The Real Chances of Finding True Love

There are 7.5 billion people on the planet and growing. Some 2 Billion are under the age of 21. The idea that an individual cannot find at least one person to love/enjoy is preposterous. We are not alone, if anything we are overwhelmed by the amount of possible connections which leads to paralysis.

Now its gonna get technical. My assumptions are based off the following model. If we assume that the probability of "hitting it off" with any one person is 1 out of X amount of people, what are the odds of going thru life without finding someone?

To find out, take an average person. Assume that they live to 72, the approx developed world life expectancy. That is 72 * 365 = 26,280 days. Lets assume, conservatively, that the person meets one new person a day on average, so by the end of their life, this average individual has met 26,280 people. That means that most likely the number of individuals the person interacts with on a daily basis will rise over time.

Now lets calculate the probabilities of "NOT FINDING ANYONE" under certain assumptions.

If you're 18 years old, you have lived for 6570 days. You have met 6570 people. Assume you interact with 1% (~65) of them actively on a daily basis. This is not far fetched for high school. Assuming this person is a social outcast lets say their prob of hitting it off is 1/100,000. Then their prob of being alone @ 18 is non-trivial. Their daily prob of finding someone is 65*(1/100,000) = 0.0007 which is exceedingly tiny. This is why you all feel alone, but it is a temporal illusion. Your cumulative chance over your life of striking the love motherload is actually much higher.

So if you maintain this current level of social interaction for the rest of your life, what is the probability of being alone forever? Zero. Yes thats right, a big fat goose egg. Here's the calculation:

If this person is 18, then they have ~20,000 days left to live. They have a probability of 0.0007 for finding love on any given day. So the prob that they WON'T find love on any given day is 1 - 0.0007 = 0.9993.

In a coin flip, the prob of two heads in two tosses is 25% = 50% * 50%. Three heads in as many tosses tosses is 50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5% and so on. Think of your situation as an extremely lopsided coin that 9993/10000 comes out tails you lose. But you toss this coin in life A LOT.

Thus by the same logic the prob of NOT finding anyone is .9993 ^ 20,000 days left = ZERO. Thats it, all there is to it. All one has to do is keep trying, keep meeting people, and don't get into any spiraling "I'm not worth anybody's affection" type of event and you will be money.

(the carat ^ refers to the exponential, ps)

We all have our biases. Some people are late sleepers. Some take cream in their coffee. These tendencies are neither good nor bad. But in relationships, where people are opening themselves up to the rejection of another, biases in thinking can quickly exacerbate normal differences into life changing events. It is these moments that are make or break for love.