit.
Oh, and I clicked over from twitter (in case it didn't show up as such.
by jppi_Stu
Founder of Johnny Pixel Productions, a Seattle-area video production company. (more)


