2011 Hurricane Predictions & 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast Accuracy
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Hurricane Weather Forecasting - 2010 and 2011 Hurricane Seasons
In April. Drs. Gray and Klotzbach (CSU) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) revise and publish the predictions for the coming year that they made in December. Those April revisions are revised again and republished at the very beginning of the season, in June. There is also a mid-season revision in August.
May and August hurricane forecasts are made by The National Hurricane Center.
On this page, you find links for FREE downloadable, printable Hurricane Tracking Charts, too!
page created 04/16/2011
last updated 05/28/2012
Contents at a Glance
Hurricane Season is June 1 - November 30
2011 Tropical Weather Outlook
(Above - a view of my back yard as the outer rain bands of Wilma began to hit. Oct, 2005)
In general, the various experts are calling for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. In addition, the CSU team's prediction also includes a greater than average chance - 72% - of a landfalling hurricane somewhere on the U.S.coast.
The forecasters say that their predictions are based on several factors, which I won't go into here, but please feel free to read the 62 page Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011, by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray in its entirety if you are interested. Some of the report is a little technical, but interesting nonetheless. If you'd just like to know how many storms they are predicting, see the chart below.
Season Forecasts Called for an Active 2011 Hurricane Season
And they were right
MORE INFORMATION
Beyond the chart are: a bit of basic information on the classification of tropical weather systems; links where you can get free printable hurricane tracking maps.
LOOKING BACK
You'll also find highlights from the two worst storms of 2010 - Hurricane Igor and Hurriane Tomas, whose names were retired.
2011 Hurricane Predictions
Updated to Include Mid-Season Forecasts
Named Storms
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
50 Yr AVERAGE*
9.6
5.9
2.3
CSU -APR
16
9
5
CSU -JUN
16
9
5
CSU -AUG
16
9
5
TSR -APR
14.2
7.5
3.6
TSR -JUNE
14.1
7.6
3.5
TSR -AUG
16.1
8.5
4.2
NHC -MAY
12-18
6-10
3-6
NHC -AUG
14-19
7-10
3-5
*50 year average based on years 1950-2000
LATEST forecasts are in bold.
2011 Season Recap
Named Storms : 19, Including
13 Tropical Storms
3 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
Countdown to Next Hurricane Season
Others Called for an Active 2011 Hurricane Season, Too.
Other forecasting organizations were in general agreement in their early forecasts that the hurricane season for 2011 would be an active one. Here are some more hurricane predictions for 2011 :Accuweather 'expects' 15 Named Storms and 8 Hurricanes, with 3 of those being intense or major hurricanes. They also say the U.S. coastal areas at greatest risk this year are the Carolinas, South Florida, and the Gulf Coast from western Louisiana through sough Texas.
Pennsylvania State University's Earth System Science Center is predicting 16.25 named storms, but give themselves "wiggle room" of +/- 4.
The UK MET OFFICE is predicting 10 to 17 named systems, with a "most likely" number of 13.
FREE Hurricane Tracking Maps
Free Printable Hurricane Tracking Maps
- Atlantic Basin Tracking Chart from NOAA
- In GIF format - black and white Atlantic Basin Hurricane Tracking Chart from NOAA
- ATLANTIC BASIN Hurricane Tracking Map
- Downloadable and Printable tracking Map in GIF format from Accuweather, a private forcast organization.
- CARIBBEAN Sea Hurricane Tracking Map
- Downloadable and Printable tracking Map in GIF format from Accuweather.
- GULF OF MEXICO Hurricane Tracking Map
- Downloadable and Printable tracking Map in GIF format from Accuweather.
- Atlantic Basin Hurrican Tracking Chart
- A beautiful Atlantic Basin color hurricane tracking chart (PDF form) from CFNews13 in Central Florida.
Hurricanes and Preparing for a Hurricane
books and video from Amazon
What's YOUR Prediction for the 2011 Hurricane Season?
Do you have a gut feeling about the coming hurricane season? If so, what is it? Or are you a student of meteorology, and have a forcast based on your own favorite factors?
Do you think the experts are 'on the money' with their 2011 Hurricane Season predictions? Or are they over-predicting by calling for an above average season? Will a major hurricane hit the continental US coastline? What area do you think is most at risk?
In short - WHAT DO YOU THINK will happen this year?
CruiseReady predicts:
I have to go with the experts, who know a lot more than I do. I think we'll have an above average season. I also think there's a good chance the US will be hit by a major. It's been several years since that happened and we're due!
Dean O Wash DC predicts:
Looks like My estimate was TOO high as well...There was ONE storm to hit the US. And that was just barely a Cat 1 - most damage was done by tropical storm winds and rain in the northeast. Global Warming alarmists are NOT happy.
Dean O WashDC predicts:
with 1 storm hitting the US in 3 years....I'll say we may have 2-3 storms make landfall... one of those beinf Cat 3 or higher. Trends are trends...global warming is nonsense when it comes to number and stregth of hurricanes.
LauraFincannon predicts:
I don't think it will be an overly active hurricane season this year, primarily because it's been rather quiet this year. Of course, my personal experience is that hurricane season doesn't usually -really- pick up until the end of August or beginning of September - so many hurricanes in my recollections fall around Labor Day Weekend.
Seth Whitaker predicts:
I just posted here recently and would like to downgrade the number of hurricanes from 8 to 6 that will make landfall on the eastern or southern United States. .
Seth Whitaker
Seth Whitaker predicts:
a less active hurricane season on the Atlantic coast of the United States. The bulk of the hurricane activity will be in the Carribean and affect areas from western Florida to Louisiana. My prediction is 8 hurricanes hitting landfall, with the worst hurricane slamming directly through eastern Florida. Interestingly enough, I expect the Carolina's to be spared of any major activity this 2011 hurricane season.
Weather Nut - Seth Whitaker
nealberk predicts:
What you need is just a 10 year, not a 50 year average. The last 10 years have been atypical- and a portent of what is to come.
vauldine predicts:
I predict a very calm season
beannie64 predicts:
I agree, I think we will have an above average season.
Tropical Cyclones
(Terminology)
A Tropical Cyclones can be (in order of magnitude) a Tropical DISTURBANCE, Tropical DEPRESSION, Tropical STORM, or a HURRICANE.Tropical Wave - (easterly wave) An area of disturbed weather with low pressure, but lacking organization, and moving from west to east in the Inter tropical Convergence Zone. May or may not develop into a tropical cyclone.
Tropical Disturbance -. An area of disturbed weather with some organized convection that maintains its identity for at least 24 hours.
Tropical Depression - Also an area of disturbed weather, but with more organized convection, but not to the point of having an eye feature, and having winds of less than 39 mph.
Tropical Storm - will usually have a closed surface center of circulation, around which stronger convection is loosely organized, and having sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph. They may have the rough beginnings of a cyclonic shape, but there is usually NOT a developed eye.
Hurricane - have sustained winds of at least 74 mph and a defined eye, or center, surrounded by an eye wall, in which the strongest winds and storms circulate around the center. The Eye is a 'clear' area of calm and low pressure. GENERALLY, the stronger the hurricane, the better defined the eye, and the lower the barometric pressure will be. Hurricanes are classified on the Saffir Simpson Scale according to their maximum sustained winds. (In other areas of the world, hurricanes are referred to as Cyclones or Typhoons)
Hurricane Category
Saffir Simpson Scale
Public domain ghraphic of hurricane structure from NOAA
A storm of Category 3 or Higher is classified as a MAJOR hurricane
Category 1 - Sustained winds: 74 to 95 mph. Damage level: Minimal.***
Category 2 - Sustained winds: 76 to 110 mph. Damage level: Moderate.
Category 3 - Sustained winds: 111 to 130 mph. Damage level: Extensive.
Category 4 - Sustained winds: 131 to 155 mph. Damage level: Extreme.
Category 5 - Sustained winds: over 156 mph. Damage level: Catastrophic.
*** Special note: Do NOT assume that 'minimal' damage means you simply won't be affected! Minimal damage can include (but may not be limited to) destruction of older mobile homes, serious damage to or loss of roofs of frame structures, water damage from window failure or window shattering from flying debris, power outages from downed tree limbs.
Any of these things might be considered minor - IF they happen to someone else! In fact, we had about $9,000.00 in repairs to our home after Fay- and she was 'only' a Tropical Storm!
What is a Subtropical Storm?
A subtropical system is something of a hybrid. It has some of the characteristics of a tropical slystem and some of the characteristics of an extratropical system.
In a subtropical storm, like a tropical system, there will be central convection, and for the system to be classified and receive a name, the sustained winds must be from 39 to 74 mph.
However, unlike a tropical storm, the core os "warmingn," rather than warm. Also, since their formation can occur over waters that are cooler than tropical systems need, they are more likely to form outside of the normal areas, and beyond the official dates of hurricane season.
I haven't actually studied this point, but I do seem to recollect that their appearance isn't always terribly well orgainzed, with a wider or more lopsided windfield.
However, it should be noted that, since subtropical systems fall somewhere in between the definitions of tropical and extratropical systems, they can transition either way in time.
NEW Hurricane Names in 2011
Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney
Which names were retired, and why?
Answers here:
Atlantic Basin 2011 Hurricane Names
What's Your Favorite Hurricane Related Site?
I'm Sharing Mine - Plese Share Yours, Too
Some great resources for finding that crucial information about, and more importantly, DURING hurricane season.
National Hurricane Center
THE SOURCE2 points
Tropical Weather : Weather Underground
Weather Underground provides weather information f more...1 point
Hurricane Watch
Hurricane Watch - Forum on CruiseLineFans.com that more...1 point
Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands
stormCARIB presents in depth information, weather more...0 points
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
Weather Underground provides weather information f more...0 points
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Default.aspx
The Authority in Expert Weather. Local, National a more...0 points
What Were the 2010 Hurricane Predictions?
And How Did They Do?
As you can see from this chart, they all predicted an above average season, using slightly different types of numeric conventions, but the NHC seems to have been right on the money with their ranges.
Named Storms
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
ACTUAL
19
12
5
CSU -APR
18
8
4
CSU -JUNE
18
10
5
CSU -AUG
18
10
5
TSR -APR
16.3
8.5
4.0
TSR -JUNE
17.7
9.5
4.4
TSR -AUG
12.8
9.7
4.5
NHC -MAY
14-23
8-14
3-7
NHC -AUG
14-20
8-12
4-6
Help Tell People About Hurricane Season!
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Hurricane Supplies
You can order these from Amazon today
Retired in 2010
Two names were retired from the list of hurricane names for 2010:
Igor and Tomas
(details below)
Hurricane Igor
Hurricane Tomas
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Just say hello, or tell about a personal hurricane experience.
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studyaids
Sep 22, 2011 @ 12:03 pm | delete
- A very fun and interesting lens indeed.
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Tipi
Sep 21, 2011 @ 1:28 pm | delete
- I'm back and I have a blessing in my pocket for the this awesome hurricane page.
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anilsaini
Sep 13, 2011 @ 6:05 am | delete
- nice presentation
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traveller27
Aug 21, 2011 @ 8:19 am | delete
- Very well done and very informative.
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LauraFincannon
Aug 21, 2011 @ 7:52 am | delete
- Interesting lens with useful links.
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About the Author
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by CruiseReady
Nothing fascinating here... just a cranky old lady who loves to cruise, watch the Indy 500, and follow tropical weather systems.
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An Important MUST Have
Weather Alert Radio
MIDLAND WR300 Weather Radio
Amazon Price: $40.50 (as of 06/01/2012)
Do you live in hurricane country? Or in an area prone to tornado outbreaks, or other severe weather? Then a NOAA Weather Alert Radio is a MUST HAVE item for you!
We have one from Midland that is several years old, and it has done a great job for us. If I needed a new one this season, I would definately purchase the newest Midland model.
My Husband's MUST Have
for Hurricane Season
O2 Cool Portable Fan, Battery Operated
Amazon Price: $8.90 (as of 06/01/2012)
Don't think this is essential? Try living with no A/C for a week, in August or September. (Or even for a couple of days with boarded up windows) While I worry about food, water, batteries, radios, and roof tarps, THIS is on the top of my husband's emergency supplies list!
