How vaccinations have helped YOU.

Ranked #18,180 in Healthy Living, #269,243 overall

It's the opposite of a lottery.

Vaccines are touted as saviors of the people, shots that make sure your kids don't catch a horrible, life-threatening disease. What they don't tell you is how the math actually works: when you apply a minute chance of saving each individual life to a population of hundreds of millions of people, the math says you'll save hundreds of thousands of people. But each individual person still only has a tiny, tiny chance of needing those vaccines to survive.

(This is a Bad Science lens.)
Important!

99.88628643517% of infants are not saved by vaccines!

The vaccination program the CDC has created does, in fact, save thousands of lives each year. But the chance that it will save your baby's life is infintesimally small.

Let's do some math!

Bear with me here...

The CDC vaccinates our children against 14 diseases before 15 months of age. We're all told that this is vitally important, and the math looks good when you look at the populace of the US as a whole. But let's look at each individual disease.

There is a lot of math below. Here's the breakdown: I'm going to give you the name of a disease, it's prevalence before the vaccine was introduced, it's prevalence today, and it's lethality. The percentage chance of the vaccine saving your infant's life lies somewhere between the product of the lethality and the pre-vaccine prevalence, and the product of the lethality and the post-vaccine prevalence. This is because, while being unvaccinated, your child is more vulnerable than a vaccinated child (more than the post-vaccine prevalence), the fact that the vaccine has removed a signifcant number of sources of the disease makes the disease much hard to catch (less than the pre-vaccine prevalence). There is good reason to believe that the smaller number is the more accurate result, but it's debatable, so I'm showing the entire range. For simplicity's sake, I'm rounding up to .01% in cases where a number would be smaller than that (many lethality ratings).

Haemophilius Influenzae type B (HIB)
Before the vaccine was introduced: 60 cases per 100,000 (.06% of the population caught this disease)
After the vaccine took effect: 1 case per 100,000 (.001% caught it).
Lethality: 6% of people who caught this disease died of it.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to HIB is 0006%-.0036%

Pneumococcus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 33 cases per 100,000 (.033%)
After the vaccine took effect: 13 per 100,000 (.013%)
Lethality: 14% fatal.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Pneumococcus is .00182%-.00462%

Meningococcus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 12 cases per 100,000 (.012%)
After the vaccine took effect: 5 cases per 100,000 (.005%)
Lethality: 14% fatal.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Meningococcus is .0007%-.00168%

Hepatitus B
Before the vaccine was introduced: 115 cases per 100,000 (.115%)
After the vaccine took effect: 20 per 100,000 (.02%)
Lethality: 25% fatal.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Hepatitus B is .005%-.02875%
It's worth pointing out that: This is an STD, transmitted exactly like AIDS. If you believe you can teach your child not to catch AIDS, this disease is already out of the picture.

Rotavirus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 13,000 cases in 100,000 (13%)
After the vaccine took effect: unknown -- the vaccine is too new to have statistically significant "after" numbers.
Lethality: .01% lethal.

That means: Not determinable due to the recent addtion of this vaccine.
It's worth pointing out that: Rotavirus is diarrhea, and nothing more. Its most extreme form is treatable with "hydration therapy" -- which is nothing more than giving your infant some sugary or salty water to rehydrate him or her.

Diphtheria
Before the vaccine was introduced: 200 per 100,000 (.2%)
After the vaccine took effect: .001 per 100,000 (.000001%)
Lethality: 10%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Diphtheria is .0000001%-.02%

Tetanus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 3.9 per 100,000 (.0039%)
After the vaccine took effect: .15 per 100,000 (.00015%)
Lethality: 20%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Tetanus is .00003%-.00078%

Pertussis
Before the vaccine was introduced: 100 per 100,000 (.1%)
After the vaccine took effect: 3.01 per 100,000 (.00301%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Pertussis is .0000301%-.001%

Poliio
Before the vaccine was introduced: 37 per 100,000 (.00037%)
After the vaccine took effect: .01 per 100,000 (.0001%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Polio (x) is .00001%-.000037%

Influenza
Before the vaccine was introduced: 16,000 per 100,000 (16%)
After the vaccine took effect: unknown -- the vaccine is too new to have statistically significant "after" numbers.
Lethality: .01%

That means: Not determinable due to the recent addtion of this vaccine.
It's worth pointing out that: Influenza is the flu, nothing more. The flu virus mutates so quickly that the pharmaceutical companies' ability to produce vaccine will never be able to 'catch up' and get the flu under control. Unlike every other vaccine, which was produced to bring a potentially lethal disease down to easily managable levels, the flu vaccine is literally a joke. It's a vaccine against last year's flu virus, which by it's nature has already mutated, rendering the vaccine almost useless.

Measles
Before the vaccine was introduced: 270 per 100,000 (.27%)
After the vaccine took effect: .15 per 100,000 (.00015%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Measles is .000015%-.027%

Mumps
Before the vaccine was introduced: 75 per 100,000 (.075%)
After the vaccine took effect: .09 per 100,000 (.00009%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Mumps is .000009%-.0075%
It's worth pointing out that: In 2006, an "epidemic" of mumps broke out in the midwest. 84% of the people who caught mumps during that "epidemic" were vaccinated.

Rubella
Before the vaccine was introduced: 58 per 100,000 (.058%)
After the vaccine took effect: .5 per 100,000 (.0005%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Rubella is .00005%-.0058%

Varicella (aka Chicken Pox)
Before the vaccine was introduced: 1,300 per 100,000 (1.3%)
After the vaccine took effect: 100 per 100,000 (.1%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Varicella is .001%-.013%

All right, so, we now have a range of lethality for every disease we vaccinate against. Here comes the fun part. I'm going to calculate, using the UPPER END (before any vaccinations began!) numbers, what the total percentage chance of your child dying from the total of all of these diseases is. For those of you not familiar with how statistics work, a very brief explanation: I'm going to multiply the chance of your child living despite the disease attempting to kill it (for example, with Varicella above, your child has, at the minimum, a 99.99999987% chance of living despite the disease's existence) by the chance of dying from each other disease in this list. Obviously, each multiplication is going to reduce the total percentage chance of survival a little bit -- let's see how far down it goes. Of course, I have to leave out Rotavirus and Influenza, but neither of them are meaningfully lethal in the First World regardless.

100%-.0036% = 99.9964% to avoid death by HIB
100%-.00462% = 99.99538% to avoid death by Pneumococcus
100%-.00168% = 99.99832% to avoid death by Meningococcus
100%-.02875% = 99.97125% to avoid death by Hepatitus B
(no data for Rotavirus)
100%-.02% = 99.98% to avoid death by Diphtheria
100%-.00078% = 99.99922% to avoid death by Tetanus
100%-.001% = 99.999% to avoid death by Pertussis
100%-.000037% = 99.999963% to avoid death by Polio
(no data for Influenza)
100%-.027% = 99.973% to avoid death by Measles
100%-.0075% = 99.9925% to avoid death by Mumps
100%-.0058% = 99.9942% to avoid death by Rubella
100%-.013% = 99.987% to avoid death by Varicella

And, the big number after all this, the grand product of all of these narrowly-avoided deaths is: 99.88628643517%

Which means that, with no vaccinations at all, your infant has a 0.11371356483% chance of dying to one of these horrible diseases. (Remember, this is using all of the upper-end numbers. The actual number is statistically significantly lower!)

Kind of makes you feel like the CDC is playing your fears like a fiddle, doesn' t it?

So, ask yourself: assuming you fear a diagnosis of "autistic" only 1% as much as you fear your child's early death...do you feel like there is at least an eleven percent chance that the autism-from-vaccines theory is correct? If you do, the math seems strongly to indicate that vaccinating your child is not in your best interest.

And if that weren't enough...

Check out the facts about autism and vaccines!

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“If there is a one-in-ten chance that vaccines cause autism, it's better not to vaccinate.”

Now learn what *else* vaccines can do to you!

The straight dope comes from right here.

Vaccine Risks Report

Check out what the blogosphere has to say on the issue

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Further arguing against the mercury-autism link is the observation that rates of autism have continued to increase even after thimerosal was dropped from vaccines more than a decade ago. Nonetheless, some researchers have hypothesized that autistic ...
And the celebrity science awards go to ...
With celebrities such as former Playboy model Jenny McCarthy pushing the discredited idea that vaccines cause autism, researchers and public health officials have worried about the resurgence of preventable childhood diseases. Actress Amanda Peet lent ...
Opportunity to Rollback Virginia's HPV Vaccine Mandate
Virginians, (and Virginians only please) take a couple of minutes to send an email to your State Senator expressing your support for HB1112 by clicking on the link below which will take you to the website of the Autism Action Network where you can ...

Are you going to vaccinate your kids?

Why or why not? This is an essay question. ;p

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  • Reply
    Shots Are Crap Feb 18, 2011 @ 1:35 am | delete
    I have vaccinated my kids in the past, but I no longer do so because, I have done some research and have came to the conclusion that shot don't do anything, and they are making our kids worst. Shots don't help us people so please do your research. LISTEN to real people's stories, not some know it all Doctor. Doctors will tell us anything and we just eat it all up tryin to be good parents I guess. Being a good parent is doing your research and thinking for your self.
  • Reply
    Kez Oct 18, 2010 @ 12:50 am | delete
    Just wondering where you get your info from? I am research about vaccines for my unborn child. I want to know as much as I can about it before I decide.
  • Reply
    Jeffry John Aug 28, 2010 @ 7:37 am | delete
    Awesome post! The information is spot on and you are correct, it is a total numbers game.
  • Reply
    ss834 Jun 1, 2009 @ 2:35 pm | delete
    My son is not vaccinated because ultimately I could never make peace with the idea of injecting this stuff into my kid. How do I feel about vaccination in general? I think it is a symptom of a silly human pursuit to obtain peace of mind and pretend we are doing the right things. If you *can* possibly prevent some diseases then people think we absolutely MUST do it. But really, when major outbreaks of disease have occurred it is often the new, never-before-seen diseases (in a given population) that wreak havoc-- not those that have already been through the novel, epidemic phase and have already scaled back. People act like if we stop vaccinating for polio, EVERY CHILD is going to die or become paralyzed.

    Honestly, I'm much more afraid of the car trip to visit the doctor than I am of the low risk that he'll contract and also become seriously ill from a "vaccine-preventable" disease.

by

Arananthi

I'm a first-time father, and I am very anti allopathic medicine due to my wife's health story. I love games, books, and truthiness. Check www.squidoo.... more »

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