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How bad is it?
Recently, I heard a US Senator carrying on about how bad things are getting... In addition, I read a statistic that the American people reported the worst sentiment in 26 years... The news media also reports negative stories about the economy.
I began to ask myself, how bad is it really?
I've been living in the US since the early 60's.
That's a 40 plus years of living history.
Here is my perspective.
April, 2008
Latest update...
Recently, in July 2008, I took a trip to San Jose and Los Angeles. Here is what I found...
The air flights were packed. Restaurants were full and in some cases had to wait on line to be seated. Traffic is busy especially around LA. People were driving and few were car pooling. Hotels seems to be doing a brisk business. As I drove down from San Jose to LA, 380 miles, I see farm after farm and fruits growing on the trees. On the beaches, I see people enjoying the summer weather... At a museum, I see tourists every where. Where is the recession???
- The highest misery index was in 1980 - the last year of President Carter's administration.
Misery Index
Empirical data...
Another way is to look at our surroundings and observe what is going on.
Recently, I have traveled to Scottsdale, AZ, Richmond Va., Chicago, IL, Los Angeles, CA, Atlantic City, NJ, Washington DC suburb, and I'm located in Westchester County NY. Every where I go, I see construction projects, restaurants full of patrons, cars congested highways, planes full of passengers...
Well, you get the idea. From my perspective, the economy is doing quite well despite the negatives.
Here are some others...
- people are getting Flat screen TVs
- GPS is the latest gadgets of must haves
- Cell phones are everywhere
- Restaurants are packed
- Planes are full
- immigrants (legal and illegal) are rushing to come here
- Computers are every where
- Wi-Fi is available
- Hotels are full
What have we experienced in the past...
Compare and contrast what has gone on in the past.
- Double digit inflation in the early 80's.
- Gasoline line in the mid 70's.
- Stock market down turn - DotCom era.
- Clinton scandals - late 90's.
- Enron scandal in 2000.
My personal data...
Here are a few personal data...
- 401K balance - My retirement fund has increased in value by almost 80% over the last 5 years.
- House value: (over last 10 years)

- Net worth - My net worth has increased in value by 75% over the last 5 years.
- Taxes - My taxes are through the roof (property taxes and school taxes).
- Employment - My current salary has gone down by over 50% from 2002. I am now with a non-profit company but I am much more happier doing what I do...
What is not right?
I'm not claiming that things are rosy. Repeat, I'M NOT SAYING EVERYTHING IS OK...
Here are somethings that are definitely wrong with our current situation.
- Deficits spending - Our Congress continues to spend more than they take in...
- Trade deficit - We are loosing in the global market place. We don't make much of anything. Everything seems to be made in China... Our trade imbalance is hurting our standards of living.
- Oil dependence - We are buying and using too much imported oil especially from the Middle East.
- un-regulated Hedge funds - The financial industry is running wild with all kinds of speculations and profit from ill gotten gains.
- Falling dollar value - Our deficit spending is hurting the value of the dollar compared to the Euro or to gold.
- Air travel - Our air transportation needs a major overhaul. From pricing to routing to safety and security, they all needs attention.
- Illegal immigrants - We have a two tier working force driven by the large amount of illegals entering our country. It is hurting our over all infra-structure from medical costs to criminal justice to our school system.
- high property taxes - The local taxes are going up faster than inflation. Why?
- Social security - Our aging population (baby boomers) near retirement is causing our Social Security system a major turmoil. If something is not done in the next few years, they will go broke.
- Inflation - Our current rising inflation rate if un-checked will rob all of us our savings and our retirement. It is also hurting people on fixed income.
Conclusion
Here is my conclusion. By historical standards, we are experiencing a temporary mild recession. It is part of a natural cycle of economic activity. We have some challenges but they can be worked out without breaking us apart. We do need to "change" but how we choose to change is the big question.
Change can have two effects, positive or negative. Let's hope we choose to change for the better.
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BigJim
Nice lens, Jack. There's always many ways to look at the economic situation. Too bad more people don't consider it more closely instead of just believing what the media shoves down our throats. Most of these problems could be helped or solved by passing the Fair Tax.
Posted April 14, 2008
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JaguarJulie
Wow! What a truly amazing lens this is. You've got plenty of hard facts to help us make our decision. I say economic times are defined as a REPRESSION. AB !!
Posted April 14, 2008
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beeobrien
Jack, you are gonna have SOME opinions coming in on this one! Rising costs of health care, consumables, gasoline, college tuition.....I'm definitely struggling more than a few years ago.
Posted April 14, 2008
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jackclee
Adez7, I agree with you the government's numbers are incomplete. How about empirically speaking? We can all have our own opinions about what is going on around us. I'm curious to know if others see what I see. Thanks for checking in. -Jack
Posted April 13, 2008
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adez7
Hi Jack, The one thing that I see that that everyone seems to be overlooking is that the government is lying about the figures. Ever since they quit making GDP figures known to the public, there is no real way to measure the accurate amount of goods and services against the M1, M2, and M3 money supply. Without that data there is no real way to measure inflation other than to take the Gov's figures, which I do not. Great lens though. *****
Posted April 13, 2008
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