Why Green Bay Will Win the NFC
What in the world could be going on that three people who follow the game so closely would pick a team one season removed from a 6-10 record to come back and advance to the Super Bowl the following season?
Well, for starters, the NFL is a parity ridden league. Thanks to our good friend Larry Ness, we know the turnover rate amongst playoff entrants from one season to the next is around 50%. That means roughly six of the 12 playoff teams from the previous year will not find themselves in the postseason the following year. Sure, you'll have your obvious choices for repeat appearances (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego), but you also need to do your homework and identify those teams most likely to fall off (Miami, Tennessee, Carolina). In addition, if you dig deep enough, you will be able to identify some teams that failed to make the playoffs in 2008 that will be Super Bowl contenders in 2009.
Everyone is picking New England, with the return of a healthy Tom Brady at QB, to make the leap. Because of this, the return on investment is very poor for those betting on a Patriots' return to glory. Therefore, we return to the subject at hand, the Green Bay Packers.
The stat you are most likely to hear quoted by Packers backers is that seven of last year's 10 losses came by four points or less, an NFL record. The prevailing theory amongst NFL bettors is that teams who suffer innumerable narrow defeats will see the "ball bounce the other way" the following season. If Green Bay won even three of those games a year ago, they would have been a 9-7 team.
Then, you have the fact that two years ago the Packers were a 13-3 SU team that found themselves hosting the NFC Title Game and they would have won that contest if not for a dumb interception thrown by Brett Favre in overtime against the Giants.
Favre is of course now gone and that brings us to Aaron Rodgers, who last season faced the tall task of filling the "old gunslinger's" shoes. You could point the finger at many individuals for the Pack's losing season, but Rodgers is not one of them. In his first full season as a starter, he threw for over 4000 yards and 28 touchdowns. It is believed by just about everyone that Rodgers will have an even better season in 2009 and you can count me in that group.
Then you have what we've already seen from Green Bay this year. During the preseason, Rodgers and the first-team offense were on the field for 13 possessions. Nine of those resulted in touchdowns and only one in a punt. The defense, which already featured one of the best secondaries in the league, has undergone a 3-4 transformation under the tutelage of Dom Capers, a scheme that has not been seen in this division since 1994.
Finally, you have the division foes. Chicago and Minnesota grabbed all the national attention in the offseason by bringing in marquee QB's Jay Cutler and Brett Favre. Rodgers is better than both, by the way. Cutler has no one to throw to in Chicago and we expect a "Jets-like" outcome for the Vikings with Favre at the helm. Detroit is of course awful and should be considered a non-factor.
There you have it! The Green Bay Packers will win the 2009 NFC Championship Game.
Alabama and Virginia Tech Open on ABC
The College Football season starts this weekend and the marquee game on the card has Alabama squaring off against Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome. The ABC team will be in Atlanta to kick off the 2009 Season.
This will be Nick Saban's third season in Tuscaloosa and so far so good. Last year the Tide rolled through the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record. It didn't end very well in the post season as the Crimson lost to Florida in the SEC Championship game 31-20, just missing covering the 11-point line. Alabama had some end of the season internal issues and laid an egg in the Sugar Bowl getting embarrassed by Utah 31-17 as lofty 10-point favorites.
Last year's Bama team was built on defense as they allowed only 14 points per game and allowed the fewest touchdowns in all of college football. They were nearly impossible to run the football on as they allowed only 2.7 yards per carry. Will the defense be as tough again this season? All indications are yes as the Tide returns eight of those defensive starters.
Alabama's offense was hot and cold last season and they have a lot of rebuilding to do. They return only four offensive starters and Saban is very worried about his offensive line. Last year, their big offensive line allowed the Tide to rush for 185 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. However, they lost three of those big guys up front and the jury is still out on whether the new guys will be able to control the line of scrimmage like they did last season.
The biggest question on offense is the quarterback position. The starter is Greg McElroy, who is a junior that saw little playing time last season. Saban and the Bama coaches like his ability but don't like his inexperience. The good news for Bama is that they have a stable of talented running backs. Look for McElroy to run a ball control offense, at least early on.
It's pretty much business as usual in Blacksburg as Coach Frank Beamer returns for his 23rd season. Last year Beamer took an inexperienced Hokies squad to a 10-4 season. If you look inside those numbers you'll find that Virginia Tech's four losses were by an average of 5.5 points per game with their worst loss a 30-20 defeat at Florida State. However, the Hokies are normally a pretty good team at the betting window but last season they disappointed the alumni with a 6-7 ATS record.
Virginia Tech has a number of hurdles to jump over in this big game against Bama. They lost their starting tailback to a knee injury a month ago and will be counting on inexperienced tailbacks to replace starter Darren Evans. Can a Tech offensive line which was very suspect last season contain an experienced and very talented Bama defensive front?
The Sportsbooks are backing the SEC over the ACC in this neutral field game as they have installed Alabama as 7-point favorites. Tech has been money burners against non-conference opponents over the past few years posting a 2-9 against the pointspread. Last year, Alabama opened up their season with another ACC team, Clemson. It wasn't much of a game as the Tide crushed the Tigers 34-10. The books had the line on that game way off as Alabama was a 4-point underdog. Bama's defense controlled the game not allowing Clemson to rush for a single yard, that's right the Tigers recorded no yards rushing. Can Virginia Tech restore some creditability for the ACC by staying with this powerful Alabama team?
The Vegas Experts, the nation's foremost sports handicapping site, has winning against the pointspread reports on this big ABC TV game and all of the games in this opening week of the College Football Season. Check them out at http://www.vegasexperts.com!
Two Dogs That Might Be Barking On Saturday
In the world of sports betting, everybody loves an underdog. When sports bettors wager on the dog and "take the points," they are assuring themselves of a winning bet as long as two of the possible three outcomes takes place against the pointspread. Either the underdog can lose the game and stay within the number, or even better they can take the game outright and make the sportsbooks look like fools. In other words, as long as the favorite does not put forth a better than expected performance, you are going to be in good shape.
College Football bettors are no different and with opening weekend of the 2009 season just days away everyone wants to know which team(s) will pull off a big upset on the first Saturday of the year. It was two years ago when FCS Appalachian State shocked the world and beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Last year saw a more "traditional" opening weekend upset when four-point underdog Alabama clobbered preseason ACC favorite Clemson in the Georgia Dome, 34-10.
Who might pull off the upset this year? Vegas Experts has identified a pair of dogs that just might be barking very loudly come September 3rd, 2009.
The once-proud Michigan football program has fallen on hard times. The "Maize and Blue" may have a mutiny on their hands as reportedly six current and former players anonymously went to the media to "tell on" second year head coach Rich Rodriguez for violations that include requiring more practice time per week than is allotted by NCAA guidelines. One look at the Wolverines' season last year reveals that this team should have spent more time on the practice field as they went just 3-9 SU (worst season ever in Ann Arbor) and were a horrible 0-6 at the betting window when favored.
Enter "in-state rival" Western Michigan, who comes into the Big House this weekend as double-digit underdogs. This MAC representative is much better than the Toledo team that came to Michigan last year and upset the Wolverines, 13-10, as 16-point pups. The Broncos feature a senior signal caller in Tim Hiller, who threw for 3725 yards and 36 touchdowns in '08. They went 9-4 SU last season and although they did not fare well in their bowl game, WMU did pull off a late season upset over another Big Ten team (Illinois) despite losing two WR's, a RB, TE and CB in that 23-17 ( 7) win.
The Broncos are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Big Ten opponents, including a win at Iowa in the 2007 season. The only problem may be only three returning starters on defense, but note that Michigan will be tinkering with as many as THREE different QB's under center in this game. With the 11th ranked passing attack in the nation, taking Western Michigan and the points is the way to go in our opinion.
With a schedule that is perceived to be much "softer" than recent years, everyone seems to be high on Charlie Weis and Notre Dame this year. However, that is going to lead to a lack of line value with the Fighting Irish all season long and Week One is no different as they welcome in a gimmicky Nevada team that will be getting as much as two touchdowns on the betting line.
The Wolfpack are projected to challenge perennial conference power Boise State for the WAC title this year and with 14 returning starters they might just have the horses to get the job done. They have one of the best backfields in the country, which ran for an average of 278 yards per game. Chris Ault's "Pistol Offense" is led by junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who is 6'6" and 215 lbs, but ran for 1,130 yards and 17 touchdowns to go along with 2,848 yards and a 22-7 TD-INT ratio in '08. Boise State HC Chris Peterson called Kaepernick "the most difficult player to defend" in the WAC. Take the points here as well.
The Vegas Experts, the nation's foremost sports handicapping site, has winning against the pointspread reports on this big ABC TV game and all of the games in this opening week of the College Football Season. Check them out at http://www.vegasexperts.com!
Mid American Conference West Division
Central Michigan Chippewas (8-5) - Much is expected out of a veteran group in Mount Pleasant as they return six offensive starters and ten defensive starters. Leading the offense will be four-year starting quarterback Dan LeFevour. LeFevour, who is one of the best quarterbacks in College Football led the Chippewas to MAC titles in his freshman and sophomore seasons. He will have his three favorite targets from a year ago in senior Bryan Anderson and juniors Kito Poblah and Antonio Brown. The defense returns the top 12 tacklers from last season. Bettors who went against CMU after a straight up loss last season won all four tries. The handicappers will be all over the Chipps this season.
Western Michigan Broncos (9-4) - Senior quarterback Tim Hiller headlines a very strong Broncos team as he passed for 3,725 yards while tossing 36 touchdowns. He shouldn't have a problem throwing the ball this season either as they return seven offensive starters. Running back Brandon West comes back this season for his senior year after a 1,000-plus season running the football. The Broncos will look to win a Bowl game this year after a 38-14 drubbing in the Texas Bowl by Rice.
Toledo Rockets (3-9) - Expectations are high for first-year coach Tim Beckman as the Rockets return 16 starters from last year's 3-9 club. Senior Aaron Opelt is in his third season as the Rockets QB. Opelt connected on nearly 60 percent of his passes and has his top target with 6'5" senior Stephen Williams back. Williams caught 71 passes for 781 yards and eight touchdowns. Toledo has a stiff non-conference schedule with the likes of Florida International, Purdue, Colorado and Ohio State.
Ball State Cardinals (12-2) - The Cardinals will welcome a new head coach in Stan Parrish. Parrish was the offensive coordinator the past three seasons. Ball State is the lone school not returning a quarterback in the MAC West as Nate Davis took his game from College to the NFL, but they still return 11 starters from a club that went 12-2 last year. Redshirt freshman Kelly Page will get the job after a year of watching one of the best quarterbacks in College Football. The cupboard isn't bare as the Cardinals have back 11 starters. Miquale Lewis returns in the backfield after rushing for nearly 1,800 yards and 22 touchdowns. Sophomore receiver Briggs Orsbon was Davis's favorite target lasts season as he caught 68 passes for 813 yards and five scores.
Northern Illinois Huskies (6-7) - Head coach Jerry Kill is entering his second season in DeKalb after he led the Huskies to a 6-7 record with an Independence Bowl appearance. Kill will have two QB's in Chandler Harnish and DeMarcus Grady who both played last season. Both are mobile QB's who need to work on their accuracy. Sophomore running back Me'co Brown made six starts last year as a true frosh. The Huskies will start their season in Madison to face the Wisconsin Badgers.
Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-9) - The Eagles return 18 starters in Ypsilanti for first-year head coach Ron English. English comes to the program from Louisville where he was the defensive coordinator for a season after a two-year stint as Michigan's defensive coordinator. The Eagles stunned the conference with a 56-52 win over Central Michigan in last year's finale where they were a 10-point home underdog. Quarterback Andy Schmitt returns for his fourth season under center following a strong junior season. He passed for 2,644 yards, 15 TD's and completed nearly 63 percent of his passes. Senior wide out Jacory Stone caught 88 passes last season for 943 yards. EMU's last bowl appearance was in 1987.
ACC Atlantic Division Preview
When Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College were all brought over from the Big East, the Atlantic Coast Conference was supposed to join the SEC and Big 12 as a true "super conference" in the world of College Football betting. Simply put, that has not happened and that's despite solid performances from both the Hokies and Eagles (Miami has been a huge disappointment). The league has struggled immensely in bowl games (6-12 SU last two years), but Virginia Tech did break through last January becoming the first ACC school to win a BCS bowl game since '99. This year could see a rebound, despite no team projected to be in the mix for a National Championship. They sent a record 10 teams to bowls last season, though for the second time in three years had no teams ranked in the top 10 at year's end.
The Atlantic Division appears to be the weaker of the conference's two divisions as only one (Florida State) of its six teams is ranked in either Top 25 poll. That being said, all six were in a bowl last year. Interestingly, the media's pick to win the division is Clemson. Even more interesting is that neither of those two schools are our pick.
Last year, NC State became the only team in the country to qualify for a bowl game despite not being favored in a single game. Thanks in large part to Freshman QB Russell Wilson, the Wolfpack covered each of its final seven regular season games, including winning the final four outright. With a healthy Wilson under center four home games to start the year (have 8 overall), NC State will avoid the slow start that hurt them last year and are our pick to win the ACC Atlantic.
Florida State has gone just 12-12 SU in conference play the last three years, but this appears to be Bobby Bowden's strongest team since the one that captured the '05 division crown. They have eight starters back on offense, including QB Ponder, but the schedule is tough with BYU, South Florida and Florida all on the non-conference slate and they draw North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Miami out of the Coastal.
Stop when you've heard this one before. People are picking Clemson to win the ACC Title. That hasn't happened since 1990! The Tigers were a complete disaster last season, starting out ranked in the Top 10, but HC Tommy Bowden was fired mid-way through the season. Despite losing their QB, top RB and top WR, the Tigers will actually be better in '09 and should start the year no worse than 6-2.
Wake Forest comes off back-to-back .500 seasons in the ACC for the first time since 1953 and should make it three in a row with senior QB Riley Skinner returning. Defense is a major issue, however, with the five top tacklers (four of them NFL draft choices) all gone. Like many of the ACC teams, the Demon Deacons look like a 7-win team that will make a fringe bowl.
Boston College is going through its third coaching change in four years, but at least this time it's former DC Frank Spaziani (10 years w/ program) taking over the reigns. The Eagles' 30-11 SU record is the best of any Atlantic team over the last three years, but we are unsure if they can make it to an 11th straight bowl game (eight game bowl win streak snapped last year).
It looks like it's going to be a tough year at Maryland where HC Ralph Friedgen has had three losing seasons in the last five years. RB Da'Rel Scott is clearly the star of the offense, but with just 56% of last year's lettermen returning (lowest number for a non-service academy in the country), there just isn't much around him.
ACC Coastal Division Preview
Unlike the Atlantic Division, there does appear to be a clear cut favorite in the Coastal with Virginia Tech leading a total of three ranked teams amongst this group. While the Hokies are going to be everyone's preseason pick, we are more intrigued by what is going on down in Atlanta and Chapel Hill with Paul Johnson and Butch Davis as both Georgia Tech and North Carolina appear poised for breakthrough seasons.
Virginia Tech will start the season in the same manner that last year's preseason ACC favorite, Clemson, did by playing Alabama in Atlanta. For the Hokies' sake, they hope the results are a bit better than a 34-10 drubbing. This actually looks like a much better team than the one that won the league title last year (had just 10 returning starters). The 2008 team benefited from a 14 TO margin and was just fifth in the ACC at 34.0 YPG. Alabama, Nebraska and East Carolina is a brutal non-conference schedule with two of those games away from Blacksburg, but VT should post its sixth straight double-digit win season.
What an incredible debut it was for Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech in 2008. Bringing in the complex triple-option offense, few expected a nine win season from the Yellow Jackets, yet that is exactly what they delivered. They were a league best 68.1 YPG, despite just nine returning starters on both sides of the ball. They have the most returning starters (18) in the entire ACC and we would not be surprised at all to see this team win the conference in just Johnson's second season.
We are also high on North Carolina, who could have been much better than last year's 8-5 finish if not for injuries at the QB position, which certainly cost them the game vs. Virginia Tech and thus the division title. HC Davis has had three straight great recruiting classes and this appears to be his best team yet. They have two FBS teams on the non-conference schedule Virginia at home, so anything less than a 5-1 SU start is unacceptable. Note that UNC had lost 20 straight road games outside of the Tar Heel State prior to last year when they won their first two. It would not surprise us to see a three-team tie atop the division standings.
Some feel that Randy Shannon has the most talented team in the league at Miami this year, but the schedule is so brutal that it may not reflect in the final ACC standings. They open the year with three tough league games (at FSU, G Tech, at Virginia Tech), then must host Oklahoma, which means a 1-3 SU start is likely. Note that Shannon has yet to beat a Top Ten team during his tenure.
Virginia and Duke were the two ACC teams not to make a bowl game last season. They enter '09 again as the two weakest teams in the league with each returning only 11 starters. UVA started the year miserably last year, but HC Al Groh rallied to lead the team to wins in four of its final seven games and the Cavs actually outgained ACC opponents (barely). Duke blew possibly its best shot at bowl eligibility in over a decade and despite two FBS opponents on this year's slate will not end a 15 year bowl drought.
Key SEC Betting Angles
- Team who has rushed for more yards has won 17 of the last 19 meetings between Florida and Tennessee
- Florida has lost to a SEC West team every year since '99
- Florida is 11-1 SU vs. UGA, Tenn and Florida State under HC Meyer
- Urban Meyer is 26-3 SU off a bye week.
- Georgia is 10-2 SU off a bye, but will play Florida this year (3-16 SU L19 meetings)
- Georgia has won eight straight openers (will be underdog vs. OK St this year)
- Visitor has won 4 of 6 between Georgia & Tennessee by an average of 16 PPG
- Tennessee is 5-1 SU off a bye (will play Alabama this year)
- Tennessee's 24 game win streak over Kentucky is the longest of any rivalry in the Nation.
- South Carolina has won nine straight openers by 18 PPG
- South Carolina has held Georgia to 1 offensive TD in eight quarters
- South Carolina is 3-14 SU prior to a bye week.
- Vanderbilt is 6-23 SU in SEC road games.
- Kentucky is 0-16 SU all time vs. Steve Spurrier
- Ole Miss has lost 13 of 15 to Alabama, but the last four have come by an average of 4 PPG
- Ole Miss is 2-14 SU in SEC openers, including five straight losses.
- Alabama has won 17 straight SEC openers.
- LSU is 33-0 SU vs. the Sun Belt with an avg MOV of 42 PPG
- LSU is 21-1 SU in night games
- Arkansas is just 3-10 SU off a bye week.
- The road team is 1-8 SU L9 in Auburn vs. LSU games. Last five have been decided by 5 PPG.
- Auburn is 8-0 SU the week following LSU game
- Mississippi State has lost eight straight home conf openers, scoring two points total in the prev 3.
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Here are the Key Betting Angles to make note of for the upcoming Big 12 season.
- Texas is 28-6 L34 November games, including 12-4 on the road. They have won nine straight season openers by an average of 43 PPG.
- Oklahoma is 9-2 vs. BCS non-conf teams with an avg margin of victory of 17 PPG. They have won 24 straight league home games by an average of 28 PPG. They are 8-1 the week before playing Texas with an average margin of victory of 25 PPG.
- Oklahoma State has won 15 straight non-conf home games by an avg of 33 PPG. They are just 2-21 SU all-time vs. Texas (1-12 since joining Big 12) and 17-79-7 all-time vs. Oklahoma (most lopsided in-state rivalry in nation).
- Baylor is 12-3 the week prior to a bye with an avg margin of victory by 8 PPG. They have lost 18 straight vs. ranked opponents. The Bears are an astounding 2-50 SU in league road games, but both wins have come in the L4 years.
- Texas Tech has beaten Baylor 13 straight years by an average of 28 PPG. The last seven meetings with Texas have averaged an incredible 78 PPG with the fewest points scored being 66 in '06.
- Texas A&M is 14-4 SU in home conference openers. The visitor has lost 4 straight by an avg of 10 PPG in the A&M-Colorado series.
- Nebraska is 6-0 SU vs. the SBC with an avg margin of victory of 38 PPG. They have also lost nine straight to ranked opponents.
- Kansas is just 2-10 L12 road openers. They are just 7-22 in Big 12 road games, but 5-2 L7. Since joining the Big 12, they are 0-7 vs. Texas with the avg loss coming by 30 PPG.
- Colorado has seen the L7 meetings with Colorado State decided by total of 46 points, despite LY's 21pt win. The home team has won three straight in the CU-Nebraska head-to-head series.
- Kansas State is 12-3 since '94 vs. Iowa State with an avg margin of victory coming by 27 PPG. They are 4-16 SU L5 yrs in conference road games with avg loss coming by 11 PPG.
- Missouri is 10-2 in home openers with avg MOV by 25 PPG. They are 12-2 L14 Big 12 home games with avg MOV by 17 PPG.
- Iowa State has beaten Iowa 7 of L11 years and only 3 of the previous 15 meetings have been decided by less than a touchdown. The visitor is just 4-9 in ISU vs. Kansas games.
Big 12 Betting Preview
Now that we've provided you a list of our top 16 teams for the upcoming College Football betting season, we thought it would be a good time to go a little more in depth conference by conference and talk about some of the key betting angles in each league and what to look for. Last week, we previewed the top conference in the land. This week our focus is on another power conference, the Big 12.
Clearly the key game on the conference betting slate is the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma on Oct 17, which shapes up as a sort of de facto BCS Semifinal Game. Prevailing thought has the winner of this game taking the Big 12 title & playing for the National Title on January 7th. However, keep in mind that last year Texas beat Oklahoma in Dallas, but it was the Sooners that played (and lost to) against Florida in Glendale thanks to a bizarre tiebreaking procedure (Texas Tech also only had one loss). If you're looking for this year's Texas Tech, Oklahoma State could prove to be the proverbial "fly in the ointment."
Throughout the 2008 College Football regular season, the big discussion at water coolers across the country was which conference was superior: SEC or Big 12. We got our answer loud and clear in the New Year as Oklahoma and Texas Tech were each throttled in their respective bowl games by Florida and Ole Miss. Remember that points will never be at a premium in this league. Here is our look at both the North and South Divisions.
The Big 12 South could be the strongest division in the land. Three of its six teams are ranked in the Top 11 of the initial Coaches Poll, which was released two weeks ago. This puts the South on par with the SEC West, which had three teams ranked in the Top 10. However, Texas (#2) and Oklahoma (#3) are ranked higher than any team in the SEC West. Obviously, the RRR will go a long way in determining the division champ. Keep in mind that every meeting in this series since '98 has been decided by double-digits and last year OU led 21-10 before MLB Reynolds was lost to injury. Texas had just -3 RY before the injury and once again the running game could be the Longhorns albatross. For Oklahoma, the only weak spot could be the offensive line, where four starters must be replaced. Texas has the fewest letterman lost (12) in the conference while Oklahoma is the only team in the country that returns two 1,000 yard rushers.
Do not discount the Cowboys of Oklahoma State. Mike Gundy's team boasts perhaps the best trio of skill players in the country in QB Robinson, RB Hunter and WR Bryant. OSU can make a major statement in the season opener when they host Georgia in a big non-conference showdown. After OK St, there is a big drop off in talent with Texas Tech certainly taking a hit with the defection of QB Harrell and WR Crabtree. Keep in mind, however, that the Red Raiders are the ONLY team in Big 12 history to post a winning season every year since the league was formed. Baylor has a lot of upside with QB Robert Griffin and 15 other returning starters (tied for most in league). The Bears have finished out of the Big 12 South basement just twice in history, but should finish 4th this year. Texas A&M, a once proud program, must improve a stop unit that allowed 37.4 PPG LY, or it will be a long season in College Station.
The Big 12 North is a real hodge podge with Kansas coming in as the media's pick to win the division, but the Jayhawks face a murderous schedule that includes just three league home games and draw Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech out of the South. Our pick is Nebraska, despite just 13 returning starters and the fact that the Huskers are one of just two BCS schools (out of 65) that has not beaten a Top 19 team since '01 (Duke is the other). We love HC Bo Pelini that much. Dan Hawkins' job might be on the line this year in Boulder and we like Colorado to post its first winning year since '05. Kansas State went "back to the future" when they lured program savior Bill Snyder (coached team from '89-'05) out of retirement. The Wildcats have a favorable schedule, but Snyder is now 70 years old. Missouri, like Texas Tech in the South, figures to take a major hit as they lost QB Daniel, their top three WR's and seven all conference players on defense. Iowa State was winless in conference play last year and with a new HC should once again be the worst team in the league.
Once upon a time, the Big 10 ruled the college football universe. However, that time was over a decade ago. While defenders of this league will quickly point to a 22-17 SU regular season mark vs. other BCS teams in'08, the fact of the matter is that Big 10 teams have combined to go just 9-20 SU in bowl games since '05, including a horrific 1-6 record last year. Ohio State lost its third straight BCS Bowl game (although in less humbling fashion) while Penn State was trounced in the Rose Bowl by USC. Those two teams again enter '09 as the clear choices to reign supreme in the conference this year and after that it's anyone's guess.
Although Ohio State enters the year as the media's choice to win the league, our pick is on Penn State, who despite returning just nine starters, have a much more manageable schedule, including hosting the Buckeyes on 11/7 (beat OSU in Columbus 13-6 LY). There has been a lot of talk this summer about a potential unbeaten season from the Nittany Lions, who draw four cupcake non-conference opponents all at home. We point out that PSU was an incredible 124.2 YPG in Big 10 Play last year, which is 70 yards better than Ohio St. Joe Pa's team opened last year with four non-conference wins by an avg of 42.75 PPG, including a 45-14 win over Oregon State, who 2.5 wks later would go on to defeat USC. Their only loss (Iowa) came in a game which they led 23-14 in the 4Q and were victimized by a pass interference call on a 3rd and 15 late. This year, they get the Hawkeyes at home in the conference opener for both. If Penn State is going to lose this year, we feel it will come the following week at Illinois as the Nittany Lions are just 3-6 L9 Big 10 road openers and lost their last visit to Champaign.
Ohio State plays a much tougher non-conference slate than PSU, including a home date with USC in Week 2 that will serve as a barometer for both teams. The game sets up well for the Buckeyes as the Trojans will be starting an inexperienced QB in a hostile environment. Other than the Penn State game, OSU will be favored in every game and is a contender for a 4th straight BCS Bowl.
Despite suffering a major loss in RB Shonn Greene, Iowa should once again be a contender and potentially play in a New Year's Day bowl. However, they must travel to both Penn State and Ohio State. They have 14 returning starters and their four losses LY came by a combined 12 points, so look out. Illinois is the darkhorse of the league, although they open up conference play with the two main contenders. After that, it could be clear sailing with the exception of a weekday non-conference game with Big East champ Cincinnati towards the end of the season. The Illini were 85 YPG in conf play last year, a number topped by only Penn State.
After that, the rest of the Big 10 teams are mediocre at best. Michigan State was outgained in league play LY despite a 6-2 record and got crushed by Penn St/Ohio State by a combined 69 points. This year, they avoid the Buckeyes, have 15 ret starters and could be Dantonio's best team yet. Meanwhile, things could not go worse for in-state rival Michigan than they did in Rich Rodriguez's first year in Ann Arbor, where the Wolverines went 3-9 SU and missed making a bowl game for the first time in 33 seasons. The Maize and Blue will improve simply based on the fact that they have a year of Rich-Rod's system under their belt and a QB that fits the system. Wisconsin avoids Penn State and could be 5-0 heading into the Ohio State game. Minnesota always starts strong and finishes poorly. This year's schedule is difficult with Air Force and Cal on the non-conference slate and three of the final six games are road trips to Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa. Northwestern went unbeaten in non-conf play LY for the first time since '63 and avoid both Michigan and Ohio State this year. Purdue begins the post Joe Tiller era in West Lafayette, so who knows what to expect. As always, we know what to expect from Indiana and that's a last place finish.
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Key Big Ten Betting Trends
Key ACC Betting Trends
- NC State went 9-2 ATS last regular season and will get a shot at avenging one of those losses in Wk 1 vs. South Carolina. Prior to LY's loss, the Wolfpack had beaten the Gamecocks four straight times - all by double digits. They have not won at Boston College since 1937. They have lost five straight to Clemson.
- Florida State lost to Georgia Tech for the first time since 1975 last year and has lost to Wake Forest three straight times after going 21-2-1 prior. They are 14-1-1 all-time vs. North Carolina. The visitor is 4-0 SU all-time in ACC meetings between FSU and Boston College.
- Clemson beat Boston College for the 1st time since '58 (0-6 previous) LY. They are 14-1 SU hosting non-conf opponents (play TCU this year) and the visitor has won four straight meetings when the Tigers play Maryland. The home team is 7-2 SU in Clemson vs. Florida State games.
- Wake Forest is just 2-12 SU but beat Baylor LY (open the season against them again this year). In nine home games vs. non-conf BCS teams, seven have been decided by a touchdown or less. They have beaten Duke nine straight times and scored 41+ in all four road games.
- Boston College is 0 for 7 against Butch Davis' coached teams all-time. Home team is 4-1 SU in the last five WF/BC games. BC/Maryland winner has prevailed by an average of 12 PPG.
- Maryland is just 6-16 in road openers and must travel to Cal this year. Terps are 5-1 SU all-time vs. Sun Belt with avg win coming by 13 PPG. They have beaten Duke 5 straight times by an avg of 27 PPG. They are 6-2 SU vs. ranked opponents the last two years.
- Virginia Tech is 11-2 SU all-time in season openers with both losses coming on a neutral site. They have shutout Duke in three of the last six meetings. They are 5-0 SU vs. North Carolina since joining the ACC. The Hokies have won 22 straight non-conf home games (vs. non-BCS) by an avg of 33 PPG.
- Georgia Tech has seen 10 of the last 13 meetings with Clemson decided by five points or less. They are 9-2 SU in 11 road openers. Visitor is 2-12 SU in GT/Virginia series. They are 10-3 SU vs. Miami.
- North Carolina was 5-14 in non-conf play before last year (4-1). They are also 4-12 SU in conference road games. They will play their first ever Thursday night home game on 10/22 vs. Florida State and the last four wins over Duke have come by an average of just 5 PPG.
- Miami (FL) has lost four straight to Georgia Tech and have scored more than 16 PPG just once vs. VT since '03. The Hurricanes are at 8-1 SU in home non-conf games with avg MOV coming by 21 PPG. The visitor is 1-8 SU in Miami/North Carolina games.
- Virginia is only 4-3 SU vs. MWC and 3-6 SU vs. Conference USA. Visitor is 2-7 in UVA/UNC games. The Cavaliers are just 4-13 SU vs. Big Ten opponents. They are 8-36-1 vs. Clemson all-time, including 29 straight losses to begin the series. They have lost 5 straight and 9 of 10 to Virginia Tech.
- Duke has lost 10 straight road openers by 14 PPG and has lost its last 20 road ACC games overall. They are 1-13 vs. Georgia Tech.
Following are Key Big Ten Betting Trends
- Penn State is just 1-6 SU vs. Iowa since 2000 and just 3-6 SU in Big 10 road openers (play Illinois this year). They are also just 2-9 SU in the 2nd of BB road games.
- Ohio State is 46-1 SU at home vs. non-conference opponents. They have either lost or gone to OT in five of the last eight years the week prior to Michigan, whom they have beaten in seven of eight including a series record five straight.
- Illinois is just 2-10 SU on the road vs. non-conf BCS teams. The visitor has won eight of nine between the Illini and Ohio State. They have not beaten Michigan at home since 1983.
- Iowa is 15-1 SU in non-conference home games, but the visitor has lost five straight in their in-state rivalry with Iowa State. In four of the last seven meetings with Penn State, the underdog has won outright.
- Michigan State: Home team has dropped L4 head-to-head vs. Northwestern with the visitor averaging 44 PPG. The visitor has dropped four straight head-to-head vs. Wisconsin.
- Michigan has lost a school record five straight to Ohio State, but has beaten Illinois nine straight times on the road. Home team is 8-2 SU when they play Notre Dame.
- Wisconsin is the only Big Ten school to beat Ohio State three different times this decade. Home team has won five straight in Michigan series and four straight in Northwestern series.
- Minnesota is 18-3 SU in non-conf home games. They have lost seven straight at Wisconsin and overall are just 5-16 L21 conference road games. Gophers are just 1-7 SU vs. Iowa since '01.
- Northwestern: Last 10 games vs. Illinois have been decided by an avg of 16 PPG with none closer than 6 points. This is the first time since '98 they will not close Big 10 Play vs. the Illini.
- Purdue is 11-1 SU in home openers with avg MOV by 25 PPG. They have not beaten Michigan on the road since 1966. The winner of Purdue/Illinois has scored 37 or more points each of the last three meetings.
NFL Week 4 Preview (Part 1)
Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week's games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures and we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays. Be sure not to miss our 2nd 25* Division Game of the Year this Sunday!
Oakland at Houston - The Texans have been a difficult team to figure out in '09, with both losses coming as home favorites and the lone win coming as a road underdog. Meanwhile, after a brief two-week glimmer of hope, the Raiders are back to their horrific ways. Last week's 23-3 home loss to Denver was further proof that JaMarcus Russell is not an NFL-ready QB, and snapped a four-game ATS win streak, the franchise's longest since '02. Oakland's only win thus far came in a game they were outgained 409-168. This has been a bizarre head-to-head series with the underdog winning and covering all four meetings.
Tennessee at Jacksonville - The Titans have already lost as many games this regular season as they did all of last regular season, yet find themselves a road favorite for this division game with Jacksonville. They have lost five games in a row overall (1-4 ATS) and three straight division games (0-3 ATS). The Jags were fortunate to upend Houston last week, recovering a fumble on the potential game-tying TD in the waning minutes for their first win of the year. It would be tough to see Tennessee start 0-4 SU as they are 8-4 SU/ATS at Jacksonville since 1998 and the Jaguars are 2-7 SU and 1-8 their last nine as hosts.
Baltimore at New England - This is the best game on the AFC slate in Week 4 with the 3-time Super Bowl Champions hosting the team that looks like the conference's best through the first three weeks. The Ravens have covered all three games this season and are now 17-5 ATS under HC John Harbaugh. They have outscored 2009 opponents by an average of 16.7 PPG, covering two double-digit spreads. New England just made a statement win at home, knocking off the previously unbeaten Falcons, and resembled the Patriots of old in the 2nd half, outscoring Atlanta 13-0 after the break. They have beaten Baltimore four straight times.
Cincinnati at Cleveland - We could certainly make the case for the Browns being the NFL's worst team as they have been outscored by 25.3 PPG in three SU/ATS losses. They are now 0-8-1 ATS during a nine-game losing streak that dates back to 2008 and have scored just 32 points in four home games during that stretch. Incredibly, the Cleveland offense has scored just ONE offensive TD since Week 11 of last season, using four different QB's. HC Mangini is expected to name the starter on Wednesday. The Bengals are a fluke play away from 3-0 and are now being talked about as a potential sleeper in the AFC. They are looking for BB road wins for the first time since '06.
Fetching RSS feed... please stand by2009 SEC Betting Preview
For the third straight season, the Southeast Conference produced the BCS National Champion. To illustrate how deep this conference is, Georgia entered the year as the consensus #1 team in the country, but it was division mate Florida winning the title for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Gators enter this year as everyone's choice to win the National Championship. They have 18 returning starters, including all 11 on defense (return 22 top tacklers). Urban Meyer's team will certainly be favored in every game, but by how much as they are likely to produce the first unbeaten regular season in CFB by a BCS team since 2006 (Ohio State). Expectations will clearly be down in Athens for Mark Richt in Georgia, but that is when this HC seems to be at his best. In nine years, he has a 30-4 SU road record. That will be put to the test this season with off campus ventures vs. Oklahoma State, Florida and Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs look like a lock to finish second. Tennessee is one of three SEC schools that made a coaching change in the offseason and like his two contemporaries, Lane Kiffin has no previous college head coaching experience. Perhaps it was that inexperience that led to a tumultous offseason, which in turn has painted a huge bullseye on Kiffin's back. Look for the Vols to take some big lumps in high profile SEC games this year. For the first time in his coaching career, Steve Spurrier has become irrelevant at South Carolina. His Gamecocks have done no better than 8-5 and no worse than 6-7 in his four year stay at Columbia. Kiffin's arrival may actually draw some heat away from the Ol' Ball Coach. After making their first bowl in 26 seasons last year, don't be surprised if Vanderbilt suprises again and finishes higher than both Tennessee and South Carolina. The Commies have lost their last six Homecoming games though. Coming off three straight bowl appearances, Kentucky looks like a lock for last place in the East.
The SEC West enters the year as the stronger of the two divisions, which is not usually the case. Six of the last nine years have seen a 1st or 2nd year HC win the division title and after seeing Nick Saban get the job done last year in Tuscaloosa, we like Houston Nutt's betting odds of doing the same this year in Oxford with Ole Miss, despite Alabama being the media's choice. The Oct 10 date between the Rebels and the Crimson Tide will likely decide how the West is won and the winner of that game has a great shot at a perfect 12-0 regular season. LSU is likely to be the 4th SEC team ranked in the top ten at the start of the year, but a daunting schedule will probably have them out of there sooner than later. They must play Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss all on the road and host Florida. Arkansas, under 2nd year HC Bobby Petrino, could be the conference darkhorse. They have beaten LSU each of the last two years. 2008 was a disaster for Auburn, who fired Tommy Tuberville and to little fan fare in steps Gene Chizik, who will return the Tigers to more traditional Auburn football. Tigers fans hope that means winning as they come off their first losing season since '99 as the spread offense and OC Franklin were both a disaster. Winning more will be tough in this deep division, however. Mississippi State is clearly the worst team in the SEC and is a threat to "run the table in reverse"
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- 2009 College Football Top 16
- In preparation for the 2009 College Football betting season, we will be counting down our list of Top 16 teams for the upcoming year. We will be providing helpful betting situations, free trends and a schedule breakdown for each of the Top 16 College Football teams.
LSU-The Tigers will likely open the season ranked in the Top Ten, but we cannot see them finishing there as the schedule is brutal. Not only does HC Les Miles' team draw both fellow West contenders (Ole Miss and Alabama) on the road, but they also get Florida and Georgia out of the East. They will still be better than last year's team, however, that finished with a losing record in SEC play and was outgained by 3.7 yards per game. The non-conference schedule provides little challenge + LSU is 19-0 straight up all-time vs. non-conference teams under Miles. The season did not end well with losses in three of the final four regular season games (including worst home loss ever under Miles, to Ole Miss, 31-13), but they finished by blowing out a favored Georgia Tech team in the Chic Fil-A Bowl, 35-3. The QB position will be the key after last year's disaster (Perilloux dismissed) where Tigers starters combined to throw 18 INT's and complete only 52.7% of their passes. Here are two key betting situations to keep an eye on: LSU is 12-1 SU prior to a bye week (game vs. Florida will qualify) & 10-1 SU off a loss under Miles. Both situations could be in play for the Florida game as they travel to Georgia the week prior. (Prediction: 8-4, 3rd in SEC West, Cotton Bowl)
BYU- The Cougars are one of four teams from non-BCS schools that we would potentially rank in our Top 25 (Boise State, TCU and Nevada). Last year, many BYU fans were thinking BCS bowl, but the schedule did not set up well as they had to play both TCU and Utah (both finished in the Top 10) on the road. This year, they get both at home where they have won 18 straight games and had the best MOV of any host in the country last year (+35.2 PPG). The last four times the Cougars have started a senior QB, they have won the MWC Title. Senior Max Hall comes off a season where he threw for nearly 4000 yards and had a 35-14 TD-INT ratio. Eight starters return from a defense that set a conference record last year with 11 consecutive shutout quarters. The only issue could be that the preseason favorite has failed to win the MWC each year since 2005. The non-conference schedule, if successfully navigated, will get BYU into a BCS bowl as the Cougars will play Oklahoma and Florida State. Surprisingly, neither is a "true" road game as they open vs. the Sooners in Arlington, Texas and two weeks later will host the Seminoles. While BYU is just 5-3 SU at home vs. BCS schools, they have won the last two by a combined 79-7 margin. (Prediction: 11-1, MWC Champ,Poinsettia Bowl)
Notre Dame- Will this finally be the year for Charlie Weis and the Irish? Back in 2005, Weis stepped into a great situation at South Bend as he inherited QB Brady Quinn and a pro-style offense from his predecessor Ty Willingham. Notre Dame would go on to post a 19-6 SU record in Weis' first two seasons, but were twice embarrassed in BCS bowl games. Then the bottom dropped out in 2007 as they lost everybody and started the year 1-9 putting Weis' job in jeopardy. Last season, they improved to 7-6 and it actually could have been a lot better as they blew double-digit leads in three different games. Of greater importance to Irish fans was the team's 49-21 thrashing of Hawaii at the end of the year, giving the program its first bowl win since 1993. QB Claussen (now a 3rd year starter) looked sensational in that game throwing for 401 yards (on 22-26 passing) & five TD passes and now all the pieces seem to be in place for a legit run at a BCS Title. The schedule has to be considered one of the easiest in recent Notre Dame memory with only one opponent (USC) guaranteed to be ranked in the Top 25 at the start of the season. They venture off campus only five times, with three of the four "true" road games coming against teams that did not go bowling last year and a neutral site game in San Antonio vs. a terrible Washington State team. They should definitely post double-digit wins for the first time since Weis debut campaign.
Oklahoma State - Although all the preseason chatter will rightly center on fellow Big 12 South teams Oklahoma and Texas, do not discount the Cowboys, who have improved in each of Mike Gundy's five years at Stillwater. Last year's edition went 9-4 (started 7-0) with three of those losses coming against Top Ten teams (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma) - two on the road - and the other coming in a lackadaisical bowl effort vs. Oregon. They return seven starters on offense, including QB Robinson, RB Hunter and WR Bryant, which collectively may be the best QB/RB/WR combo in the entire country! The schedule shapes up nicely as OSU avoids most of the major contenders from the North (do host Colorado on a Thurs 11/19) and gets to host Texas on Halloween. Could this mean they will head into the annual Bedlam Series with rival Oklahoma undefeated? Possibly and they can establish themselves as a true contender in Week One with a home date vs. a Georgia team that will be replacing numerous key personnel. Note that the Cowboys have won 15 straight non-conference home games by an average of 33 PPG and also 13 straight home openers.
Penn State - Ohio State is likely to be the preseason favorite to win the Big 10, but we like the Nittany Lions as they get to host the Buckeyes on 11/7. In last year's road win (1st vs. Top 10 team since '99), PSU had zero turnovers or penalties and held OSU to just 14 FD's. Everyone remembers the whipping Joe Pa took in the Rose Bowl vs. USC last January (38-24 - trailed 31-7 at half), but remember that is a de facto home game for the Trojans. What you may have forgotten is that Penn State was one late FG away from a perfect regular season, losing 24-23 to an Iowa team they led 23-14 entering the final quarter. The Nittany Lions were a league best +124.2 YPG, which was 70 yards better than Ohio St, the #2 team. They annihilated Oregon State (beat USC) 45-14 in Week 2, which was one of eight wins by 27 points or more. Yes, this year's edition returns just nine starters, but two of them are senior QB Clark and junior RB Royster. Also, LB Lee returns to leads a very strong corps after missing all of '08 due to injury. There are just four road games on the schedule and three come against non-bowl teams from LY. If they are likely to slip up, we see it coming on 10/3 vs. what will be an improved Illinois team as PSU has lost six of nine conference road openers. (Projection: 11-1, Big 10 Champs, Rose Bowl).
Boise State - The Broncos simply own the WAC and stand to be this year's "BCS Buster." How badly has HC Chris Peterson dominated this conference? How about a 54-2 SU record since 2002 vs. league foes? Last year, BSU completed its second undefeated regular season in three years, but unlike '06 (beat Oklahoma in thrilling Fiesta Bowl) things did not end well as TCU beat them 17-16 in a Poinsettia Bowl matchup of two of the very best non-BCS programs in the country. Over the last seven years, only 10 CFB teams have finished in the Top 20 of both major polls. The Broncos are one of those teams. Along with USC, BSU is the ONLY school to win 80+ games, make a bowl game and win six conference titles during that same span. Once again, they have just one BCS school on the schedule this year and it is an Oregon team they beat LY in Eugene 37-32 as 10pt dogs in a game that was not as close as that final score might seem to indicate. This year, they get to host the Ducks on the blue turf (season opener) and OU is not as good as LY. We forecast BSU to finish the regular season unbeaten for a 3rd time in 4 years and they will make a BCS Bowl. The lone conference test (Nevada) also is a home game where HC Peterson is 19-0 SU all-time. (Projection: 12-0, WAC Champs, BCS Bowl)
USC - Again, the Trojans could have been considered the best team in the country by season's end last year, but could not prove it thanks to a Thursday night loss to Oregon State in the third game of the season. There were questions on offense entering LY, but those asking the Q's were proven silly as the Trojans averaged 37.5 PPG and were +232.7 YPG, the school's best mark since the Title team of '05. There are nine returning starters on that side of the ball this year, but QB is not one of them as Carroll must find a new starting signal caller in BB years for the first time during his tenure. Questions will abound this year on the defensive end as only three starters return from a unit that allowed just 9.0 PPG (#1 in the country) and produced three shutouts (nine opponents held to 10 pts or fewer). The non-conference schedule is rough with trips to both Ohio State and Notre Dame, which coupled with the visit to Berkeley, means they will travel to three teams in our Top 12. We do not see the talent on this year's edition to overcome that. (Projection: 10-2, BCS Bowl).
California - No my editor and I did not miss the "Southern" between the "7" and "California" here. The Bears are the one team that traditionally plays the Trojans tough with four of the last five losses coming by two touchdowns or less. Thanks to the fact that they get USC at home this year (10/3) and play a weaker non-conference slate, I will forecast Cal to end Pete Carroll's streak of seven straight league titles. They do have five conference road games, but three are against teams that were not in a bowl LY. All four losses last year did come on the road. However, here is the reason we like Cal so much this year - RB Jahvid Best, who comes off a phenomenal 2008 where he rushed for 15 touchdowns and 1653 yards on an incredible 8.1 YPC clip! He is one of 15 returning starters and rushed for a school record 311 yards vs. Washington LY and followed that up with another great effort in the Emerald Bowl win over Miami. This team is very strong along both the offensive and defensive line. (Projection: 11-1, Pac 10 Champs, Rose Bowl)
Ole Miss - This is the popular sleeper pick amongst College Football insiders this summer. The Rebels were the only team to beat Florida last year, winning the game 31-30, despite being outgained by 118 yards (were +2 in TO's). Like the Gators, Ole Miss finished the season on fire, outscoring opponents 182-47 over the final four games, culminating in a 47-34 beatdown of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. They also ended a six-game losing streak to LSU during that stretch with a 31-13 outright win as six-point dogs. In six of the last nine years, a 1st or 2nd year coach has led his team to the SEC Title Game (Saban last year) & this year looks like its Houston Nutt's turn. What a great situation he walked into in Oxford with QB Snead (a Texas transfer) leading 15 other returning starters this year. Nutt's predecessor Ed Orgeron was a great recruiter, but went just 10-25 SU in three years. In just his first year, Nutt nearly surpassed Orgeron's win total (went 9-4) and keep in mind all four losses came by seven points or less, including by four at then #1 Alabama. They lost on a last second field goal at Wake Forest and outgained Vanderbilt by 183 yards in another. A very weak schedule (no Florida) means a great shot at a 12-0 regular season (if they beat Alabama at home on 10/10). (Projection: 12-1, SEC Runner Up, Sugar Bowl)
Texas - Once again, all signs point to 10/17 in Dallas as the winner of Texas-OU will win the Big 12. Despite winning last year's meeting 45-35 as six-point underdogs, it will be the Longhorns that enter '09 with a chip on their shoulder as a convoluted tiebreaking scheme resulted in the Sooners, not UT, playing Florida in the BCS Title Game. They return more starters than their Red River Rivals (16 to 14), most importantly QB McCoy, who had a 34-8 TD-INT ratio in '08, but unlike the Sooners lack a dominant rushing game. Remember that in last year's RRR, Texas had just -3 rushing yards in the 1st half before a critical injury to OU LB Ryan Reynolds & the Longhorns would go on to gain 164 yards on the ground at an outstanding 8.2 yard per rush clip! Do not discount a Halloween road date vs. Oklahoma State, who will be playing with revenge for a 24-20 loss in Austin last year that put an end to the Cowboys perfect 7-0 start. The last time Texas visited Stillwater, they trailed 21-0 entering the 4th quarter before outscoring them 24-0 in the final stanza ending with a 40 yd field goal with no time remaining. (Projection: 11-1, Fiesta Bowl)
Oklahoma - QB Sam Bradford (50-8 TD-INT Ratio!) bypassed the NFL Draft and returns to Norman to lead an offense that averaged a phenomenal 51.1 PPG in 2008 and scored 60+ in each of its final five league games. The Sooners failed to prove they were worthy of playing in the BCS Title Game last January, however (selected over a Texas team that beat them during the regular season), as they were held to just 14 pts and 363 total yards. It was HC Stoops' fifth straight BCS Bowl loss, including three straight when the National Title hangs in the balance. Despite only five starters (including Bradford) returning on offense, I will forecast a rematch of last year's Title Game as OU was #1 in the Big 12 at +159 YPG and has the nation's longest home win streak at 24 games. They may boast the strongest backfield tandem in the country with TWO 1000 yard rushers returning. Nine defensive starters are back and once again the Red River Rivalry Game (10/17) vs. Texas will determine the Big 12 South champion and favorite to represent the league in the BCS Title Game. (Projection: 12-1, Big 12 Champion, National Runner-Up)
Florida - This is the strongest defending National Champion College Football has seen in years. Unlike the 2007 team, which lost a ton of talent from a Title team that was fairly fortuitous, this year's Gators return practically everybody. Not only do they return all eleven starters from a defensive unit that allowed just 285 YPG last year, but they return the entire second unit as well! "Only" seven starters return on offense, but one of those is QB Tebow, who will look to become just the 2nd player in history to win multiple Heisman Trophies (Ohio St - Archie Griffin) and the first ever to win College Football's most prestigious award in non-consecutive years. Making matters worse for everyone else is that the schedule sets up favorably as well as they avoid both Ole Miss and Alabama out of the West (until the SEC Title Game that is). Florida has lost to an SEC West team each of the last ten years and this year they must go to Death Valley to play LSU. However, they will be coming off a bye week and Urban Meyer is 26-3 SU all-time when playing with a week off. That leaves only Georgia as a "true test" during the regular season & the Gators have beaten the Bulldogs 16 of the last 19 meetings. Florida won every game last year by double-digits, outscoring opponents on average of 43.6-12.9! (Projection: 13-0, SEC Champion, National Champion)
Now that we've provided you a list of our top 16 teams for the upcoming College Football betting season, we thought it would be a good time to go a little more in depth conference by conference and talk about some of the key betting angles in each league and what to look for. We start where football is king, the SEC.
For the third straight season, the Southeast Conference produced the BCS National Champion. To illustrate how deep this conference is, Georgia entered the year as the consensus #1 team in the country, but it was division mate Florida winning the title for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Gators enter this year as everyone's choice to win the National Championship. They have 18 returning starters, including all 11 on defense (return 22 top tacklers). Urban Meyer's team will certainly be favored in every game, but by how much as they are likely to produce the first unbeaten regular season in CFB by a BCS team since 2006 (Ohio State). Expectations will clearly be down in Athens for Mark Richt in Georgia, but that is when this HC seems to be at his best. In nine years, he has a 30-4 SU road record. That will be put to the test this season with off campus ventures vs. Oklahoma State, Florida and Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs look like a lock to finish second. Tennessee is one of three SEC schools that made a coaching change in the offseason and like his two contemporaries, Lane Kiffin has no previous college head coaching experience. Perhaps it was that inexperience that led to a tumultous offseason, which in turn has painted a huge bullseye on Kiffin's back. Look for the Vols to take some big lumps in high profile SEC games this year. For the first time in his coaching career, Steve Spurrier has become irrelevant at South Carolina. His Gamecocks have done no better than 8-5 and no worse than 6-7 in his four year stay at Columbia. Kiffin's arrival may actually draw some heat away from the Ol' Ball Coach. After making their first bowl in 26 seasons last year, don't be surprised if Vanderbilt suprises again and finishes higher than both Tennessee and South Carolina. The Commies have lost their last six Homecoming games though. Coming off three straight bowl appearances, Kentucky looks like a lock for last place in the East.
The SEC West enters the year as the stronger of the two divisions, which is not usually the case. Six of the last nine years have seen a 1st or 2nd year HC win the division title and after seeing Nick Saban get the job done last year in Tuscaloosa, we like Houston Nutt's betting odds of doing the same this year in Oxford with Ole Miss, despite Alabama being the media's choice. The Oct 10 date between the Rebels and the Crimson Tide will likely decide how the West is won and the winner of that game has a great shot at a perfect 12-0 regular season. LSU is likely to be the 4th SEC team ranked in the top ten at the start of the year, but a daunting schedule will probably have them out of there sooner than later. They must play Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss all on the road and host Florida. Arkansas, under 2nd year HC Bobby Petrino, could be the conference darkhorse. They have beaten LSU each of the last two years. 2008 was a disaster for Auburn, who fired Tommy Tuberville and to little fan fare in steps Gene Chizik, who will return the Tigers to more traditional Auburn football. Tigers fans hope that means winning as they come off their first losing season since '99 as the spread offense and OC Franklin were both a disaster. Winning more will be tough in this deep division, however. Mississippi State is clearly the worst team in the SEC and is a threat to "run the table in reverse"
See full article at www.vegasexpert.blogspot.com - 2009 College Football Top 16 - Part III
- Ohio State - When the "three yards and a cloud of dust" finally settle, it will prove wise that HC Jim Tressel jettisoned senior QB Todd Boeckman in favor of super frosh Terrelle Pryor in game #3 last year (vs. USC) as despite a 10-3 campaign (many tabbed the Buckeyes to be a Nat'l Title contender), it gave Pryor plenty of game experience, which will help this year. Ohio State won all ten games it was favored in a year ago, but lost all three games in which they were an underdog. Tressel has promised to "open up the offense" during the offseason, which is the right move considering how sensational Pryor looked out of the pocket in a Fiesta Bowl loss to a Texas team that came in looking much better on paper. They will get USC in Columbus this year in a big revenge game where they will be getting an inexperienced Trojans signal caller in his first big game. The only problem is that Ohio State struggles very badly out of conference against quality foes (1 non-conf road win last three seasons) as they always look very slow. If they do beat USC, then the game vs. Penn State will certainly determine the Big Ten title (prob will regardless) and which Big Ten team possibly goes undefeated. How funny is it that the Michigan game no longer seems to matter as they are on a school record five-game win streak vs. the Maize and Blue (Tressel is 7-1 SU all-time vs. his main rival)?
Alabama - Despite facing the nation's most difficult schedule, the Tide raced out to 12-0 start and the #1 ranking in the country entering the SEC Title Game. Despite being a 10-point underdog vs. Florida, 'Bama gave a game effort losing 31-20, costing them a shot at playing for a National Title in just Saban's second season in Tuscaloosa. The same could not be said for the team's effort in the Sugar Bowl vs. BCS Buster Utah, who raced out to a three touchdown lead in the 1st Quarter and never looked back handing Alabama an embarrassing loss. There has already been a textbook scandal in the offseason, which could prove distracting. They return just four starters on offense. Still, despite playing two Top 13 teams away from home, they figure to be favored in 11 of 12 games. The season opener vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta) should serve as a great barometer as was LY's opener vs. an ACC foe (34-10 outright win over Clemson). If they can win that game and then again on 10/10 at Ole Miss, then the Tide has a great shot at another unbeaten regular season as they avoid both Florida and Georgia out of the East and get LSU at home.
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2009 Pac 10 Preview
2009 Pac 10 Preview
For seven consecutive seasons, Pete Carroll's Trojans of Southern California have reigned supreme in the Pac 10. Each of the last two years, it could be argued that USC was the best team in the country at season's end, but on neither occasion did they get to play for the BCS Title as early season losses cost them a shot at doing so. As we prepare to enter the 2009 season, all the talk surrounding the Pac 10 Conference is about how if there was ever a year where Southern Cal was NOT going to win the league, it will be this year.
Be careful picking against the Trojans however as only one of the conference's other nine teams stands a chance at unseating them and that would be California, who faces an easier non-conference schedule and gets to host Pete Carroll's team on October 3rd.
Here is our outlook for the 2009 Pac 10 Conference:
Count us in on the bandwagon of folks that believe Cal will unseat USC atop the Pac 10 standings. The Bears return 15 starters, most importantly the best RB in the country, Jahvid Best, who ran for an astounding 8.1 yards per carry in 2008! As mentioned above, they get to host USC on 10/3. The Bears still must play five Pac 10 road games, but only one of them comes against a team that went bowling last season. More importantly, there are too many issues with USC to pick them to win an eighth straight league title. For the first time in Carroll's tenure, he will be starting consecutive seasons with a new QB and this year it will be true freshman Matt Barkley. All this true frosh has to do is navigate a first half schedule that includes three road trips to face teams that rank in our top 12 in the country (Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame). Way too difficult a task.
The two sleeper, darkhorse picks from Pac 10 insiders this year are Arizona and Stanford. Last year saw Arizona HC Mike Stoops (Bob's younger brother) lead the program to its first bowl game since '98, so there is plenty of reason for optimism in Tucson. However, the loss of Willie Tuitama at QB is going to hurt. So too does road trips to both Cal and USC as well as a non-conference road date with Iowa. On the other hand, we love what Jim Harbaugh has done at Stanford. The Cardinal should have been playing in a bowl last year, but lost its final three games and had three losses by a TD or less. They close the season with USC, Cal and Notre Dame, but only one of those games is away from Palo Alto.
Oregon had been a model of consistency in this league under former HC Mike Belotti, but new man Chip Kelly inherits just nine returning starters. Expect a drop in the standings. In-state rival Oregon State has also been very consistent (three straight 3rd place finishes) and has one of the best RB in the country in Jacquizz Rodgers. The cause for concern is just three returning starters on defense. We like UCLA to make a jump in the standings and return to a bowl in HC Rick Neuheisel's second season with 16 starters back. Their 44 starts lost to injury were 6th most in FBS last year.
Looking at the bottom of the league, we start with Arizona State, who better get off to at least a 4-2 start because the second half of the schedule sees few opportunities for victories. Washington, by definition, can only improve (winless last year) under 1st year HC Steve Sarkisian and the Huskies actually possess the league's best signal caller in playmaker Jake Locker. Washington State is a disaster as they were a miserable -272.7 YPG in league play last year, getting outscored by an average of 41 PPG.
Key Pac 10 Betting Angles
California is 5-0 SU vs. the Big 10 since 2002 with an avg win by 16 PPG. They have a big revenge spot to open the season vs. Maryland as LY they lost at College Station (9:00 AM PST start) falling behind 21-3 before a 3 TD 4th quarter rally fell short.
USC has won eight straight non-conference BCS road games. Since 2002, the Trojans are 8-0 SU off a regular season loss with an avg margin of victory coming by 20 PPG. They have outscored Notre Dame by 27 PPG since 2002.
Stanford is just 4-7 SU vs. the ACC and will be making just its 3rd road trip to the EST since '98 when they face Wake Forest in Wk 2. They have lost 12 of 16 to UCLA, including five straight. The home team has won eight of nine in Stanford/Arizona State games.
Arizona is 4-0 all-time vs. the MAC w/ avg MOV by 25 PPG. They have lost 9 of 10 to Oregon State and seven straight to USC (by avg of 21 PPG). Home team is 5-1 SU when Arizona plays Arizona State.
UCLA has suffered five straight losses at USC by an average of 25 PPG. The host in the Bruins/Cal series has won nine straight times.
Oregon State is just 4-19-1 vs. OSU since 1980 and the visitor in this series has lost eight of nine. Visitor had lost 10 straight in rivalry with Oregon before road wins each of the last two years.
Oregon is 28-2 SU at home vs. non-conf teams, but lost vs. Boise State last year. Ducks are 6-2 L8 vs. UCLA with home team winning three straight.
Arizona State is 0-4 vs. the SEC. They have lost four straight to Oregon by an average of 24 PPG.
Washington has lost all three BCS non-conf home games since '04 by an avg of 26 PPG.
Washington State is 1-5 SU vs. non-conf BCS teams with avg loss coming by 22 PPG.
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NFL Week 4 Preview (Week 2)
NFL Week 4 Preview (Week 2)
Detroit at Chicago - The streak is finally over in the Motor City as the Lions won for the first time in 20 games last week, upsetting Washington at home, 17-14, as 9.5-point home dogs. It's been awhile since this trend was applicable, but Detroit is 1-9 ATS on the road off a SU win as a home dog. Now they question is: can the Lions win two straight? Ironically, the franchise's last road win came here in Chicago, 16-7, back in the seventh game of the '07 season. They have not won BB games since a three-game win streak that was sandwiched around that victory. The odds makers certainly do not like the Lions chances, opening them as 12-point underdogs here, but note that Chicago is just 1-7 ATS as DD chalk. The Bears had failed to cover seven-straight pre-bye week games before a 48-41 home win over Minnesota last year.
Tampa Bay at Washington - This looks like a horrific game for fans of offense. Tampa Bay has scored just 41 points in three games while Washington is one point worse at 40. Totals bettors will want to know that the Redskins have gone Under eight straight times when favored. As bad as the Bucs have looked, it is difficult to imagine Washington being favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone. In their last 11 games, they have scored 20 or more points just once. After losing in Detroit last week, Redskins HC Jim Zorn's job would be in major jeopardy were he to lose here. The Bucs have made a QB change, unseating Byron Leftwich for Josh Johnson. Tampa Bay has lost seven straight, dating back to last year, and have a challenging October schedule on tap.
Seattle at Indianapolis - The Colts played their best game of '09 Sunday night in Arizona and don't look now, but Peyton Manning and company are now one of seven remaining unbeatens. Seattle has lost two straight after winning its opener. The Seahawks have gone just 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS on the non-conference road since 2002. They are also just 19-44 ATS in the month of October. Off BB road wins on national TV, Indy already has a two-game lead in the AFC South. They are 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS when hosting NFC opponents. The team's 122 yards rushing last week was the most they've had in game since October 28, 2007.
- NFL Week 4 Preview (Week 2)
- NY Giants at Kansas City - What looks like the biggest mismatch on paper in Week 4 could be a potential trap spot for the G-Men. There is a very real possibility they could be 5-0 heading into a road date with New Orleans in Week 6 (they play Oakland next week), but they must fight off taking the 0-3 Chiefs too lightly. This will be the Giants 1st visit to Arrowhead in 14 seasons. That being said, they have covered 17 of their last 20 road games. Last week's shutout was the franchise's first since 2005 and first on the road since 1983! Over the last 21 games, Kansas City actually has the same record as the Lions (2-19 SU).
- NFL Week 4 Preview (Part 3)
- NY Jets at New Orleans - This is the marquee game on the Week 4 schedule and the only battle of 3-0 teams. You might be surprised to see the unbeaten Jets come in as a 6.5-point underdog, but take note that they were outgained by nearly a 3:1 margin over the final three quarters by the Titans last week and benefited from two Tennessee turnovers on special teams. Mark Sanchez is the first QB in NFL history to start a season 3-0 SU. The Saints have scored 23 or more points in 13 straight games (40 PPG this year), but did it with defense last week, holding the Bills to just seven points. Lost in the team's great start is a newfound ability to run the ball as New Orleans is averaging 170+ yards per game on the ground through 3 games.
Buffalo at Miami - While the Jets and Patriots grab the headlines in the AFC East, the loser of this game is in major trouble. In fact, the Dolphins may have already sunk with an 0-3 start and they have lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the year. Chad Henne (Michigan) starts here. Miami swept Buffalo, SU and ATS, last year, but are on a 3-14 ATS run as divisional hosts since 2003. The Bills are 7-3 ATS on the division road. Monitor the Terrell Owens situation as the malcontent WR did not have a catch last week for the first time in 185 games, the 3rd longest such streak in NFL history.
St. Louis at San Francisco - Well, the Rams are improving week by week, but their 24 points scored are a league worst and now it appears that QB Marc Bulger will be lost for extended time. This is a notoriously slow starting team with a 1-10 ATS mark the first month of the season the past three years. The Niners come off a crushing defeat in Minnesota, losing on the game's final play. San Francisco has dominated this NFC West rivalry since 1992, going 22-10 ATS. St. Louis has lost nine straight division games by an average of 17.1 PPG, but their last win NFC West win did come here, 13-9, back in 2007. This is the most points the 49ers have been favored by since Week 14 of the 2003 season. They have only been favored 14 times since that game, a 50-14 win over Arizona.
