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Scenario

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Scenario Thinking is an attempt to recognize large-scale driving forces that will impact on how the future unfolds.

 
The objective is to examine possible future developments (that could impact on individuals, organizations or societies), in order to find the basis for current decisions to be beneficial no matter how the future unfolds. That is, Scenario Planning doesn't attempt to predict the unpredictable but rather to come up with ways of approaching the future that are robust enough to be helpful across the spectrum of futures that can be conceived by using what extrapolating from what is known about the current environment.

The philosophy is to proactively think and plan for future developments in stead of being a passive victim of change.

Scenario Planning Library

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Resources

Scenario Thinking.org
An "open community on scenario thinking where we can publish scenarios, reflect on the process, share resources in a democratic, and inclusive manner. ScenarioThinking.org is currently sponsored by the DTN (http://www.dtn.net), which since 1996 has been publishing scenarios online to grow the public discourse in this space."
Scenario Planning Resources
On this web page by Martin Börjesson you will find references and texts about scenario planning. Some are good for orientation while others are much deeper.
A Simple How To
This article in Wired Magazine is a very brief outline of the process of Scenario Planning including a simple example.
Plotting Scenarios
An Introduction to the Art and Process of Scenario Planning

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dhcsoul

I'm David HC Soul ... and for those of you old enough to remember no not THAT one ... although I have been known to answer to the name Hutch. I am an entrepreneur... more »

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